Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

im off to join confused.com, this morning it was all doom and gloom, watched look north and nothing inspired me in that forecast, then come on here and from the vibes on the model thread it seems things have improved slightly for some in the uk regarding snowfall this weekend, wife is due to go to gloustershire on saturday morning, will she get there????

At this stage there really is no way of knowing. If you believe Paul Hudson and the GFS 12z the all important weekend front will push through so quickly that all some might see is some brief transitory frontal snow before it all turns to rain and milder temps than we're currently seeing. Or we can take the ECM, and to a certain extent the UKMO, which has a more stubborn block so the colder air stays in situ longer, giving what Cheese Rice has been describing above. Or we could take the 'trend' which some have picked up on which is that some of the models seem to be strengthening the block with subsequent runs, a trend which it continues might even stall the front further west, which would leave us colder but possibly without so much precipitation. So the whole breadth of solutions still available, and if you want my humble opinion I'd say we won't really know with any great level of confidence until the Friday model runs, so a good 36 hours yet.

[sparky1972]

At this stage there really is no way of knowing. If you believe Paul Hudson and the GFS 12z the all important weekend front will push through so quickly that all some might see is some brief transitory frontal snow before it all turns to rain and milder temps than we're currently seeing. Or we can take the ECM, and to a certain extent the UKMO, which has a more stubborn block so the colder air stays in situ longer, giving what Cheese Rice has been describing above. Or we could take the 'trend' which some have picked up on which is that some of the models seem to be strengthening the block with subsequent runs, a trend which it continues might even stall the front further west, which would leave us colder but possibly without so much precipitation. So the whole breadth of solutions still available, and if you want my humble opinion I'd say we won't really know with any great level of confidence until the Friday model runs, so a good 36 hours yet.

thank you for that reply, i guess we have experienced the ups and downs and the stress of model watching etc and i guess there are plenty more to come, me personally i would love a bit of snow.

[russ49]

a line of light flurry's/showers appearing on the radar stretch nearly all the way to hamburgh may just miss me in the humber area

[NorthYorksWeather]

Nice streamer setting up for lincolnshire. http://www.buienradar.nl/

Jammys sods send it up my way!

[Craigers]

Nice streamer setting up for lincolnshire. http://www.buienradar.nl/

Jammys sods send it up my way!

Its looking like southyorkshire will get some remains of those light flurries

[NW Leeds Russ]

Certainly some activity starting in the North Sea.

We need some pepping up further north and drifting in...although the flow won't be strong enough to reach here I'm sure.

BBc a few minutes ago had graphics showing N Yorks coast may be in the firing line tomorrow.

[Craigers]

Starting to pep up on the north line of the streamer. Mini humber streamer perhaps? only dreaming

[Lincs Observation]

Radar picking up showers near skeg according to rain today, can anyone confirm??

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Edited February 1, 2012 by Lincs Observation

[NorthYorksWeather]

Looking at the Netherlands radar now showers really getting going in the North Sea, some places could be in for a surprise!

[StormyLincs]

Radar picking up showers near skeg according to rain today, can anyone confirm??

yep just had a couple of light flurries here in louth, maily granular type snow.

[Harsh Climate]

Guys for the last couple of days I have been very doubtful about our chances of snow come saturday, but I am starting to see a new trend in the output that may suggest other wise .

The GFS 12z highlighted my previous thoughts perfectly, the atlantic breaking through our block from the north west and the warm front steaming it's way south east through the country with ease, with absolute no battle ground or stalling of the front.

Notice the -5 uppers clear the country, in this situation a stalling front would produce snow at around -4/-5hpa, so much higher uppers snow would be restricted to about 300m and transint too.

But look at the lastest UKMO and ECM:

ECM

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm722.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm962.gif

528 dam line staionary over the spine of england = heavy accumlating snow.

UKMO

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm722.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

Now the 528 dam line is over eastern most counties of england on saturday but with the flow becoming slacker on sunday and less atlantic influence I would expect that to extend a little west by sunday, so areas like linconshire/east anglia/kent at risk of heavy snow, unfortunatly I cant see sunday's 850's

So really this is in the balance, I would currently say east of the pennines have a chance of snow on saturday, perhaps lasting into sunday, no chance west of the pennines.

After this the future looks uncertain,

The ECM keeps us cold and dry but with the hint of maybe an azores ridge been thrown up towards greenland, I would expect at least a northerly down the line looking at the ECM:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2402.gif

The UKMO looks quite promising at 144H with the scandi-high looking to build once more, perhaps an easterly down the line???

