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lorenzo

Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

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Nothing particularly marginal in the GFS 12Z on Sunday->Monday with cold undercutting heavy frontal precipitation. I like it a lot. :)

144_24.gif

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Spooky stillness this morning gave way to a burst of ever so slightly sleety rain in the middle of the day; then temps started to rise and not much else, certainly not the sap.

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Yucky drizzle/wet rain!! still feeling quite raw.... Not a day for being outside toomuch. Luckily had a meeting this morning so only outside for a time today. :good:

Hoping when i look at the models things are looking good. Fingers and toes x

Just had a wee look in the MT and within the space of 20mins it has gone from High five's & Back Slapping tae suicide watch :help:

I shoud know better by now, than to venture into that Fekin mad hoose for any guid info :fool:

Big Innes

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Just had a wee look in the MT and within the space of 20mins it has gone from High five's & Back Slapping tae suicide watch :help:

I shoud know better by now, than to venture into that Fekin mad hoose for any guid info :fool:

Big Innes

:acute:

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Ha to Big Inne - quite agree. The MT is certainly creating a lot of Bi-Polar (manic depressive) activity in those who post! I should set up a couch and charge them for one to one therapy. Poor things; they'll all be ready for sectioning if the models carry on like this for much longer.

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Just had a wee look in the MT and within the space of 20mins it has gone from High five's & Back Slapping tae suicide watch :help:

I shoud know better by now, than to venture into that Fekin mad hoose for any guid info :fool:

Big Innes

The UKMO isn't horrendous, it isn't exactly brilliant but not really any sign of zonality there either with potential for undercutting after +144 hours. Still, I'd rather have the GFS output. Let's hope the ECM stays steady tonight and backs its 32 day outlook, which was apparently very good for cold (according to all those who have access to such crucial information).

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Just had a wee look in the MT and within the space of 20mins it has gone from High five's & Back Slapping tae suicide watch :help:

I shoud know better by now, than to venture into that Fekin mad hoose for any guid info :fool:

Big Innes

The failure of short-term memory in there is what I can't understand. Every other day it's tears and tantrums, interspersed with joy and ecstasy on the intermediate days.

You'd think folk would remember that the previous low point was followed by a high point.....and a low point....and a high point....and so on and so on. Bonkers!

Hysteria. Gotta love it.

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The ECM & GFS are identikits in 5 days time. Sunday into Monday could see contant, moderate to heavy snowfall across Scotland as cold air from the east undercuts the moist Atlantic.

Cold wins in both the GFS & ECM :)

Here's the 12Z ECM & GFS side by side at 120 hours

21d1zl.jpg

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The ECM & GFS are identikits in 5 days time. Sunday into Monday could see contant, moderate to heavy snowfall across Scotland as cold air from the east undercuts the moist Atlantic.

GFS has snow for somewhere in the UK from T+36 right out to T+300 on just about every 3 hour interval.... :lol:

Nae need for suicide watch like the MT. We just need tae chill oot.

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Ours all melted now, hope there's more on the way :)

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GFS has snow for somewhere in the UK from T+36 right out to T+300 on just about every 3 hour interval.... :lol:

Nae need for suicide watch like the MT. We just need tae chill oot.

NAE need at all

12012612_2412.gif

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NAE need at all

12012612_2412.gif

That big dark pink bit to the West is over me hope it stays and be interesting if we get anything. Only had one snowfall this winter just randomly came one night and was gone by morning.

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The ECM & GFS are identikits in 5 days time. Sunday into Monday could see contant, moderate to heavy snowfall across Scotland as cold air from the east undercuts the moist Atlantic.

Cold wins in both the GFS & ECM :)

Here's the 12Z ECM & GFS side by side at 120 hours

21d1zl.jpg

The good thing about those charts, for me, is the flow direction - pretty much due south. I know that doesn't sound particularly great but the absolute worst direction for marginality at the east coast is southeast, with southwest the best. I'd imagine for you area it'd be southwest that would hold the greatest risk of marginality and on the west coast WSW, so if it were to stay due south we wouldn't necessarily need particularly cold uppers if surface cold was embedded. The ECM's slack northerly beforehand would pretty much ensure that temperatures would struggle to reach 2C or 3C through the day, and with coastal mixing limited to the far northeast coast the potential thereafter is immense. The shortwave activity and undercutting potential has, other than on tonight's UKMO, increased, and the option of an initial fairly non descript slack southeasterly flow is a lot less likely now than it was a few days ago. The ECM does become a bit slack, with the high too far south and lacking in any real bite at times but features tend to pop up at closer range, even at 24 hours range, so I wouldn't be concerned yet. Not that you're the TOORPing types, you lovely reasonable people!

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Hello everybody!

Lying snow to very low levels on the Campsies but unfortuantly I never observed any falling snow however there were some sightings of wet snow/sleet in Bearsden and Lennoxtown. I do wonder if I do wonder if I should add this event to my Diariy of Snow events?

Just checked the models and I don't know what to make of them - suppose that's not a bad thing.

Saw a horrific sight at school today with a girl falling down on the stairs and having her bone sticking out her knee. I've seen one horror show today and I don't wish to see another with the GFS 18z!

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Saw a horrific sight at school today with a girl falling down on the stairs and having her bone sticking out her knee.

