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Southern England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

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Oops, didn't mean 1800!

There isn;t a SE thread yet.

BBC and Met aren't forecasting snow for my area and only the chart seems to be showing it, so I am little skeptical.

The BBC are not going much further than tomorrow lol. The main concern at the moment is the weather front heading into the South West during Sunday , once this threat has been and gone we can start looking at after. But with 850's falling below -10 on most outputs it will only be a matter of time before you will get Snow into Kent , weather convective , frontal or the North Sea Snow machine. The models will never pin down ppn to a certain place until +12 hours . Look at the bigger picture and think of previous events where a Strong Easterly has prevailed and you will get images of BBC News showing all the roads blocked in Kent lol.

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Yup! Was like a spring day down on the canal at Hythe today! Was outside working in just a t-shirt in the bright sun! Beautiful! Not much sense of the cold to come!

L

Got up to 7.7c up near East Cliff in Folkestone - now 4.1c

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Meteociel keeps crashing and when you do get on it's crawling .... As it's a french website I am amazed at the amount of users that must be on there ... Although France is not gonna escape this beast so they must be getting excited to ... might try translating some of the french weather forums later just for fun loll .

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Flag for se here.

Ok so I (ramping type person) don't feel confident

But question myself that I should

Basically confused

Met office gives nothing by way of real hope in this region over next 7 days

But charts people post sit snow over me.

Someone please tell me how I should feel!!!

Tripidation/suspicion/optimism?

Very patient

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I reckon we will get copious amounts of snow until 27th of Feb when the mild will return cause that's when my nwextra subscription runs out ;-)

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The BBC are not going much further than tomorrow lol. The main concern at the moment is the weather front heading into the South West during Sunday , once this threat has been and gone we can start looking at after. But with 850's falling below -10 on most outputs it will only be a matter of

time before you will get Snow into Kent , weather convective , frontal or the North Sea Snow machine. The models will never pin down ppn to a certain place until +12 hours . Look at the bigger picture and think of previous events where a Strong Easterly has prevailed and you will get images of

BBC News showing all the roads blocked in Kent lol.

After looking at the latest FAX charts, I got a feeling the majority of the SW is going to be in the middle! I think the warm front will stall across the Irish Sea, far west Wales, and this allowing a few more snow showers into the East and SE of England, with Western and Central England dry but cold!

My opinion is the front won't make it this far!

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Full regional threads should be reopened later tonight all being well.

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After looking at the latest FAX charts, I got a feeling the majority of the SW is going to be in the middle! I think the warm front will stall across the Irish Sea, far west Wales, and this allowing a few more snow showers into the East and SE of England, with Western and Central England dry but cold!

My opinion is the front won't make it this far!

Well we will have to see although the ensembles are quite impressive for ppn in somerset .

prcpSomerset.png

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In advance of thread splitting - good luck fellow counties but I want the bounty lol !

And yamkin comes with us !!!

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In advance of thread splitting - good luck fellow counties but I want the bounty lol !

And yamkin comes with us !!!

Hey Sarah good luck to you too fingers crossed we all see something wintry,oh and leave Yamkin he is ours lol :drinks:

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In advance of thread splitting - good luck fellow counties but I want the bounty lol !

And yamkin comes with us !!!

Look forward to his predictions of imminent mayhem as when a band of ferocious intermittent sleet advanced through the Cheshire Gap towards us unsuspecting folk in the SE!

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After looking at the latest FAX charts, I got a feeling the majority of the SW is going to be in the middle! I think the warm front will stall across the Irish Sea, far west Wales, and this allowing a few more snow showers into the East and SE of England, with Western and Central England dry but cold!

My opinion is the front won't make it this far!

This is my greatest fear now after we initialy wanted it to be more to the west! :rofl: I can just see it now come sunday afternoon we will be all sat around watching this ppn creeping closer just to see it stop in devon! :nea:

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An interesting article taken from an American newspaper of December 24 1978, presumably penned just before the onset one of the four coldest UK winters of the 20th Century. Even then they were muttering about warming.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=dTVVAAAAIBAJ&sjid=1z0NAAAAIBAJ&pg=6551,7545597&dq=weather+london+snow&hl=en

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This is my greatest fear now after we initialy wanted it to be more to the west! :rofl: I can just see it now come sunday afternoon we will be all sat around watching this ppn creeping closer just to see it stop in devon! :nea:

But is that a bad thing?

If the Warm Front is further West it means the cold is winning and greater chances will be in store as time goes by!

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Hi all,

I've come in from a day out and I see my post here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72340-southern-england-regional-discussion-thread-part-2/page__view__findpost__p__2224673 1 GFS run ago seems to have been trumped. :acute:

We all know we're not there yet, but will reiterate that I believe February 2012 is likely to go down in the weather record books for a whole variety of reasons. :clapping:

Lets watch it all unfold firstly in Europe and then across to our shores.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

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But is that a bad thing?

