The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[Costa Del Fal]

Fog trying to form here though just a shallow mist right now. Very cold already at -2c.

Its very quiet in this thread though. It might be dry for the next few days but come on there is lots to talk about. Dont let the Midlands thread be the quietest one!

[Bolton67]

Fog trying to form here though just a shallow mist right now. Very cold already at -2c.

Its very quiet in this thread though. It might be dry for the next few days but come on there is lots to talk about. Dont let the Midlands thread be the quietest one!

I think everyone is in shock . if those charts came off, then we would be looking at daytime temps of -6 add any snowcover at night those temps would drop to over-20 add the windchill -30. thats scary for us in the UK.

[Gord]

Fog trying to form here though just a shallow mist right now. Very cold already at -2c.

Its very quiet in this thread though. It might be dry for the next few days but come on there is lots to talk about. Dont let the Midlands thread be the quietest one!

Don't worry we won't!

Anyway, if that fog can form...it'll be pictures rather than comments we'll be sharing tomorrow!

[Serendipity]

I've yet to see a snowflake this winter. It has been dreadful from that respect!

[Bolton67]

I've yet to see a snowflake this winter. It has been dreadful from that respect!

I think things are going to change.

[echobase]

Wake me up, when something happens folks..............

[A.J]

Wake me up, when something happens folks..............

Wake up you lazy sod!......something very important has just happened.......I have just entered the building!!

[conor123]

That precip over Ireland already looks to be really struggling to make any more progress East at the moment. Whilst this is not the main batch, I wouldnt be surprised if even Wales struggles to see most of the precip tomorrow now.

Unfortunately you may be right, the 18z downgrades it.

Just watch now it will stall about 20 miles west of us and were end up with a dry week :lol: easterlies rarely deliver here unless theres something to really yank the showers across like Feb 2009.

[Bolton67]

well the 18z say's yes...

yet the meto come out with this.

Very concrning if you ask me.

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2012 to Saturday 11 Feb 2012:

Mostly settled and cold leading up to the first weekend, especially towards the southeast of England, with widespread overnight frost and some wintry coastal showers towards the east. However, northwestern parts will soon become cloudier, more unsettled, but milder with spells of rain and some snow, the snow mainly on hills. Although there is considerable uncertainty, the bright, cold conditions will probably continue for a time into the second week in the east. However, the unsettled but milder conditions in the west will probably spread erratically further east with time, introducing spells of rain and some snow, again mainly on hills. This progression may be coupled with strong winds and possibly gales in northwestern parts.

Updated: 1237 on Sat 28 Jan 2012

Until the Meto change that, i'm on the fence.

Edited January 28, 2012 by lancs_northants

[PolarWarsaw]

Fax's not so good tonight, despite a superb looking 18z GFS. Until they change and the UKMO comes inline, im 50-50. I can't stand cold and dry, its like mild atlantic weather to me. Being freezing cold at all times,has to reap the rewards or its pointless. Here's hoping.

[Gord]

The precipitation just reaching the eastern Irish coast but not really moving.

Some spotty showers ahead of the front developing around the Welsh coast. Could this be a feature that might give a few localised surprises if the whole lot manages to get any further eastwards?

Edited January 28, 2012 by Gord

[Bolton67]

Fax's not so good tonight, despite a superb looking 18z GFS. .

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2012 to Saturday 11 Feb 2012:

Mostly settled and cold leading up to the first weekend, especially towards the southeast of England, with widespread overnight frost and some wintry coastal showers towards the east. However, northwestern parts will soon become cloudier, more unsettled, but milder with spells of rain and some snow, the snow mainly on hills. Although there is considerable uncertainty, the bright, cold conditions will probably continue for a time into the second week in the east. However, the unsettled but milder conditions in the west will probably spread erratically further east with time, introducing spells of rain and some snow, again mainly on hills. This progression may be coupled with strong winds and possibly gales in northwestern parts.

Updated: 1237 on Sat 28 Jan 2012

Like i said, The Meto have been great so far, for them to say the above ^^ says to me, the GFS and ECM can show what they want. the Meto are having there doubts.

I'm a coldie, but when i saw the Meto update..i realised they've seen something we have not.

[syed2878]

Morning guys. Looking at the 0z charts on the mdt and reading the comments i think the snow is gona be for the south and south east. As usial we gona misout on all the excitement.

[Gord]

Anyone seen the radar this morning? That precipitation is a lot further east than I thought it would be.

[Stour7]

According to netweather forecast I may get a dusting in the early hours of Monday, let's hope it pushes a bit further east & we get at least an inch :-)

[Gord]

Well it's already closer than we thought. Some of us were thinking yesterday that it wouldn't even reach Wales but it has done.

