London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread.

[Bolton67]

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVI89.png

mondays upated fax chart has everything further west

keeping the warm front over the very far south east

nice one rob

Dont you mean over the south west?

[john pike]

Dont you mean over the south west?

:rofl:

just testing

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

very cold ensembles and precipitation looks higher as well

very nice

[snowbob]

I thought that was gonna be the case mate

But wasn't sure that's why I asked you earlier mate

Looking great jp

[john pike]

the ecm is on board as well

be back with the updated 120 fax

[Jayces]

Soo if the models verify we should start seeing snow from midweek?

[willinkent]

moderate rain 4c dew 3c...... been raining since about 3pm...... damp n cold out there..... hopefully any 'non radar' precip like this will fall as snow next week.......

[john pike]

Soo if the models verify we should start seeing snow from midweek?

hi jaycee

it will certainly be cold enough wednesday

now we have to look for the snow

[yamkin]

the ecm is on board as well

be back with the updated 120 fax

ECM appears to have asked GFS, UKMO & FAX for a helping hand :o

[Essexgooner]

Looking good at the moment still

[Guest archiesmummy]

Essex weather saying bit of a wobble with something and is now all off? Not looked into it, what's happened?

[dubmuffin]

Apparently, by this time next week no one will be able to leave their houses for fear of freezing instantly in the -17 wind chill

[Kentish Kiwi]

Essex weather saying bit of a wobble with something and is now all off? Not looked into it, what's happened?

Not entirely sure what you are asking there... But the cold spell is most definitely still on, a way to go yet but with two of the major models in relative agreement at +120h things are looking about as good as you could hope. The only fly in the ointment is that easterlies from Russian/Scandinavian highs retrogressing westwards are notoriously difficult to model and there are many obstacles that could completely derail the cold on it's journey towards the UK.

Still far from 'in the bag' but certainly a positive outlook at this time.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Apparently, by this time next week no one will be able to leave their houses for fear of freezing instantly in the -17 wind chill

If the ECM was to verify exactly (obviously this is unlikely) then things the cold will be extreme and certainly a major health-risk to the elderly etc. A long way to go till that point though and things aren't even certain past +72h yet.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Not entirely sure what you are asking there... But the cold spell is most definitely still on, a way to go yet but with two of the major models in relative agreement at +120h things are looking about as good as you could hope. The only fly in the ointment is that easterlies from Russian/Scandinavian highs retrogressing westwards are notoriously difficult to model and there are many obstacles that could completely derail the cold on it's journey towards the UK.

Still far from 'in the bag' but certainly a positive outlook at this time.

Only that they just put on Twitter that the forecast has all changed and models not going for cold anymore, I know they are very MO based, I haven't had time to look into it more com everyone on here still positive so just wondered if one or several charts had changed tack..will keep watching..thanks for replying

[john pike]

dont worry archiesmummy

all is still on

someone must think it is april 1st

[Buzzit]

I have a sneaking suspicion that I will be claiming a refund on my train ticket to Morpeth on February 6th Yes its a long time away... but I think the SE and most of the East Coast will be hammered by then

[Guest archiesmummy]

dont worry archiesmummy

all is still on

someone must think it is april 1st

Thanks John!

[john pike]

the ecm ensembles are very cold

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Edited January 28, 2012 by john pike

[Jayces]

Only that they just put on Twitter that the forecast has all changed and models not going for cold anymore, I know they are very MO based, I haven't had time to look into it more com everyone on here still positive so just wondered if one or several charts had changed tack..will keep watching..thanks for replying

Who put what on twitter?

Folks have to remember that the models are just that models, nothing is set in stone and it's al about trends.

The current trend is for it to colder and snowier as next week progresses but as others have pointed out the foot of snow and feel like temperatures of -15 for next weekend are just to far away in weather terms for anyone to say what will happen.

From experience FI I think as far as cold and snow goes for general areas is 24 - 48 hours (ie the SE for us) and with regards to if it's going to snow in your exact location it will always be a case of radar / lampost watching at the time it's forecast.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Who put what on twitter?

Folks have to remember that the models are just that models, nothing is set in stone and it's al about trends.

The current trend is for it to colder and snowier as next week progresses but as others have pointed out the foot of snow and feel like temperatures of -15 for next weekend are just to far away in weather terms for anyone to say what will happen.

From experience FI I think as far as cold and snow goes for general areas is 24 - 48 hours (ie the SE for us) and with regards to if it's going to snow in your exact location it will always be a case of radar / lampost watching at the time it's forecast.

Essex weather put on Twitter that the forecast according to the MO had changed I don't expect imby info, just don't want that horrible dreary mildmess, yes mess back!

[john pike]

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

run through these

the uk met office charts are not the fax charts

people muddle them up all the time

even the met office went against them a couple

of days ago saying they were wrong

watch the fax chart later go totally against it

[SMU]

Everyone excited yet- I will be joining this area from Sunday night onwards...

regards

Steve

fingers Crossed!!!!

[Jayces]

I've just read their tweets and I think they are a bit misleading to be honest.

I can see the one you are talking about which is as below.

Wednesday onwards. Bit of a wobble with the models tonight and the new Met Office forecast. Could be all gone nxt weekend now :o

and

Second from last paragraph (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_alltext.html) - Something has changed today, the perils of weather forecasting

and lastly

There are reasons why the MO have gone for the milder option next weekend as several more reliable models go that way

Now that last tweet I think is the most misleading unless they are talking about models that the public don't have access too?

The 12z's we have just had all seem to be in agreement for most of their runs up to next weekend (doesn't mean any of them are right) but I certainly wouldn't suggest the majority were offering a milder option?

Interestingly though, their website has a forecast which is the exact opposite of their tweets suggesting a much colder week coming up and continiung to get colder to next weekend so I wouldn't take any notice just yet of what they are saying.

And now that Steve has announced he will be here from Sunday it can only mean good things are coming

Edited January 28, 2012 by Jayces

[Great Plum]

Everyone excited yet- I will be joining this area from Sunday night onwards...

regards

Steve

fingers Crossed!!!!

I'm very excited Steve... Here's hoping!