South Central England Regional Discussion Thread

[john w]

Much as we love to bin the 18z, it always bothers me. Its like the morning after a night on the jaeger, you wake up and feel fine, akin to expecting snow by two pm, but by 2 pm, the snow doesnt arrive, then your massively hung over (jaeger says hello) and you remember...ah the 18z that joined me on that drunken trip...thats reared its ugly head too.

These warm incursions always get me nervous.

Win the pub quiz nick. Three Tuns on the corner of the showcase roundabout? How I love that car park...stuff of nightmares.

[Polar Bear]

good evening all and I hope you are all nice and sung instead.

Am looking forward to sunday despite the recent models runs and have listened with intent at the bbc news. looks like a fair scattering for all.

Arrived at my Brighton BnB all ok however next door in the house next door is "jam time" so looks like I am up for the duration listening to them. So thank good ness the forums are busy!

temps alot milder than though home I feel . minus 2 here and minus 3 in Newbs. and no one has any idea or care what is on its way.

PB

[Nick L]

Much as we love to bin the 18z, it always bothers me. Its like the morning after a night on the jaeger, you wake up and feel fine, akin to expecting snow by two pm, but by 2 pm, the snow doesnt arrive, then your massively hung over (jaeger says hello) and you remember...ah the 18z that joined me on that drunken trip...thats reared its ugly head too.

These warm incursions always get me nervous.

Win the pub quiz nick. Three Tuns on the corner of the showcase roundabout? How I love that car park...stuff of nightmares.

We came 3rd Ah the Three Tuns! I live literally a 5 minute walk from it. Rip off prices there...why pay well over £3 a pint when you can pay £1.80 at the union? :lol:

But yeah, the event is coming in to the high-res model range, these are the ones to watch.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Nick L

[gottolovethisweather]

I had to make a hasty exit as some drunken idiot (not me...) started singing Oasis horrendously badly at karaoke.

Annyyyyway, back the weather!

The 18z is a car crash for practically the entire country bar the far east, showing a complete snow-to-rain event. However, this is very much subject to change and time and again we have seen events like this end up much further west than expected. Millions of £s worth of computer power can't cope with events like this, it will come down to being glued to both the radar and your nearest lamp post!

Come on Nick, is that the best you can do with your beery self, as for me I'm on the Magners and Brandy again.

I want to know right now, whether it will snow on my house or just over my housing estate, how long it will last for and how much I will get, please?

Seriously though, I will await your excellent updates once yours and my own hangover have disappeared in the morning.

For now, -5.1c AT, a paltry -7.3c dewpoint here in not so Costa del Newbury,

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Neal.]

Temperature of -6c here & dewpoint at -11c.

A very chilly night out there, -10c somewhere in the region, wouldn't want to bet against it!

While the GFS 18Z was a poor run, it can't be completely ignored but surely it is being way over progressive with the front, meaning snow turning quickly to rain for all in this region. Though the NAE still looks good, see picture below at 6pm Saturday.. Surely as we get to a closer time frame we should start to have more confidence in models such as the NAE/NMM.

Regards,Mark

Edited February 2, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal

[Dean E]

It always seems to be the GFS 18z that gives us a proper slap in the face! Another encouraging sign is I've look at the BBC/MetO and other models/forecasts and if i'm right, it seems none of them have taken the 18z into account at all. This is starting to become an increasing trend across the pond in Americas too.

The ones to watch in the current cold outbreak is the GEM, ECM and NAE. Trust me, they have been a lot closer in recent months!

SM

[Polar Bear]

Certainly seems crazily progressive in piling the Atlantic through. I'll reserve judgment until the morning runs (sounds slightly dodgy that) make an appearance.

Im see though Nick you have been to the Union. Quick question how comes you can still write decent and legible posts.

I have had a couple and can you tell?

Anyway I see METO has the warning outs as yellow and the level 3 warnings too. All decribed in detail at the BBC 10 o clock news,

[Nick L]

Come on Nick, is that the best you can do with your beery self, as for me I'm on the Magners and Brandy again.

I want to know right now, whether it will snow on my house or just over my housing estate, how long it will last for and how much I will get, please?

Seriously though, I will await your excellent updates once yours and my own hangover have disappeared in the morning.

For now, -5.1c AT, a paltry -7.3c dewpoint here in not so Costa del Newbury,

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

I've got 3 hours of lectures starting at 9am tomorrow, fun fun fun! :lol:

Only -3.4c here at the moment...

But I will say one thing. Many atime while living in the Midlands we've seen events similar to this, with a front hitting the cold block to our east. It was ALWAYS forecasted to give the Midlands an epic spell of snow. However, much to my regular trauma while watching the radar, it hit the Welsh border and just stayed there. Wherever the models put this front, budge it a good 50 miles west or so. Instinct > Computers in these situations. Hence why I do not envy the Met Office boffins.

Im see though Nick you have been to the Union. Quick question how comes you can still write decent and legible posts.

I have had a couple and can you tell?

Anyway I see METO has the warning outs as yellow and the level 3 warnings too. All decribed in detail at the BBC 10 o clock news,

I've had about 6 pints...I take extra care whilst typing after I've had a few so I don't look too much of a prat :lol:

[john w]

Just to think this time tomorrow the NAE will be done for the event (i.e. it will be in our timescale) and we will probably sing the 18z's praises. I dont want to go on amounts, not yet, the METo can do that!

My only concern, mixing out, but I think it really unlikely.

AS for the 3 tuns, went a couple of times in hols from uni (one of my mates from Pompey lived literally 2 mins from the place), 3rd is good though for a uni quiz, I dont ever remember reaching such dizzy heights...mainly as my head was too dizzy!

I wonder how potent this front will be, guessing if it was a rain event brushing through this would give 10-15mm. So 10-15cm of snow assuming a perfect metric conversion...but im thinking sticky dendronite snow may be less likely if it falls through much colder air...so will go with 7-10cm.

Also, as a far away interest that pesky low over italy whipping up warmer air in to the mother of the cold over greece, hungary bulgaria bust be giving an absolute pasting to those areas...add some mountain effects too and you can see why powderheads will be wanting bulgaria right now...

[gottolovethisweather]

*Please note this is NOT the new netweather student or non-student alcohol consumption thread*

Now, to the weather. Over to you Laura, oh yes please. :wub: at age forty I should know better!

Anyhow, I digress, from now on, this thread will remain on topic once Nick L and myself have shut up for the night.

How about a Fax Chart?

Snowy Wishes

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Bear]

GTLTW

6 pints? and you still are writing amazingly and being vigilant.

Oh flipping heck next door have now bought a party back... what to do? there is no way I can sleep through that? How can I send them out to the cold to shut them up?

Amazed by the temps at home tonight and I think it is still balmy temps down here. Cant wait to get home tomorrow night after work and then enjoy a weekend of now casting. Have to admit to it was lovely seeing the BBC weather news tonight and the graphics of a band of snow sweeping the country.

PB

[Nick L]

*Please note this is NOT the new netweather student and non-student alcohol consumption thread*

Now, to the weather. Over to you Laura, yes please. :wub: at age forty I should know better!

Anyhow, I digress, from now on, this thread will remain on topic once Nick L and myself have shut up for the night.

Snowy Wishes

gottolovethisweather

Oi! Most of my last post was weather related! I think it's time for a new thread anyway, this one's getting on the large side. Closing this one shortly

New one here folks...

http://forum.netweat...cussion-thread/

Gottolovethisweather states: So will you be if you keep drinking all that beer.

Edited February 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather