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Osbourne One-Nil

The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

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We need the wind to turn more to the East... is it due to today?

Surface winds SE- becoming ESE on tues.. 850hpa winds however E/ESE- and they are most important as they are what guide convective clouds and shower movement.

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SES-- sea effect snow.. I wouldn't worry about rain alza, uppers are generally 0.5c to 1c higher uppers-- and a longer sea flow- meaning more modification. Plus, uppers are slowly falling across the north sea.

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SES-- sea effect snow.. I wouldn't worry about rain alza, uppers are generally 0.5c to 1c higher uppers-- and a longer sea flow- meaning more modification. Plus, uppers are slowly falling across the north sea.

I see :winky: So many abbreviations these days we may need a Netweather Guide!

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Some rain falling here, might be slightly sleety, won't know for sure until i get the precip. type radar later today, for now i'm gonna hide in the Metro Centre!

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would not surprise me if we saw some mesoscale activity popping up out of nowhere in the next 24-48 hours under this scenario, the temp gradient as the cold uppers cross over the North Sea may well be upwards of 12C by later today.

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Mostly rain at 70m asl-- some sleet. 8 miles from the sea-- another degree colder at then a lot more snow than rain.

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Rain here! Good God, this isn't what we've signed up for!!!

Country Tracks forecast earlier has snow for us on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday in the form of convective showers.

Bring it on :p

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Finding it sooo promising how alive the North Sea is today when comparing it to how slack the easterly flow is,

h500slp.png

If we can get showers with moderately low uppers today with a slack flow, then we're pretty much guaranteed some snow fall when the uppers drop further, even if we're still in a relatively slack flow like today! :)

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Heavy rain now, very little sleet at all.

Finding it sooo promising how alive the North Sea is today when comparing it to how slack the easterly flow is,

http://cdn.nwstatic..../06/h500slp.png

If we can get showers with moderately low uppers today with a slack flow, then we're pretty much guaranteed some snow fall when the uppers drop further, even if we're still in a relatively slack flow like today! :)

I've never been worried about that - unless the models totally flip we'll get a covering this week.

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I've never been worried about that - unless the models totally flip we'll get a covering this week.

I think my worries have just left! :)

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Unexpected sleet falling here. Temp 2.2 and falling.

It just shows the potential for PPN once we get a feed off the north sea. It cannot be forecast as Dec 2010 proved, when there were many occasions where snow arrived when not forecast.

HUGE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THIS WEEK and radar can sometimes be the only way to forecast it.

I got some snow socks for my BMW for christmas and they have not been out the packet yet. I think I will go out this afternoon and trial fit them!!!

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Few more days and the ppn we're seeing won't even be marginal for snow , something to be excited about :drinks:

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850hpa temperature, 29 January

2pm: -6c

4pm: -6.5c

6pm: -6.5c

8pm: -7c

10pm: -7.5c

Midnight: -8c

That's the hi-res NMM predictions for upper temps in Sunderland today- gradually cooler.. The very cold uppers (-10c and below) enclose on us tonight- a strong fetch with low wind shear.

--remember, this is a slack flow with fronts enclosing- conditions are marginal, no upper trough/cold pool to dig into and no real instability.. The least snowiest easterly around with -5c uppers or less- the ingredients are ripe for heavy snowfall towards next week however.

It won't stop me from tracking this event though- those under persistent shower activity o/night may see a covering tomorrow morning.

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Good to see some wintryness in some of the showers today and getting a fair way inland

considering the lack of wind.

An area of higher dewpoints spreading across the region this afternoon should be

gone by tonight and are forecast to remain below zero for the rest of the week.

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Great to see that the first showers of the easterly are already of wintry nature already. Very interested to see what the next 2-4 days have in store for us with this easterly flow and colder uppers. I see that NAE charts are showing -10C uppers as early as tommorow whereas on the GFS charts the nearest -10C uppers are in Eastern Poland? I think in the next few days we may see a few surprises with snow showers in eastern areas because the uppers are cold enough and flow is there. I think the Scots are also in the same boat as the north of england in terms of the slack flow next week but features can come out of nothing so next week could have a lot of potential. And by this time next week, the models may well be showing the cold spell continuing to epic proportions.

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Country Tracks forecasts showed a peppering of snow for the Pennines on Tuesday- the FAX charts also show a trough feature moving into eastern coastal parts tomorrow this moving SE but dissapating - it all suggests convection will kick into gear tomorrow over the N Sea, with N Eng and E Scotland most prone to shower activity. Definately a developing situation and a wait and see - with very cold uppers forecast the models will struggle to identify such features and I wouldn't be surprised if some parts of the region more so the east get a few surprise snowfalls next week.

Later in the week - uppers and covection will properly kick into gear, again the models and forecasts won't pick up on such developments until the very near timescale.

Next week is going to be very much a case of 'nowcasting' - as is the case in all good cold spells.

Back to today - we have grey laden skies here and it feels very raw with temps stuck at 2 degrees, its the sort of day when a snow grain could appear out of nowhere - it reminds me of the 31st Jan 2009 before the snowy easterly arrived. It also reminds me of many days way back in Jan and March 96 when we had a very slack light easterly/southeasterly airflow.

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I'm sure you guys know this as well as we do but models, even mesoscale models like the NMM, ALWAYS underestimate North Sea convection. Key things to look at are the uppers, dewpoints, fax charts for fronts/troughs and direction/strength/convergence in the flow. I doubt it'll be cold enough for snow proper even quite far inland until after sunset but shower activity should continue and possibly even prep up slightly overnight.

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I'm sure you guys know this as well as we do but models, even mesoscale models like the NMM, ALWAYS underestimate North Sea convection. Key things to look at are the uppers, dewpoints, fax charts for fronts/troughs and direction/strength/convergence in the flow. I doubt it'll be cold enough for snow proper even quite far inland until after sunset but shower activity should continue and possibly even prep up slightly overnight.

Exactly- I think the NAE, NMM and FAX are very important- but I don't look at the precip values- SES is unpredictable- making an educated estimate based on uppers, 850 and 950 available on NAE- sst's, dewpoints, theta-e and more.

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Just to add, one thing I noticed with a lot of regualrity over the last two winters is that the forecasts never picked up on some of the heavy falls of snow (few hours worth of snow at a time) so definitely nowcasting as some have already suggested, is most certainly the case.

All the stresses of model watching over the past two weeks are now about to come to fruition. Time to sit back, relax, enjoy and watch events unfold.

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Back at home now, a promising 3.1c, dew point 1.7c. Some evaporative cooling and slowly cooling uppers should see to that dew point.

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Just started snowing here!

lol,that was brief!

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