Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[Cwmbran Eira]

Yes a little low is shown and with lower pressure the precipitation should be heavier, I was supposed to go to Cardiff Monday morning!

Still some variety with models this morning with Ecm bringing the Atlantic proper next weekend but GFS keeps it at bay until deep FI.

Which ones looks more plausible TonyH?

[Wales123098]

Is it showing snow for SE Wales too?

[andymusic]

Which ones looks more plausible TonyH?

wouldn't worry about further into next week just yet - just enjoy Wales' good fortune for snow Sunday and Monday

Is it showing snow for SE Wales too?

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[andymusic]

Latest NAE 06z chart for sunday night

Edited January 28, 2012 by andymusic

[Cwmbran Eira]

wouldn't worry about further into next week just yet - just enjoy Wales' good fortune for snow Sunday and Monday

Good advice. I was getting a bit greedy!

[keithlucky]

Tomorrow teatime,.could be later as the cold air to the east slow the westwards progress of the front.

[Snowmadsam]

Just need it to stick now.....if i get rain first i am concerned it wont stick....

Tomorrow teatime,.could be later as the cold air to the east slow the westwards progress of the front.

That would be better allows more cold air into wales

[Cwmbran Eira]

Just need it to stick now.....if i get rain first i am concerned it wont stick....

That would be better allows more cold air into wales

As long as it's cold enough & heavy enough you'll have nothing to worry about

[mikeocarroll]

LOL loving the excitement in here this morning - Keith beat me to posting the FAX chart which is my favourite this morning, the FAX charts are showing a) quicker progression of the cold air west than previously combined with B) reduced heights to our SW which = c) lots of snow for all of us!

There could be snow for 48 hours straight starting tomorrow morning:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVG89.png

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVI89.png

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVJ89.png

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVK89.png

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVL89.png

I would add the caveat that, with small changes and dependent on individual locations in Wales, 48 hours of snow isn't guaranteed and could be either 48 hours of rain or 48 hours of dryness, but snow is looking increasingly likely now for all areas, although may start as rain in the west and may dry out later in the east.

Later on next week there should be some very cold temps and ice days. Whether we get deep, sustained cold beyond next week is about 50/50 at the moment with the ECM and a couple of the smaller models showing an atlantic victory late next week (more snow on leading edge first though?), while the GFS puts us into the freezer, locks the door and throws away the key. Shame it's the GFS. UKMO alright too though.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'm not expecting anything here, I can see it snowing only over high ground.

[Snowmadsam]

As long as it's cold enough & heavy enough you'll have nothing to worry about

[Cwmbran Eira]

Thanks mikeocarroll

excellent update.

[andymusic]

Wales' SNOW is already clearly showing on the meto radar - edging nicely into Ireland - seems to be about on time or possibly even a little ahead of schedule - fighting against the cold high pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

[Buzz]

Tomorrow teatime,.could be later as the cold air to the east slow the westwards progress of the front.

I think that you mean the Eastwards progression.

Thr cold is coming from the east, the front from the west then stalling as it moves east.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Will it snow in cardiff?

[Cwmbran Eira]

Will it snow in cardiff?

Yes.

you'll be unlucky not to see anything over the next 3 days

Edited January 28, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[keithlucky]

I think that you mean the Eastwards progression.

Thr cold is coming from the east, the front from the west then stalling as it moves east.

Getting carried away lol.

[Buzz]

No worries - look at me, I can't even type (thr = the).

[andymusic]

[benb]

Wales' SNOW is already clearly showing on the meto radar - edging nicely into Ireland - seems to be about on time or possibly even a little ahead of schedule - fighting against the cold high pressure

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

Nice!

Should be a good test of the block- if the precipitation arrives quicker than anticipated the block may be a little weaker than thought, if it struggles to get here, it'll be a sign of the block's strength.

Latest NAE has first precipitation reaching west coast between 3am and 6am-

Is it correct to say that the precipitation sliding down from the NW in a SEerly direction is good for us, as it'll pull the colder air in more quickly behind it, thus accelerating the change from rain to snow and also giving snowfall to a wider area?

Also it won't erode the cold air to the E, as a direct approach of the front from the west might have done?

I'll be amazed and delighted if I see snow in my location!

Upland Carmarthenshire and the Western Brecons are looking especially snowy from Sunday onwards, atm, imo.

[Cwmbran Eira]

Latest BBC forecast shows the precip hitting west coast at 5am Sunday.It makes very slow progress east. Turning to snow Sunday evening. Comment of "we are keeping a very close eye on this" sounds very encouraging

Edited January 28, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[alijoe]

GFS -00z latest update for Wales -

WALES becomes the new LAPLAND

by Monday night Wales will be blanketed with snow - and the rest of next week we can sell tickets for sleigh rides and ski runs cause:-

it will be down to -15 during the night over the snow fields (crikey) - :smilz38:

and just make it back up to -5 during the day - :smilz38:

has anybody got a reindeer - might be good for business! :smilz38:

Lovely red sky this morning

Red sky in the morning - shepherds WARNING!

Mountain forecast from the meto for Sunday

Weather

Cloudy throughout the day with outbreaks of rain sleet and snow. Snow is likely at most levels, heavy on summits especially later on in the day. Considerable amounts of snow are likely at mid and high levels with blizzards likely giving very poor visibility and deep drifts in places.

Visibility

Very poor all day in both snow and hill fog.

Hill fog

Blanket hill fog all day down to low levels.

Maximum winds above 400m

Southeast 30 mph.

Temperature

Valleys Plus 1 Celsius 800 m Minus 2 Celsius. Freezing level 200 m.

Lol, I think after reading this that Winter has finally arrived. The Man from Ponty, He say YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[Snowmadsam]

Latest BBC forecast shows the precip hitting west coast at 5am Sunday.It makes very slow progress east. Turning to snow Sunday evening. Comment of "we are keeping a very close eye on this" sounds very encouraging

Beeb showed nothing over me.....typical....i think they will get this very wrong..,with snow everywhere....

[andymusic]

GFS 06z today is being very generous - 18 hours potentially of snow for South/Mid Wales Sunday and Monday - and now with a slight twist more snow progged for Thursday also

If the GFS 00z comes off for towards the end of the week we will be looking at a couple of feet of snow all over Wales - we will just grind to a halt folks - fill up the larders - this could get very nasty!

Edited January 28, 2012 by andymusic

[nwales]

Latest GFS shows the snow hanging around into the week! Too exciting now, need to be patient, get off the laptop and go get food, coal and beer!

Min last night: -0.8c

Current: 0.3c

Yep, beyond exiting.. The charts at the moment show continuous snowfall for this location from Wednesday evening until at least Sunday morning. Ha!

Edited January 28, 2012 by nwales