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

And lastly the GFS, looking at the 240h chart, looks rather boring with a fat high anchored over the UK, this to me shows that the atlantic isn't expected to come streaming in and certainly has potential down the line..

Looking at the esembles though, it was clearly an outliar towards the end so not too much to worry about it not being a great run, with a fair bit of clustering trending towards cold later in the period .

Lastly a look at the upstream signals, I feel we are close to something big, maybe even a greeny high come mid-month but it's just the NAO that isn't playing ball.

The AO is superb, expected to plummet to around -4/-5 by mid-month

But on the downside the NAO remains around neutral

If we could get that down to -2/-3 coinciding with a deeply negative AO, we could have another DEC 2010 on the cards, but with probably more snow as a strengthening sun and warmer than average sea temperatures would allow for something special! ; )

As things currently stand though the telleconections are favourable for perhaps an easterly /scandi high down the line, but not a greenland high. So let's just hpe that the NAO can go negative as this is the last piece of the jigsaw!!

Edited February 1, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[NW Leeds Russ]

Great post Jed..

I have good feelings about this front stalling.

The last time I saw something like this was Feb 96 and was living on the Wirral.

Set off strong SE wind Monday afternoon and snowed for about 20 hours continuous.

Snow was about 12" deep even at sea level and 3 miles from the coast !

Edited February 1, 2012 by NW Leeds Russ

[Craigers]

The showers are developing northwards in the northsea so things will be more interesting in an hours time!

Edited February 1, 2012 by Craigers

[Lincs Observation]

Snowing in woodall Spa and Coningsby according to friends so the http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ radar is correct.

LO

[alibabba]

I'm in skeg and we have nothing yet..just lots of cloud and cold

[Harsh Climate]

Great post Jed..

I have good feelings about this front stalling.

The last time I saw something like this was Feb 96 and was living on the Wirral.

Set off strong SE wind Monday afternoon and snowed for about 20 hours continuous.

Snow was about 12" deep even at sea level and 3 miles from the coast !

:o :o

There's noting better than having heavy snow, just to look at the radar and think it's froze because screens 3pm and 9pm look exactly the same because the precipitation hasn't moved

Latest gfs looks good doesn't it, has colder uppers moving back in from the north sea saturday evening, with snow showers moving in from the east and heavy snow moving in from the west

Edited February 1, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Lincs Observation]

I'm in skeg and we have nothing yet..just lots of cloud and cold

Maybe at sea level a bit too warm still, inland might be just right hence the reports, i have snow grains here too now as i type.

LO

[NW Leeds Russ]

:o :o

There's noting better than having heavy snow, just to look at the radar and think it's froze because screens 3pm and 9pm look exactly the same because the precipitation hasn't moved

Latest gfs looks good doesn't it, has colder uppers moving back in from the north sea saturday evening, with snow showers moving in from the east and heavy snow moving in from the west

Yep getting excited now..

Off to bed as the missus is calling me sad....

[alibabba]

there is definitely lots of cloud passing over us and a keen wind blowing it over. just stood in the back garden letting the dog out I can feel the odd grain as if its trying....oh well typical Skegness micro climate hope everyone else gets a good few flurries

[Lincs Observation]

there is definitely lots of cloud passing over us and a keen wind blowing it over. just stood in the back garden letting the dog out I can feel the odd grain as if its trying....oh well typical Skegness micro climate hope everyone else gets a good few flurries

I suspect our area may see more before the nights out, it looks like Lincolnshire & N Norfolk are prime targets for a CM or two by the morning.

LO

Flurrying here now

Edited February 1, 2012 by Lincs Observation

[alibabba]

I should really be grateful that at 7 months pregnant I won't have slippy snow to contend with...but I'm such a cold lover I feel gutted when we miss out lol

[Craigers]

GFS18z

GFS12z

GFS BACK TRACKING now. Can this be the start to upgrades? bloody hope so!

[Lincs Observation]

seems like there is more action out in the North sea with our name on it, id be disappointed if i dont wake up to at least a dusting.

LO

[reef]

The radar shows some light precipitation coming this way. Nothing actually falling out of the sky yet though.

Its 2.2C with a dewpoint of -2.7C, so at least its cold enough.

EDIT: its now snowing lightly

[Zak 92]

Suprised this threads not more active tonight...

Light with the occasional moderate burst here, slight dusting