Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[Snowmadsam]

it's gonna be an interesting day Sunday/Monday..

[andymusic]

Well guys and gals - just been to stock the larder up - 2 weeks plus of shopping - like flippin xmas again - can't take any chances round here mind - if Sunday proves to be problematic into Monday - then I'm ready for it. GFS 12z going for deep freeze temps - up to -10 overnight and some days only reaching -3 - that's almost as bad as our last deep freeze period December 2010. Looks like GFS wants to keep this going through a good part of February too. So I think I'm ready for it now - snow and cold - do your worst - hope everyone else is prepared!

Sunday lunchtime NAE

Edited January 27, 2012 by andymusic

[J10]

I have just uploaded mt Alps blog, and the synoptic extract has also been downloaded vie the attached link.

Synoptic Extract - (Model Discussion thread) -

Full Alps Blog -

[alijoe]

I have to confess,,,, I am a little EXCITED but shhhh don't tell anyone.

[Icequeen]

Me too....... Silently optimistic quietly reading all the posts :) :)

[ourson]

Well guys and gals - just been to stock the larder up - 2 weeks plus of shopping - like flippin xmas again - can't take any chances round here mind - if Sunday proves to be problematic into Monday - then I'm ready for it. GFS 12z going for deep freeze temps - up to -10 overnight and some days only reaching -3 - that's almost as bad as our last deep freeze period December 2010. Looks like GFS wants to keep this going through a good part of February too. So I think I'm ready for it now - snow and cold - do your worst - hope everyone else is prepared!

Yep. Just had a punch up with an old lady in Tesco Metro over the last loaf of bread.

Not really - it was milk. LOL

METO not really going for it in a big way atm. Yes weather warnings, but the weather charts look a bit tame. Also temps not as cold as I would like to see for my back yard. 4C max during the day is ok, but not dipping too much in the night. More websites to stalk over the weekend for me, and have been feeding the lampost in anticipation of sunday night-monday morning.

[DeepSnow]

Well guys and gals - just been to stock the larder up - 2 weeks plus of shopping - like flippin xmas again - can't take any chances round here mind - if Sunday proves to be problematic into Monday - then I'm ready for it. GFS 12z going for deep freeze temps - up to -10 overnight and some days only reaching -3 - that's almost as bad as our last deep freeze period December 2010. Looks like GFS wants to keep this going through a good part of February too. So I think I'm ready for it now - snow and cold - do your worst - hope everyone else is prepared!

Sunday lunchtime NAE

Would this not be a mostly high ground event?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yep high ground again....

[Snowmadsam]

Well guys and gals - just been to stock the larder up - 2 weeks plus of shopping - like flippin xmas again - can't take any chances round here mind - if Sunday proves to be problematic into Monday - then I'm ready for it. GFS 12z going for deep freeze temps - up to -10 overnight and some days only reaching -3 - that's almost as bad as our last deep freeze period December 2010. Looks like GFS wants to keep this going through a good part of February too. So I think I'm ready for it now - snow and cold - do your worst - hope everyone else is prepared!

Sunday lunchtime NAE

nothing for me.....I think this will be wrong....

[andymusic]

Would this not be a mostly high ground event?

That's only the start of it - NAE will give us more info into the 18.00 slot for sunday afternoon tonight - as it only goes out that far now - but you can see the start of the rain turning to snow - predictions are that the cold air will undercut the front and turn more and more of the rain to snow - so what might start off to be just cold rain should (for most levels) turn to sleet/snow - all will depend on how far that front gets East and then stalls and then re-treats back west - the cold air should do the rest!

Edited January 27, 2012 by andymusic

[ourson]

nothing for me.....I think this will be wrong....

DONT PANIC!!

NAE for Sunday lunchtime??

The main event is coming later - overnight sunday/monday I beleive.

[ourson]

Have a go at this (picked it up from the nutter model thread):

http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Select ECM (drop down on the right hand panel), and choose the snow chart. Shows some top class snow over a fair bit of Wales and SW England coming up by the end of the weekend.

BRING IT ON!!

[keithlucky]

That's only the start of it - NAE will give us more info into the 18.00 slot for sunday afternoon tonight - as it only goes out that far now - but you can see the start of the rain turning to snow - predictions are that the cold air will undercut the front and turn more and more of the rain to snow - so what might start off to be just cold rain should (for most levels) turn to sleet/snow - all will depend on how far that front gets East and then stalls and then re-treats back west - the cold air should do the rest!

I agree Andy even if it does start as rain once the cold air digs in Sunday night the rain will readily turn back to snow even in Pembroke.

[andymusic]

Have a go at this (picked it up from the nutter model thread):

http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Select ECM (drop down on the right hand panel), and choose the snow chart. Shows some top class snow over a fair bit of Wales and SW England coming up by the end of the weekend.

BRING IT ON!!

Nice find that Ourson - looks like we could be right in the firing line for a day or so of snow if that is right - Meto are fairly convinced with there yellow warnings too!

[Cymro]

People are concentrating too much on the colour of the map and where the pink pixel is as to say rather than their local climate and how thi swill certainly ffactor un, Fail to see how anywhere east of let's say Cross Hands will struggle to see snow away from the southern sea board, with a fair amount above some 100m yes it will likely change and details do, but lets not get fixated on the colours of the map.

[ourson]

Nice find that Ourson - looks like we could be right in the firing line for a day or so of snow if that is right - Meto are fairly convinced with there yellow warnings too!

Yellow warnings, but the weather forecast shows a pitifull amount of snow at the moment. Upgrade tomorrow I hope.

[andymusic]

Yellow warnings, but the weather forecast shows a pitifull amount of snow at the moment. Upgrade tomorrow I hope.

For Wales for Sunday night into Monday

Yellow alert

Rain edging in from the west could turn to snow on the leading edge, with the potential for accumulations of several cm, especially on hills. The public are advised to be aware of the potential for disruption to traffic. At this stage there is considerable uncertainty so please check for further updates.

[J10]

At the moment the trend seems to be suggesting that the front is really going to struggle to get that far. Each AX charts shows the front further west.

Pros - more likely the precipitation will be snow

Cons - It may not get that far east, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the front will each reach Wales.

[andymusic]

At the moment the trend seems to be suggesting that the front is really going to struggle to get that far. Each AX charts shows the front further west.

Pros - more likely the precipitation will be snow

Cons - It may not get that far east, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the front will each reach Wales.

We are now slowly entering the land of nowcasting Jackone - Radars at the ready for Sunday and Monday to see what actually will happen!

[Bonjangle]

Saturday Night

An area of rain lingers across Northern Ireland this evening and turns heavier in the night. Clear and cold this evening across most of Britain. This leads to a dry, clear and cold night with a widespread, sharp frost across Britain. Expect lows of 0 to -5C but +5C for Northern Ireland.

Sunday

Cold and frosty again this morning but dry and sunny though more cloudy in the west as an area of rain, preceded by some snow spreads into the south west England and Wales. In the afternoon there is a risk of snow showers across north east England and eastern Scotland and some may be heavy and generally more cloud across England this afternoon. Snow showers retreat back to North Sea coasts for this evening and tonight with little change in the west. A hard, frost to come tonight in central and eastern areas. Highs today of 4 to 6C.

[J10]

We are now slowly entering the land of nowcasting Jackone - Radars at the ready for Sunday and Monday to see what actually will happen!

At T+0, it is easier to forecast.

[Snowmadsam]

At T+0, it is easier to forecast.

Lets hope 12z comes off...hehe

[andymusic]

Quoted from AQUASTARMIST

Cold and frosty again this morning but dry and sunny though more cloudy in the west as an area of rain,

preceded by some snow spreads into the south west England and Wales. (more chance of snow in Wales with our lovely mountains)

In the afternoon there is a risk of snow showers across north east England and eastern Scotland and some may be heavy and generally more cloud across England this afternoon. Snow showers retreat back to North Sea coasts for this evening and tonight

with little change in the west. (more snow than rain by now overnight - Welsh mountains don't half help)

A hard, frost to come tonight in central and eastern areas. Highs today of 4 to 6C.

Edited January 27, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Good point Jackone the met seem to show the front stalling just west of Wales yet the latest fax shows the front stalled over central Wales.

[Snowmadsam]

Good point Jackone the met seem to show the front stalling just west of Wales yet the latest fax shows the front stalled over central Wales.

Great now we need it to be in the right location or for it to move slower to allow colder air in Wales