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Osbourne One-Nil

The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

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Good to have a proper regional thread back for the best part of England... do we HAVE to include Stockton?

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Good to have a proper regional thread back for the best part of England... do we HAVE to include Stockton?

YES :p

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Great to have the Far North regional back, looking forward to some real winter weather, the -5 850hpa isotherm barely leaves us for the entire GFS 6Z run, exciting times!

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Got much milder than forecast here: 6.4°C was max a few hours ago. THe BBC consistently seem to underestimate temps here. I remember Xmas day 2010, when they were forecasting 0°C max, and it reached 3°C with significant snowmelt... they were even running with those temps when it already WAS 3°C!

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The ecm and gfs 12z runs are insane if they came off (not saying they will) we would see constant snow showers and severe frosts inland, coastal regions ie me would see shower after shower with the temperture gradient of 19 to 22 degrees the convection would be tremendous. Snowstorm1 we can safely say if this cold spell came off as the ecm and gfs have it at the min your college would be closed :good:

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The ecm and gfs 12z runs are insane if they came off (not saying they will) we would see constant snow showers and severe frosts inland, coastal regions ie me would see shower after shower with the temperture gradient of 19 to 22 degrees the convection would be tremendous. Snowstorm1 we can safely say if this cold spell came off as the ecm and gfs have it at the min your college would be closed :good:

I know the SE brigade are looking at serious depths... but would we be somewhere close to what they get then?

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The ecm and gfs 12z runs are insane if they came off (not saying they will) we would see constant snow showers and severe frosts inland, coastal regions ie me would see shower after shower with the temperture gradient of 19 to 22 degrees the convection would be tremendous. Snowstorm1 we can safely say if this cold spell came off as the ecm and gfs have it at the min your college would be closed :good:

Lol GETTIN Im buzzing with joy at the moment :) So tomorrow night still game on then IF? tell us.... :D Im hungry for snow now and I want XXXXXXXXXL Portions in the coming weeks :D yummmy

I know the SE brigade are looking at serious depths... but would we be somewhere close to what they get then?

Yep Id say so :)

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If the 12z GFS or ECM came off we'd easily be looking at 20-30cm - we had that in around 5 days last November with -8 uppers, so -15 uppers would surely bury us. Feb 1991 and Jan 87 were both severe easterlies, and they both delivered 20-30cm widely in the NE. We got as much as the SE in both those cases, apart from Kent in 87 which saw ridiculous totals.

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Let's get down to brass tacks, when's it going to snow, how cold will it get and how much snow will there be in Newcastle?

That question goes to Mr Happy (OON) :p

Or anyone who cares to answer actually!

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I think the North Sea is going to be our best friend again from around 3pm onwards tomorrow we'll start to see the showers get nearer and nearer! Chance of flurries is definitely on, and will be just a tiny little taster of what's to come :)

With at least a 10C, heading towards +20C temperature differential possible by next week, i'm hoping its enough to stave off the high atmospheric pressure.

Does anyone know of a past event in which we had +1030mb pressure, bit still lots of snow showers from the north sea over our region?

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I think the North Sea is going to be our best friend again from around 3pm onwards tomorrow we'll start to see the showers get nearer and nearer! Chance of flurries is definitely on, and will be just a tiny little taster of what's to come :)

With at least a 10C, heading towards +20C temperature differential possible by next week, i'm hoping its enough to stave off the high atmospheric pressure.

Does anyone know of a past event in which we had +1030mb pressure, bit still lots of snow showers from the north sea over our region?

9th Jan 2010 I think - we had 2cm of fresh snow here, but the flow became milder after 12 hours. Also Jan 2003 saw a few inches with high pressure centered over SE Scotland. We'd definitely be seeing snow with 1030mb pressure as long as there is an easterly flow and -10 to -15 uppers, and probably a lot of it.

This could still go pear shaped mind, it wouldn't take much for the severe cold to be shunted into France instead.

EDIT: 20-30cm in Feb 1991 with 1035mb pressure.

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I know the SE brigade are looking at serious depths... but would we be somewhere close to what they get then?

With 850 temps that low over the north sea anywere down the east coast of britain would be at risk of deep snow, there would be regional differences due to the covective nature of the showers, But i would urge caution a cold spell is now in the bag but as cold as the ecm gfs are showing has a few hurdles to cross yet but i would go for 60/40 in favour of severe cold if the UKMO joins the party(by the way the UKMO is still a belting run just not on the same level as the other big 2) on the 0z tommorow then that would go up to 70/30. Anyway just enjoy these charts as they are incredible :drinks:

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This could still go pear shaped mind, it wouldn't take much for the severe cold to be shunted into France instead.

Go and wash your mouth out :nea:

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9th Jan 2010 I think - we had 2cm of fresh snow here, but the flow became milder after 12 hours. Also Jan 2003 saw a few inches with high pressure centered over SE Scotland. We'd definitely be seeing snow with 1030mb pressure as long as there is an easterly flow and -10 to -15 uppers, and probably a lot of it.

This could still go pear shaped mind, it wouldn't take much for the severe cold to be shunted into France instead.

EDIT: 20-30cm in Feb 1991 with 1035mb pressure.

Yeah i think 9th Jan 2010 was decent, well surely if the flow isn't cut off then we would end up getting more snowfall! And i think uppers could be much lower this time with the look of that cold pool. Hopefully a Feb 1991 as you say!

Let's hope it doesn't go pear shaped, and if it does, then at least we've still got Sunday and Monday to look forward too :)

Well not Monday really i'm doing some surveying outside :rolleyes: A nice African breeze would be nice in the hour or two when i'm in the cold :winky:

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I'm not being funny but isn't this just bloody fantastsic - what we are looking at right now?

The last two winters have delivered some brilliant snowfalls and some very cold temperatures which I honestly didn't think we'd ever see again, what with all this talk of the 'large teapot' throughout the past 15 or so years.

But incredibly we could be looking at a third consecutive winter delivering the goods in terms of cold and snow!

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What does people think of tommorrow evening/overnight into monday morning ?

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What does people think of tommorrow evening/overnight into monday morning ?

I think it'll only affect the far west of the mainland to b ehonest, as TEITS has alluded on the model thread, the precip just can't make head way because of the strength of the block.

Are we really going to see any snow showers here in th enorth east before midweek? I'm not convinced we will ...

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What does people think of tommorrow evening/overnight into monday morning ?

The uppers are cold enough for low land snow but there wont be to much precip around but cant rule out some snow showers on east coasts.

If you are talking about the warm front that will get nowhere near us which is a good thing as it shows how strong the block is.

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