Scotland Regional Discussion - January Part 2

[lorenzo]

To Beasterly or not to Beasterly that is the question.. for all your Kilted weather chat look no further than here.

A few of us will be celebrating this week ... pop in and have a wee dram.. If you haven't posted before say Hello..

Ye Pow'rs wha mak mankind your care,

And dish them out their bill o' fare,

Auld Scotland wants nae skinking ware

That jaups in luggies;

But, if ye wish her gratefu' prayer,

Gie her a haggis! ( or a Northrly / Eastrly)

[Hairy Celt]

Heavy RAIN showers here this morning. Which leads into my doom & gloom mode - all I see forecast this week are very marginal snow events, with at least one of the many potential flies in the ointment getting caught in our teeth. So if you want to follow the goats up the hills, fine, you'll get your fix, but if you peer out of your window at 100m asl...

Cheers, Lorenzo!

Edited January 22, 2012 by Hairy Celt
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[BleakMidwinter]

Bright blue skies, mild breeze and strong sunshine all morning here in Embra.

Hmph!

Bah humbug, even!

Here's hoping that beasterly comes a-calling...

[howham]

Sunny but chilly here and still snow lying from the unexpected fall overnight!

[thebigyin]

really bitter today. nice and sunny though. snow on the outskirts of the city with just a little elevation. off for a walk in it to get my fix...

[Cheggers]

Blue skies and biting wind, but car needs a clean, so going to get my coats on.

[Hairy Celt]

Blue skies and biting wind, but car needs a clean, so going to get my coats on.

More than one coat? That sounds bad, are you trying your BM impression?

Showers eased now, looks nice out but I have to sit here this afternoon and put together a proposal for some work that might ease the pain of redundancy later this year. So be it. Tappety tap.

[BleakMidwinter]

Hey, it's so mild and sunny and only a gentle zephyr here, that I just went round to the shops in only two jumpers and a cardi!

(er, and jeans, boots, etc., of course - no need to frighten the horses and make the natives restless!)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Bit of an upgrade on the 12Z:

:yahoo:

Edited January 22, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Hairy Celt]

Bit of an upgrade on the 12Z: :yahoo:

You're just after another one of these...

[A Winter's Tale]

Some brilliant runs recently from the models and the 12Z GFS run was absolutely fantastic. At the moment, I feel that it's very likely that the High Pressure over Russia will rest in High Pressure to be found to our NE resulting in a decent chance of a notable easterly. And the PV is looking a bit weaker and it seems that the trend is looking good for heights over Scandi (first of all) and perhaps some Blocking over Greenland into February.

Looking very good at the moment.

[A Winter's Tale]

I was expecting to read a model thread in melt-down mode - instead it was fairly quiet if not on the downside about a poor run from some other models. Also, I read that the easterly shown by the GFS 12Z would only bring a few light snow showers. Surely there needs to be more optimism considering a great run from the GFS and the general trend?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I was expecting to read a model thread in melt-down mode - instead it was fairly quiet if not on the downside about a poor run from some other models. Also, I read that the easterly shown by the GFS 12Z would only bring a few light snow showers. Surely there needs to be more optimism considering a great run from the GFS and the general trend?

It's because it's the UKMO that's not playing ball, there's a history of the UKMO 'stopping' an easterly by not falling into line and there are fears it could happen again. However, the 'light snow showers' comment is perhaps a bit IMBYist for the southeast - we'd have -8- -10C uppers and a moderate easterly flow so snowfall at least for eastern Scotland would be similar to perhaps the Wednesday/Thursday of last winter's superlative easterly (I honestly don't believe we'll see an easterly of that stature for Scotland for another 15-20 years unless we're very lucky). However, as you say it's the trend that counts and the trend is, at the moment, a bit ambiguous between models and background signals, but I think we're due for at least one bite of the cherry in the coming fortnight, be it from the north or east.

[Cheggers]

More than one coat? That sounds bad, are you trying your BM impression?

Showers eased now, looks nice out but I have to sit here this afternoon and put together a proposal for some work that might ease the pain of redundancy later this year. So be it. Tappety tap.

Don't think I would even get close to BM.

