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Osbourne One-Nil

The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

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Dew point at 1430- 1.7c

at 1530- 1.4c

at 1620 (now)- 1.1c

Slowly, but surely heading in the right direction- will be on the mac by 530- so will have a look at the SES build-up.

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Sun setting, lamp-posts lighting up, darkness and stratocumulus-- you cannot beat it.

Dew point up to 1.2c.

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Fairly poor 12z from both the GFS and METO - tonight may be our best shot all week :(

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I wouldn't worry alza- the 500hpa charts still seem sure of eventual retrogression- and under the current pattern, undercutting and advancing cold upper troughs are likely- anyway, don't look past 96 for your health :)

Radar pepped stuff up it seems-- 12z NMM looks okay, we see -8c and -9c uppers for much of tomorrow.

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So are you guys confident of seeing snow during the easterly that will happen! Certainly the flow is there and the uppers are there.

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Rattlesnakes- dew point at 1.8c!

I don't think dew points are expected to drop below freezing until after 9pm tonight, until then i'm not expecting much :rolleyes:

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Rattlesnakes- dew point at 1.8c!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Serves you right for all them times you took the mickey out of my temperature! :D :D :D :lol: :rofl:

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:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Serves you right for all them times you took the mickey out of my temperature! :D :D :D :lol: :rofl:

Pfft, you will most likely see no snow for at least a week-- you had to go to a mountain range to get your snow fix :D

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I was surprised at how much shower activity there was out in the North Sea last night, but it made me less surprised at today's convective show. Currently rain and a few blobs of sleet at Cleadon and 2.8C (as a result, I won't be reporting the first sleet/snow free January here since 1992 or 1989). I was out in inland North Yorkshire earlier today where there was a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow and, due to being further inland, temperatures were 1-2C lower.

Tonight's model runs have toned down the pool of warmer drier air at the 500hPa level for Tuesday so we should keep some showers firing off the North Sea during tomorrow and Tuesday, though tending to become lighter and more scattered on Tuesday. As colder air digs in the showers should increasingly turn to snow, though probably not providing more than a dusting at any one location.

The issue from Wednesday onwards is wind direction. I have little doubt that if we keep a generally easterly flow and send that cold pool in off the continent, we will see the convection pep up in the North Sea and bring sharp snow showers to coastal areas, though inland penetration will be dependent on the strength of the airflow. However, tonight's UKMO and GFS have a ridge of high pressure sinking south (a consequence of the Scandinavian/Russian high being too far east and more energy going into the northern arm of the jet), and if the UKMO verifies the easterly and associated showers will have fizzled out already by Wednesday. GFS at least gives us a shot at a day of sunshine and snow showers on Thursday before the ridge to our north collapses south. The pattern for late next week is very volatile though and there is still a chance that the UKMO/GFS could be sinking the ridge too quickly.

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Temp of 1.1 and dp of -0.3 at medomsley which is the nearest i can find to me,so i'm optimistic

of some wettish snow when the ppn comes in off the coast.

The sky has that pinky colour to it at the moment,which often bodes well.

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Pfft, you will most likely see no snow for at least a week-- you had to go to a mountain range to get your snow fix :D

That's okay, take your light snow showers whilst I bask in temperatures below -5C struggling to make 0C during the day.

Going to Snowdonia was a great choice, loved it as always. :D

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post-12276-0-96481100-1327861184_thumb.gpost-12276-0-96211800-1327861187_thumb.g

The current scenario- dew points around the wrong side of marginal, 950's on the edge.

post-12276-0-04745000-1327861257_thumb.gpost-12276-0-63242800-1327861260_thumb.g

9pm- dew points borderline freezing, 950's on the right side.

post-12276-0-16494400-1327861310_thumb.gpost-12276-0-41826300-1327861313_thumb.g

Midnight- dew points crawl below freezing, 950's stabilise.

It's going to be VERY interesting- things should cool to allow much of the region to be on the RIGHT side of marginal- apart from the usual suspects.

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actually warming here,up to 1.2c from 0.7 lol.

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Very heavy rain? btwn The Wear and Tyne....yet another instance of unforecasted precip off the sea...pity it's a couple of degrees too warm!!

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Bit shocked that some of you found today a bit surprising, it kinda headed as I was expecting, cloudy, misty and showery rain all thanks to a trough which some of you pointed out earlier.

Todays PPN was not convective at all, the speckly PPN over in the North Sea to the east of NE Scotland is convective PPN as the cloud looks more speckly but generally, the air over the North Sea is stable despite the cold uppers hence why I was not too surprised by the GFS PPN charts as the thicknesses were too high despite the cold uppers.

Not too confident about the rest of the week, I always fear a lack of PPN might be an issue here and I could be right.

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Bit shocked that some of you found today a bit surprising, it kinda headed as I was expecting, cloudy, misty and showery rain all thanks to a trough which some of you pointed out earlier.

Todays PPN was not convective at all, the speckly PPN over in the North Sea to the east of NE Scotland is convective PPN as the cloud looks more speckly but generally, the air over the North Sea is stable despite the cold uppers hence why I was not too surprised by the GFS PPN charts as the thicknesses were too high despite the cold uppers.

Not too confident about the rest of the week, I always fear a lack of PPN might be an issue here and I could be right.

Hindsight's a wonderfull thing!! In post 29 of this thread you appear to suggest little precip today, now as it's happning you're suggesting you knew we would be seeing heavy prolonged rain at the coast?!!

I'm impressed you knew this would happen.

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The big 3 all show a pretty dry easterly overall, though some of us should still see an inch or two this week I'd have thought.

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The big 3 all show a pretty dry easterly overall, though some of us should still see an inch or two this week I'd have thought.

Starting with tonight?

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2.2c/1.0c currently- give it another 2 hours imo.

Ill check again at 10 then

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