If the Warm Front is further West it means the cold is winning and greater chances will be in store as time goes by!

I can see your point but Ive seen many bone dry easterlys in west country! Even with -15 ippers over north sea if it came off the showers would pruduce nothing of any worth here.

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I can see your point but Ive seen many bone dry easterlys in west country! Even with -15 ippers over north sea if it came off the showers would pruduce nothing of any worth here.

That's why we need an active southerly jet with low pressure systems bumping up against the cold air, a channel low or a slider, it happened many times in the 80s when there was a huge high pressure to the north east and the charts at the moment have that 80s feel about them, even if this warm front later this weekend doesn't reach us, I reckon we could be in for some fun and games the longer the block stays there & pumps all that cold air our way.

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Seems like the 528 line is over the EAST then retreating into the North Sea before returning, also the Met Office is showing a trough over the SE on Sunday, will that trough produce anything? also with the 528 line moving a bit will Snow be a question or more Sleety Rain?

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Anybody who gets any snow (and some will) from the warm front (soon to be a cold front) will have to consider it a nice bonus. Don't wish it too far east though, if it were to make it to, say, the east coast/into the North Sea I would seriously fear for this cold spell.

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In advance of thread splitting - good luck fellow counties but I want the bounty lol !

And yamkin comes with us !!!

NOOOOOO Yammers is ours!

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Did get a batch of showers moving through at 3:30pm... took some snaps of cloud formations.. something i have a habit of doing.. Picture quality not great because on blackberry smartphone...

Seems the shower-band a short time ago, was heading my way and then suddenly had more of a westerly component to it, so we have missed most of it..

Currently 2.8c... Under clear skies and partly cloudy at times..

12Z model runs looked good overall didn't they.. And the GEM Was a hidden GEM!!

Regards,Mark

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post-15543-0-45176800-1327699550_thumb.j

post-15543-0-32987000-1327699551_thumb.j

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Tricky one. Latest modified NAE just arrived from Chief Forecaster at Exeter; along with last UKMO-GM run from his Medium Range colleagues. Little significant to add, other than frontal progression remains problematic element later Sunday. Easterly bounds hard to judge; latest run has it into Bristol / M5 corridor by around 19z Sunday evening. Exactly how far east it extends thereafter... tough call, but the GM has more extensive snowy signal into the likes of Wilts / Glos northwards by 12z Monday, which is supported too by mapped ECM snow progs. But certainly NOT to be taken literally. Indeed, it's worth noting that even at some stage prior to the colder continental air advecting westwards, the prospect of significant snow for western uplands (especially Wales) and quite possibly to some lower levels exists through latter stages of Sunday into Sunday evening and night, as the boundary layer cools-off in the precipitation and aided by light winds. So, the easternmost bounds of the wintry ppn remains the key f'cast uncertainty then into Monday, but the UKMO products show a very clear and sharp decline of WBFL's on this leading edge flank, suggestive of a rather knife-edge situation re when and where the rain/sleet turns to snow, and how any waves causing frontal enhancement impact the ppn rates. The progged rates look very light on the leading edge; exactly how much snow open to question, but we'll see how next runs handle it and also the high-res (UKV/P) models.

Gotta go get ready for broadcast - cheers all, Ian.

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Tricky one. Latest modified NAE just arrived from Chief Forecaster at Exeter; along with last UKMO-GM run from his Medium Range colleagues. Little significant to add, other than frontal progression remains problematic element later Sunday. Easterly bounds hard to judge; latest run has it into Bristol / M5 corridor by around 19z Sunday evening. Exactly how far east it extends thereafter... tough call, but the GM has more extensive snowy signal into the likes of Wilts / Glos northwards by 12z Monday, which is supported too by mapped ECM snow progs. But certainly NOT to be taken literally. Indeed, it's worth noting that even at some stage prior to the colder continental air advecting westwards, the prospect of significant snow for western uplands (especially Wales) and quite possibly to some lower levels exists through latter stages of Sunday into Sunday evening and night, as the boundary layer cools-off in the precipitation and aided by light winds. So, the easternmost bounds of the wintry ppn remains the key f'cast uncertainty then into Monday, but the UKMO products show a very clear and sharp decline of WBFL's on this leading edge flank, suggestive of a rather knife-edge situation re when and where the rain/sleet turns to snow, and how any waves causing frontal enhancement impact the ppn rates. The progged rates look very light on the leading edge; exactly how much snow open to question, but we'll see how next runs handle it and also the high-res (UKV/P) models.

Gotta go get ready for broadcast - cheers all, Ian.

how about somerset?

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