South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[Nick L]

Ooh ok . Shame. Still I have learnt something else tonight.

If it looks very speckly and has been pretty much stationary for at least an hour or two then it is almost certainly anaprop. Still, it's pretty chilly out there. Also looking at the FAX chart for Tuesday, a decaying occluded front is draped across the country, might be a point of interest to keep an eye on...

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVK89.png

[RssEarthAlerts]

Doesnt look like we will get anything here in bournemouthhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/bournemouth_forecast_temp.html

[Gleno-South Coast]

At the moment the precipitation thats on its way in from the west for sun/mon looks like it will stall and get as far east as western wales the far south west and just generally the western most parts of the uk,and we have the GFS and ECM on board for the very cold stuff further in the wk,peeps in model threads are eagerly waiting to see if the UKMO jumps on board,if it does then we could be heading for the freezer.Somebody mentioned on model thread possible -21 uppers for the south coast.

[Nick L]

Doesnt look like we will get anything here in bournemouthhttp://www.metoffice...ecast_temp.html

Take no notice of those forecasts for more than 48 hours ahead is my advice.

[kent]

Hi all. my first post this winter. Seeing as tonights ECM was the coldest ive seen in many years, Its tempted me back into the mad house thats the Netweather forum. Looks like the cold is definitely coming but as always the devil is in the detail and Im gonna wait another 24 until I put my input onto the chopping block. Hi to Old Met Man and Bad Boy if youre lurking be nice to get your input too on this now enlarged southern thread. After all you dont get more central southern than us coasties lol.

[Nick L]

18z keeps the ramp-a-thon going! Thames streamer anyone?

[RssEarthAlerts]

This isnt going to go as far east as once thought, this will be mostly confined to the west.

[saintkip]

. Weren't you in the same position 2 to 3 years ago...... Anyway grow a pair... This is weather chat

Indeed it is weather chat but going over our overdraft is slightly different to cheating £37 million from the tax man, not paying charities and local business including local scouts group, 3 rd time you've been in this situation and haven't learnt a thing. Anyway now thats off my chest hope it snows xx

[snowysouth]

Hey there, thought I would join in too. It's nice to have so many people from B'mouth and Poole joining in! It's going to be quite a week how ever it turns out!!

[Polar Bear]

Very mIsty morning here in Newbury and BBC news weather indicating snow to be confined to the tips of the west today and south central warming up a little. Over night looks more interesting and nick l what are the chances then for that Thames Streamer? I really do fancy one of those.

[Polar Bear]

Just watching BBC news and they are reveiwing the papers. One heading " big freeze alert ahead for old folk" ...., for goodness sake old folk? Sorry mods a little of topic but as ever this is likely to create all sorts of headlines. I wish though freezes weren't described as big.

[Kiwi]

18z keeps the ramp-a-thon going! Thames streamer anyone?

http://modeles.meteo...18-0-144.png?18

I always wonder how useful a Thames streamer can be to those on the periphery of the Thames valley? From an imby perspective can it deliver for those in north hampshire?

FI, but this channel low would be nice

Edited January 29, 2012 by Kiwi

[snowflakey]

I always wonder how useful a Thames streamer can be to those on the periphery of the Thames valley? From an imby perspective can it deliver for those in north hampshire?

FI, but this channel low would be nice

Very borderline snow event I would have thought, very critcal on the path of the Low preasure. a lot of milder maritime air being sucked into the mix. Probably north of the M4 coridor should get a hammering from that set up.

[steve1971]

The forcast for my location has changed againe from 53% chance of snow to 30%.the local forcast saying rain for monday then dry cold after that.some hard frost over the next few nights to.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well as I type this the GFS 06z is rolling out and in its very early stages its a case of as we were. I don't think a thames streamer would be of much use for many in here at all to be honest as we would need stronger wind fetch from the EAST. Also, please be careful in wanting the frontal band out WEST (currently turning to sleet in wales) to move too far EAST. Its a close call as to what is useful for us and that which would be a non-event.

I'll post more anaylsis later as no doubt, will Nick L and one or two others.

Again, be careful what you wish for but if you have folk in wales, tell them to get prepared for a lot of SNOW.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

The forcast for my location has changed againe from 53% chance of snow to 30%.the local forcast saying rain for monday then dry cold after that.some hard frost over the next few nights to.

Come on Steve, please ignore this silly predictions as they are of not much use in reality. Stick with the more professional on the media and from within these forums. Anything is possible!

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Another very decent GFS 06z run which went a little awol in about 10 days time. However, in the shorter-term and therefore within the realiable, check out this Fax Chart and then, as a consequence of this, the flow then shifts everything westward at T+60.

Forget, the current precipitation out WEST and look EAST, come tomorrow into Tuesday is what I would advise.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just bumping this up. Looks like no one else has ever been there either.

I live ere'! There are better places for getting snow tbh!! But it can be pretty damn good if you want a nice hot holiday at times ...

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Okay so can anyone tell me if iow has any chance of snow this wk plz? I've been reading th model discussions n it sounds positive for cold n maybe some snow but not sure if us on th south coast will miss out

Cheers :-/

[Dorsetbred]

Countryfile forecast shows a mix of rain & snow tonight as the milder air moves into the area. Shows it stretching as far a Brighton so opportunity for some precip on the downs tonight before the easterly push takes over and moves it away westwards.

So folks with hills you may see something wintery tonight, for us coasties I feel this will be rain.

Not that it matters to me I'll be in Edinburgh, away from it all.

Edited January 29, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Nick L]

Countryfile forecast shows a mix of rain & snow tonight as the milder air moves into the area. Shows it stretching as far a Brighton so opportunity for some precip on the downs tonight before the easterly push takes over and moves it away westwards.

So folks with hills you may see something wintery tonight, for us coasties I feel this will be rain.

Not that it matters to me I'll be in Edinburgh, away from it all.

Yes could definitely see a few wintry flurries tonight somewhere in our region, won't be anything too exciting though.

[Dorsetbred]

Yes could definitely see a few wintry flurries tonight somewhere in our region, won't be anything too exciting though.

Agreed, nowt to really keep me from the Central belt

[Polar Bear]

Had a squizz at the radar and it certainly looked as though all of Wales was having some fun. Checked the Wales discussion forum and it seems that is very heavy rain, some sleet and I think only a couple of areas seeing the start of flurries just now. Temps seem to be dropping though; and the same i feel for here. I am convinced that between 10am and 1pm the temps dropped. need to get onto GTLTW station to see if I am right.

But back to the snow - looking at that radar though GTLTW was right for those to take heed of warnings.

[Mark Neal.]

I see the met office have put out a warning for Oxfordshire,Berkshire & Hampshire. i think this is over the top if i'm perfectly honest!

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Back to now.. and the temperature here is 3.5c, DewPoint is 1.7c. Easterly wind. 3mph

Been foggy for much of the day, just a glimmer of brightness & blue sky poking through now.

Edited January 29, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal

[SunnySouthCoast]

I can't see any of the "Day After Tomorrow" model runs coming off. But it does look cold.

For how long the cold lasts, how cold exactly it's going to be & if we will see any snow at all in this region are questions that cannot be answered at the moment.

My own personal take is that the cold will last around a week or so & inland areas of southern England could see temperatures as low as -8C/-10C, with the coastal strip no lower than -4C/-5C. And snow more than likely just flurries, unless we get a decent channel low.