<faints>

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h850t850eu.png

Decent amount of cold air over Europe for most of the run - surely we should tap into that soon?

High Pressure over the UK - could end up anywhere!

h850t850eu.png

Note that the area of high pressure that was over the UK has moved out westwards and northwards - This COULD end up over Greenland which is already looking Green again in the south - that's a good sign.

I believe that the area of high pressure will first of all block the Atlantic lows and it's westward movement would open the door for Northerlies. If it were to end up over Greenland then we could see quite an interesting scenario.

A bit of a ramp there and I'm sure that this scenario would be very different come the 18z run. However on the other hand we may end up with a fantastic easterly earlier in the run instead - that's the kind of scenario that we've got and combined with some potential of an easterly and background signals, it's very much GAME ON!

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That HP in mid-atlantic shows on the 120 Fax chart and looks tempting, as it does on the ECM here,looking beyond the easterly will it won't it and at colder trends..

post-7292-0-54585200-1327439702_thumb.gi post-7292-0-77161600-1327439897_thumb.gi

By here it doesn't look so appealing elongated and extending NE to link with the Scandi High. ( If it is the elusive Greenland High you are waiting for..)

post-7292-0-63934200-1327439992_thumb.gi

Then at 240 things are completely poised again on ECM..slowed down from this morning when it was thinking cut off low, however over 12 hours that cold pool has developed well.

post-7292-0-92924400-1327440084_thumb.gipost-7292-0-17078000-1327440364_thumb.gi

Beyond this easterly a mid-atlantic block is on the cards..as with all thing this winter it's a slow evolution! Just don't look at 12z GFS @384, reminds me of the limpet high that killed last winter..

Edit to add the height chart from NOAA.. The reds well advanced over Greenland, from yesterday cutting off the high.

post-7292-0-53772200-1327441045_thumb.gi

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That HP in mid-atlantic shows on the 120 Fax chart and looks tempting, as it does on the ECM here,looking beyond the easterly will it won't it and at colder trends..

post-7292-0-54585200-1327439702_thumb.gi post-7292-0-77161600-1327439897_thumb.gi

By here it doesn't look so appealing elongated and extending NE to link with the Scandi High. ( If it is the elusive Greenland High you are waiting for..)

post-7292-0-63934200-1327439992_thumb.gi

Then at 240 things are completely poised again on ECM..slowed down from this morning when it was thinking cut off low, however over 12 hours that cold pool has developed well.

post-7292-0-92924400-1327440084_thumb.gipost-7292-0-17078000-1327440364_thumb.gi

Beyond this easterly a mid-atlantic block is on the cards..as with all thing this winter it's a slow evolution! Just don't look at 12z GFS @384, reminds me of the limpet high that killed last winter..

Edit to add the height chart from NOAA.. The reds well advanced over Greenland, from yesterday cutting off the high.

post-7292-0-53772200-1327441045_thumb.gi

Interesting. I think the big issue will be getting the southern arm of the jet to power up a bit more and undercut the block. I'm not sure the block is likely to sink at all but it could sit over us at times and give dry conditions at times. However, the volatility of the wave propagation and resultant warming/cooling of the stratosphere could well come in handy for us sitting further north as the block is likely to come under attack from the Atlantic. The details are very much up in the air at the moment but the potential is there for some epic frontal snowfall further down the line. Oh, not to mention the progressively stronger signal for retrogression to Greenland illustrated so clearly above. I reckon this may start to show up soon in FI as models tend to be progressive with moving onto the next signal but IF the shortwave trauma resolves favourably for us then I certainly won't be concerned about lack of snowfall potential anytime soon...

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The NOAA discussion is well written this evening, even if it has a low confidence 2/5, good to see that the mental torture of model watching is as apparent on the other side of the Atlantic. Based on that low score they revert to the verification of anomalies chosing yesterday evenings ECM Mean 12z as the best base model for their charts. The first sentence in bold is amusing almost like the guy was expressing his headache there and then before going on to continue writing. beginning to think the live model thread reviews including UKMO 12z and ECM 12z is ahead of these analysis when they present new themes.

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE

FAVORS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF

ENSEMBLES FAVOR POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE MANUAL BLEND FAVORS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE

WHICH HAS HAD A MUCH HIGHER 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATION WITH

OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS

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Cold wet and very foggy here. 4C which is steady since aboot 3pm.

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3.1 down 2 degrees in last 2 hours and misty ....models getting close I can almost smell the snow :) #pubrunspecial

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Interesting. I think the big issue will be getting the southern arm of the jet to power up a bit more and undercut the block. I'm not sure the block is likely to sink at all but it could sit over us at times and give dry conditions at times. However, the volatility of the wave propagation and resultant warming/cooling of the stratosphere could well come in handy for us sitting further north as the block is likely to come under attack from the Atlantic. The details are very much up in the air at the moment but the potential is there for some epic frontal snowfall further down the line. Oh, not to mention the progressively stronger signal for retrogression to Greenland illustrated so clearly above. I reckon this may start to show up soon in FI as models tend to be progressive with moving onto the next signal but IF the shortwave trauma resolves favourably for us then I certainly won't be concerned about lack of snowfall potential anytime soon...

If ever a run was made to illustrate a point:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120124/18/216/h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120124/18/288/h850t850eu.png

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