I'm not saying we're going to get anything because I still think it'll stall and retreat before it gets here. It's just worth keeping an eye on, that's all.

For now, grey and icy is the theme this morning.

[camperstron]

I think we are in with a chance tonight. If only it was as heavy as the precip we had on tuesday this week, THAT, would be worth a night of lampost watching!!

[andy_leics22]

It looks to be another case of 'near miss' for Leicester again today :lol: I reckon that PPN will probably scrape Birmingham on it's Eastern edge but Leicester will be too far East. It's definitely colder today than I thought it would be, GFS has a max temp of 4-5c here for around midday and I know it's only 10:30am but it's 1.0c at the moment. Can't see it getting above 3c today.

[Herefordweather]

Can't see this even reaching Hereford. Even if it does, I can't see it sticking around for long!

[jimben]

...never seen so many seagulls in the fields at the back of me....'tis a sign I tell thee..

[Strider]

Looks like it's stalled over Wales/Irish sea atm. It's turning to snow on the eastern edge.

[Gord]

A few spotty radar returns appearing around Shropshire and other parts of the West Midlands. Reckon there's nothing there though...unless anyone knows different?

[TonyH]

My stab at the coming week!

Guide to the week's weather: Sunday 29th January to Saturday 4th February (west Wales and central Midlands specific)

Headline: Cold and often frosty. Potential for snow at times, becoming very cold later

A tricky one to pin detail on this week, in fact even the next 24 hours is problematic. This is because the UK spends the coming week at or close to the boundary between bitterly cold air that will be over the Continent, and milder Atlantic air which will attempt to push in, more especially early this week, and perhaps again next weekend. An entirely cold to very cold week ahead, plenty of hard frosts from mid week, and with some snow at times in places too.

This cold versus mild air 'battle' begins tonight across Wales. Low pressure west of Ireland is attempting to push rain fronts east during Sunday night and early on Monday, however their progress would seem to be blocked by the intense wall of cold high pressure sat over Scandinavia and western Russia presently.

I anticipate that the rain falling over west Wales this morning will tend to turn to sleet and snow later on Sunday, and more especially during tonight. It's very difficult to judge which areas will be affected by this snow- with many different factors to weigh up- although low lying coastal areas are more likely to stick with rain or sleet, whereas if your inland, and especially above 100 to 200 metres then a snowy night may well occur, so that places such as Lampeter, could have a decent covering come Monday morning. A dry, frosty night for the central Midlands, as the fronts are not expected to reach Warwickshire, bar the odd flurry later in the night.

A cold, raw and cloudy day on Monday, the precipitation dying out during the morning, although still some rain, sleet or snow at times further down into SW Wales. Maximum temperatures just 1- 3c. Another attempt at a milder push may happen during Tuesday, with the threat of more sleet or snow into west Wales perhaps, and another cold, cloudy and raw day, but perhaps brighter for the Midlands.

Wednesday onwards, very cold easterly winds infiltrate England and Wales, courtesy of the high ridging in from Scandinavia. Even colder to end the week, but mostly dry with sunny periods, just the chance of a light snow flurry reaching the Midlands. Severe overnight frosts. By Friday temperatures should remain below zero day and night, from as low -10c over west Wales only reaching -2c in the afternoon. One caveat, is that the UK Met Office model shows less cold air into Wales on Friday, such is the range of possibilities at that stage.

Next weekend is almost impossible to predict this far out in this set up. but the very cold air may well hang on, with more in the way of snow showers by then, and perhaps another 'battleground' scenario and heavy snow into Wales! Spare a thought for the Alps next weekend, for where GFS is predicting -40c!!

Supportive model charts in the Welsh thread: http://forum.netweat...43#entry2228643

Edited January 29, 2012 by TonyH

[Barbmac]

In West Malvern we've got no precipitation of any kind as yet. Very murky-looking out to the west. Temperature rising slowly, now at 2.8^oC. Basically got to sit and wait and see if that area of precipitation will reach this far.

[stewfox]

Could potentially have a very cold and very snowy birthday - two important things there: the snow and my birthday.

Just reminded myself of 2007. Remember my exicitement building to silly levels prior to the snow event on the 8th and 9th. The thaw was a little too fast for my liking, but I'd take that event again anyday if only for the chaos and gridlock that resulted in Birmingham.

My birthday is 9th Feb often had snow on that day

What day has given the most snow I wonder over the last 100 yrs 9th Feb must be a contender

Edited January 29, 2012 by stewfox