The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Snowstorm1]

Yes they are breaking out further north lets hope for a nice suprise, they seem to be breaking out where the flow is stronger and the 850s are down to -10 or -11.

If they are making it to not much further than here already got to be some hope surely and can you post a link mate?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have my doubts, but I can certainly see the shower activity developing further south (snow showers recently reported at Norwich Airport for example) and the GFS 18Z tones Friday's North Sea trough up somewhat, mainly affecting East Anglia but it comes extremely close to bringing snowfalls onshore in NE England too.

If the GFS 18Z verifies the whole of this region (both Cumbria and the North East) can expect significant frontal snow on Saturday. I am wary of the possibility that if the frontal zone is revised even further west it may mean that the snowfalls struggle to get east of the Pennines, but as it currently stands the models are moving towards a snow event for all rather than a snow to rain event for the east and rain for the west.

[seabreeze86]

Tried posting radar image but no joy (not to good on computers) the showers are just north of hull so quite away to push north yet but lets hope they do, some positivity in this thread for a change hey

[Snowstorm1]

Tried posting radar image but no joy (not to good on computers) the showers are just north of hull so quite away to push north yet but lets hope they do, some positivity in this thread for a change hey

link mate?

[damianslaw]

I have my doubts, but I can certainly see the shower activity developing further south (snow showers recently reported at Norwich Airport for example) and the GFS 18Z tones Friday's North Sea trough up somewhat, mainly affecting East Anglia but it comes extremely close to bringing snowfalls onshore in NE England too.

If the GFS 18Z verifies the whole of this region (both Cumbria and the North East) can expect significant frontal snow on Saturday. I am wary of the possibility that if the frontal zone is revised even further west it may mean that the snowfalls struggle to get east of the Pennines, but as it currently stands the models are moving towards a snow event for all rather than a snow to rain event for the east and rain for the west.

One thing we have in our favour in this part of the country is our hilly topography - the air will be cooled as it hits the lakeland fells causing evaporative cooling to take hold which will keep those temps down and help to maintain the snow. Places with a little height will keep the snow for longest - warm fronts can be very sluggish affairs when they bump into frigid cold air as the cold air is much denser. We are a long way off the potential event but things do look very promising for quite long lasting snow, and with heights building behind the front- I don't foresee a rapid thaw or a rapid snow to heavy rain event - light drizzly sleet to the rear of the front quickly fizzling out.

[seabreeze86]

link mate?

Its on net weather extra so pointless posting link unless you have subscribed sorry mate

[Snowstorm1]

Its on net weather extra so pointless posting link unless you have subscribed sorry mate

Ive got the radar sub? ah anyways im off night bud hope we wake upto some white stuff

[Cloud 10]

If they are making it to not much further than here already got to be some hope surely and can you post a link mate?

Shows up well on the netweather euro radar.

Nice to see something happening anyway.

[Thundery wintry showers]

One thing we have in our favour in this part of the country is our hilly topography - the air will be cooled as it hits the lakeland fells causing evaporative cooling to take hold which will keep those temps down and help to maintain the snow. Places with a little height will keep the snow for longest - warm fronts can be very sluggish affairs when they bump into frigid cold air as the cold air is much denser. We are a long way off the potential event but things do look very promising for quite long lasting snow, and with heights building behind the front- I don't foresee a rapid thaw or a rapid snow to heavy rain event - light drizzly sleet to the rear of the front quickly fizzling out.

The risk with that is the "several hours of proper snow followed by a partial slushy thaw and then refreeze leaving solid ice" sort of issue- for this reason the front is probably positioned a little too far east for comfort as far as Cumbria (especially on low ground) is concerned. Perhaps the optimal scenario for snow lovers across the region would be for the front to progress east on Saturday as shown by GFS 18Z but then stall on Sunday instead of heading further east- that way the milder air would really struggle to make it into Cumbria, while the North East would still get a fair amount.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

-7.2º this morning, which is the lowest of the winter so far.

[4wd]

It's a steely grey morning here with quite heavy (but not low) cloud layer and -2C

It's rare to get decent frost with almost no white hoar.

[dave79]

Hi guys,

Whats on the agenda for us then come the weekend?

