Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[edo]

You never know with the NMM though - (this may not be the right link but I'll get there eventually

lol i have to say your a godsend with links so i would never criticise well unless they were consistently wrong :winky: ....has actually dropped to 1.6 here with a dewpoint of 0.4 but not too much sign of any beefy showers heading this way

[Big Innes Madori]

NMM suggesting the risk of a moderate snowfall tomorrow rush hour pushing west to east across most of central Scotland. It's been there for a few runs now so something to watching. Still too mild for snow here, 3.5/1C, but given the instability of the airmass passing through a few hours clearing after this shower should see us all in with a shout of snow tomorrow morning. Possibility of something more substantial on Sunday with the UKMO, GFS doesn't have a very nice tilt for it though. After that, a continental flow of some kind is likely, most probably the garbage kind away from the east coast as advertised by HC and MWIS, but after that, who knows. Westerlies being scrubbed according to GP - let's hope they're scrubbed for the rest of winter!

Even here in the Fife Highlands LS, there has been very little Snaw tae report today :huh:

Some short heavy spells of wet snaw & sleet, but mostly dreech cald drizzle.

Snaw on the hills though!

A spell withoot Westerlies!

Ahhh Bliss

Big Innes

[edo]

Would love it if we could get some snow tomorrow and there's a dusting on the cars and grass right now. Showers out to the west don't look like making any real impact yet. The GFS 12z was a tad disapointing as it shows this battle between the atlantic and the scandi block continuing throughout the entire run but the next few runs will paint a better picture and I'm sure that whatever happens, we will see heights either over Scandi or Greenie and I'm feeling confident of an easterly at the very least.

Not had a look at the model thread yet - what are the other models showing?

I woul be quite happy for the battleground to be above my house though resulting in a huge snowfall whilst they fight it out and that could be sunday/monday

[edo]

lol i have to say your a godsend with links so i would never criticise well unless they were consistently wrong :winky: ....has actually dropped to 1.6 here with a dewpoint of 0.4 but not too much sign of any beefy showers heading this way

although that link is broken

[dinger]

My phrase of the winter so far has to be "meteorological purgatory" used by our own Dante Alighieri, LS in the model thread.

He's ours and we're keeping him. What a man

[Mesosphere]

chucking it down with snow here

Edit : starting to lie

Edited January 26, 2012 by Calum

[snowy owl]

Heck, looked out and it was snowing (albeit wet snow) Now its back to rain grrrrr.

chucking it down with snow here

Send it this way Calum!!! Ta

Wet ground here - strangely no rain now! Await the snow from Haddington.

Edited January 26, 2012 by snowy owl

[Hairy Celt]

NMM suggesting the risk of a moderate snowfall tomorrow rush hour pushing west to east across most of central Scotland. It's been there for a few runs now so something to watching. Still too mild for snow here, 3.5/1C, but given the instability of the airmass passing through a few hours clearing after this shower should see us all in with a shout of snow tomorrow morning. Possibility of something more substantial on Sunday with the UKMO, GFS doesn't have a very nice tilt for it though. After that, a continental flow of some kind is likely, most probably the garbage kind away from the east coast as advertised by HC and MWIS, but after that, who knows. Westerlies being scrubbed according to GP - let's hope they're scrubbed for the rest of winter!

A look at this evening's ECM doesn't look very favourable for snow prospects for us for the medium term. Someone with more knowledge could have a look but all I see from Tuesday onwards are mild or cool uppers from the west. Seems to be a similar picture from GFS although that goes predictably bonkers after about Friday.

[LomondSnowstorm]

A look at this evening's ECM doesn't look very favourable for snow prospects for us for the medium term. Someone with more knowledge could have a look but all I see from Tuesday onwards are mild or cool uppers from the west. Seems to be a similar picture from GFS although that goes predictably bonkers after about Friday.

Yeah, the ECM in FI isn't exactly the most promising run but there are completely irreconcilable differences between the model outputs after about +120 regarding the positioning and orientation of the block. On the GFS the block to the northeast doesn't sink which then keeps us in with a shout later on if a low can track south of it http://cdn.nwstatic....192/h500slp.png 12Z GFS ensembles are generally mixed but with some very cold outputs.

I think all the models have a continental flow of some kind up to +120. I'd personally rate it as a 50/50 scenario longer term between easterlies and mild southwesterlies, perhaps slightly more in the cold's favour simply because of the ECM 32 dayer and some favourable news regarding Mountain Torque and global wind.

Maybe I'm being a bit IMBY too - the Black Isle isn't exactly noted for doing well out of easterlies and certainly not continental ones. The snow potential for you I suppose would come from undercutting too, if the undercut is a bit too far north for the MT's liking and the coldest air ends up - like the aussie model perhaps http://modeles.meteo...om-0-204.png?12

That then opens the door to the north.

Edited January 26, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[edo]

was the google map ever fixed?? be cool when getting snow reports to see exactly where some of these places are

[Hairy Celt]

Yeah, the ECM in FI isn't exactly the most promising run but there are completely irreconcilable differences between the model outputs after about +120 regarding the positioning and orientation of the block. On the GFS the block to the northeast doesn't sink which then keeps us in with a shout later on if a low can track south of it http://cdn.nwstatic....192/h500slp.png 12Z GFS ensembles are generally mixed but with some very cold outputs. I think all the models have a continental flow of some kind up to +120. I'd personally rate it as a 50/50 scenario longer term between easterlies and mild southwesterlies, perhaps slightly more in the cold's favour simply because of the ECM 32 dayer and some favourable news regarding Mountain Torque and global wind. Maybe I'm being a bit IMBY too - the Black Isle isn't exactly noted for doing well out of easterlies and certainly not continental ones. The snow potential for you I suppose would come from undercutting too, if the undercut is a bit too far north for the MT's liking and the coldest air ends up - like the aussie model perhaps http://modeles.meteo...om-0-204.png?12 That then opens the door to the north.

Thanks, a bit more understanding helps! You're right about the Black Isle too, easterly flows just mean dull, raw and ppn-free. I guess some of the fields & woods might dry out a bit...

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel...M0-216.GIF?26-0

That's the best set of ensembles we've seen all year. It does hide two very distinct groupings though http://www.ecmwf.int...ot!2009112700!!

One is the beast from the east, the other the pest from the west.

Ok then, for tonight I'm going to stick to my guns on the back of those ensembles and back the easterly to win through. There are good reasons to disagree and I'm not 100% convinced by any means but this just doesn't look like a typical phantom to me.

Edited January 26, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[lorenzo]

LS, here is the frictional torque chart, popped this in the tech thread too, there is a link to an American Wx post there which sums up the entire thing worth a read..

In straight forward terms for anyone wondering what we are slavering on about -looking along 60N that orange sector on the top right of the chart denotes an easterly flow (begins around mid jan) whereas you can see the ramped up westerly regime and the Polar Vortex prior to this. Loosely ties in with the same period of positive AO ( approx 60 days).

ECM ensembles have some varied solutions within.

Like this one for the monster high i.e not squashed by the Atlantic onslaught..

And this one for the undercutting low..

Edited January 26, 2012 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

LS, here is the frictional torque chart, popped this in the tech thread too, there is a link to an American Wx post there which sums up the entire thing worth a read..

In straight forward terms for anyone wondering what we are slavering on about -looking along 60N that orange sector on the top right of the chart denotes an easterly flow (begins around mid jan) whereas you can see the ramped up westerly regime and the Polar Vortex prior to this. Loosely ties in with the same period of positive AO ( approx 60 days).

Thanks very much, I'll just have a look at that post now.

[BleakMidwinter]

In straight forward terms for anyone wondering what we are slavering on about

Ah splendid - the Ambassador provides a translation service as well!

Ta

Light drizzle earlier, dry now. Bit nippy but not really anything. Nae snaw, nae rain, nae cold, nae anything....

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72348-project-on-weather-forecasting-and-society/

I'd appreciate if you could do the poll and comment with your thoughts - are seasonal forecasts worthwhile? Could they become as widely used as 5 day forecasts with a bit more investment in a few years time? It's for my science bac. and I genuinely don't know what my conclusions will be yet having interviewed farmers, fishermen and shopowners alike.

[Cheggers]

Had wet snaw aboot 6pm but nothing settled. been between 0c and 2c all day, and we now have freezing fog in the village, which makes Bonnybridge look very pretty (hidden)

Edited January 26, 2012 by Cheggers

[Cheggers]

http://forum.netweat...ng-and-society/

I'd appreciate if you could do the poll and comment with your thoughts - are seasonal forecasts worthwhile? Could they become as widely used as 5 day forecasts with a bit more investment in a few years time? It's for my science bac. and I genuinely don't know what my conclusions will be yet having interviewed farmers, fishermen and shopowners alike.

Done

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS 18z isn't great so far BUT it is one run and each run will give conflicting views to who's winning the battle. If an easterly attempt fails in the timeframe between 72hrs and 180hrs then it's not a problem because I believe that ridging into Scandi will be probable and I believe that there may be an increased chance of heights over the mid atlantic and/or Greenland.

So anyone who is saying winter is over and worse than 2006/2007 is completly wrong as there is a battle about to start and this easterly won't give up without a fight. In the end I think the cold will end, it's just a matter of when as I do believe that the battle will commence into March. Potentially we could see a very cold end to February and start to March.

Perhaps we should start a poll about who's going to win the battle.

I'll give my vote - The cold will win sometime between now and mid February and set up and whole load of oppurtunties for the following 30 days.

[snowy owl]

all done LS.

[edo]

Well that filled 30 seconds so cheers LS.....oh so quiet in here.....waiting on some detailed analysis....Sunday gaining potential Or another damp squib

Dew point and temp both below freezing now....any showers out there

[over_the_rainbow]

Voted LS - Good luck with it.

[snowy owl]

just ice here, oping some snow might materialise from sunday/mon.

oops sticky HHHHHHH key - note to self stop eating whilst typing.....

Edited January 26, 2012 by snowy owl

[Cheggers]

Dew point and temp both below freezing now....any showers out there

Radar looking fairly quiet at present, a few showers off the West coast, but nothing to get excited aboot yet.

[Hairy Celt]

just ice here, oping some snow might materialise from sunday/mon.

oops sticky HHHHHHH key - note to self stop eating whilst typing.....

Yeah young HC1 spilled beer all over this keyboard a while back & tried to blame it on me! Tssk. Fortunately now restricted to the tab key and that stupid key above it ````````` that some people use as an apostrophe. Don't start me on punctuation oh god this hurts...