From what I been reading its looks like the action is going to be pretty much down south. I quite like the look of our chances this weekend, been quite close to the coast, we may get a few showers moving in, lets hope so anyway.

[NickR]

Hi guys,

Whats on the agenda for us then come the weekend?

Disappointment, Pennine-cursing, snow-envy towards the southerners, and zero balls on the lottery.

[dave79]

Disappointment, Pennine-cursing, snow-envy towards the southerners, and zero balls on the lottery.

Really, its just not ment to be for us this winter is it, still theres hope for us yet ( I think ) how may times have I thought that this winter

[P-M]

Well according to the latest PPN output it looks like we could see the white stuff.... in fact the local bbc weather on the bbc.co.uk said snow on the way - ok North Yorkshire was mentioned but it's a very fine balance IMHO..I really don't think we will tell until almost 0hrs!

Also to add now we know what the Southerners felt like last in 2010 when we were buried under piles of the white stuff!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Paul-Michael

[Teesdale]

SE has done very well the last few years. Dec 2010 the rapid thaw on the 9th ment there was more snow in central London than on the summits of the Pennines.

[P-M]

SE has done very well the last few years. Dec 2010 the rapid thaw on the 9th ment there was more snow in central London than on the summits of the Pennines.

To be fair putting it in to perspective the north faired much better than London and the SE in that particular spell. I am not disputing your post but no doubt they sat there at the radar day after day while the NE and Scotland received huge snowfalls from convective showers - bring those days back for me :-(

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Still -5.8º here, which isn't bad for 10am.

[recklessabandon]

Is it me or is the air exceptionally dry? i know we expect lower humidity from PC but this feels pretty exceptional especially how dry the roads are and the lack of any hoar or ice after a sharp frost....

[Snowstorm1]

For the weekend very uncertain.

Atm Northeast england looks in a good position however the primespots id say are southern half of NE England and Yorkshire is my bet 5cm - 10cm

[NickR]

To be fair putting it in to perspective the north faired much better than London and the SE in that particular spell. I am not disputing your post but no doubt they sat there at the radar day after day while the NE and Scotland received huge snowfalls from convective showers - bring those days back for me :-(

Many parts of the SE had over a foot in December, as well as lower temps than us here in the NE, so I've got no sense of "it's their turn". We got more days of snowin Nov/Dec 2010, but in terms of lying snow they fared pretty much just as well as most places here away from higher ground, and did much better in terms of nighttime minima.

[Aaron]

Parts of the SE got over a foot on the 1st but it quickly melted on the 3rd, but the snow persisted further north until the 9th.

BTW, Redesdale Camp in Northumberland fell to -17C in December 2010.. while Topcliffe in NY fell to -19C.. these are all frost hollows, just like the ones in the south (i.e Benson)

During favourable set ups such as E winds, the south does fare well, especially when they get channel lows, but on average Durham is probably the snowiest city in England. London can go 2 years or more with no snow but that definitely does not happen in the NE.

Sorry for invading your forum.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Aaron

[NickR]

Parts of the SE got over a foot on the 1st but it quickly melted on the 3rd, but the snow persisted further north until the 9th.

BTW, Redesdale Camp in Northumberland fell to -17C in December 2010.. while Topcliffe in NY fell to -19C.. these are all frost hollows, just like the ones in the south (i.e Benson)

During favourable set ups such as E winds, the south does fare well, especially when they get channel lows, but on average Durham is probably the snowiest city in England. London can go 2 years or more with no snow but that definitely does not happen in the NE.

Sorry for invading your forum.

We're not that high here in Durham, though. I've looked but can't find any stats... anyone know what is officially the snowiest city in England? I know Consett is the snowiest town (not counting Alston which is at considerable height).

[4wd]

Sheffield maybe

[P-M]

Well despite which part of the UK got more snow this weekend is looking good SO FAR that is for us in the NE. Going by the PPN forecast I would say that anywhere south of maybe Blyth (I may be looking at that wrong) could see this as snow. I suppose what I am saying is that not all is lost and we still have a chance to see some significant snowfall from this... on the other hand it could go tits up and we end up with rain!