Nice evening but temp falling, now 3c.

Is it a definate?

[Hairy Celt]

Don't think I would even get close to BM. Nice evening but temp falling, now 3c. Is it a definate?

No, the ECM just wees all over the idea with a gigantic Azores radiator sticking one up the Beast. Everyone now loves GFS.

[LomondSnowstorm]

No, the ECM just wees all over the idea with a gigantic Azores radiator sticking one up the Beast. Everyone now loves GFS.

It's not horrible, it's just not very interesting http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012212/ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

A few hundred miles further north....

Damned radiator refused to budge west so is now going to try and scupper the easterly for us with its last breath.

[Northern Strath]

Cold dark and boring would be the weather from today, at least the wind has calmed down. 2.1C

Always loved a bit of David Thorne too Lorenzo, comedy gold indeed. The email about the spider is legendary but I especially love 'Missing Missy' http://www.27bslash6.com/missy.html

Edited January 22, 2012 by Northern Strath

[howham]

Aurora visible tonight! Clear arc to the north!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aurora visible tonight! Clear arc to the north!!

I think I may be able to see it too actually, quite faintly but there is definitely a green tinged ark. Unless I'm just imagining things...

[Cheggers]

I think I may be able to see it too actually, quite faintly but there is definitely a green tinged ark. Unless I'm just imagining things...

Mmmmmm here as well I think, although cloud has now passed to the North of here, will look again in a wee while. Will ask the Outlaws as well in Forres.

Edited January 22, 2012 by Cheggers

[edo]

Some tweets from Matt tonight....it's kinda weird this level of uncertainty...I can't recall a time like it

“@MattHugo81: There isn't enough characters on twitter to highlight the number of synoptic possibilities evident within the ECM ENS clusters this eve...â€

“@MattHugo81: The variability of the ECM ENS this evening is beyond belief for a forecaster. As early as next wkend we could almost have everything!...â€

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some tweets from Matt tonight....it's kinda weird this level of uncertainty...I can't recall a time like it

“@MattHugo81: There isn't enough characters on twitter to highlight the number of synoptic possibilities evident within the ECM ENS clusters this eve...â€

“@MattHugo81: The variability of the ECM ENS this evening is beyond belief for a forecaster. As early as next wkend we could almost have everything!...â€

Take a look for yourself - it's insane(I think the number of exclamation marks in the url makes that clear) http://www.ecmwf.int...ot!2009112700!!

I commented that the GEFS was similarly mixed up but usually the ECM is a bit clearer. Anyway, the ECM 32 dayer is out tomorrow and that will be key as last time it was baltic to say the least for us. UKMO is the other model to check, owing to its unwillingness to cooperate tonight. FI might just flip completely overnight - who knows frankly with the models.

edit: GP's latest update is out - gives support to the ECM/GFS scenario of heights either over us or just to the north, with troughing establishing over Europe and the potential for upgrades as time goes on. Not to blow my own trumpet or anything but I reckon my LRF is about right just delayed slightly - dull cool drizzly weather Friday onwards for here before surface cold becomes established and eventually perhaps some easterly snowfalls if troughing to the south plays ball.

Edited January 22, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

2c currently with a ground frost in sheltered areas.Some signs from nature,vast skeins of geese coming into neighbouring fields to feed in the last few days, huge flocks of pigeons feeding on stubbles in the last few days with maybe some extras migrating from Scandinavia and have seen and heard quite a lot of flighting woodcock at dusk again numbers again possibly being augmented by migratory birds from Scandinavia. Cattle really clearing everything we put in front of them. Cold now well and truly established in Moscow nights down to -21c

[edo]

Take a look for yourself - it's insane(I think the number of exclamation marks in the url makes that clear) http://www.ecmwf.int...ot!2009112700!!

I commented that the GEFS was similarly mixed up but usually the ECM is a bit clearer. Anyway, the ECM 32 dayer is out tomorrow and that will be key as last time it was baltic to say the least for us. UKMO is the other model to check, owing to its unwillingness to cooperate tonight. FI might just flip completely overnight - who knows frankly with the models.

edit: GP's latest update is out - gives support to the ECM/GFS scenario of heights either over us or just to the north, with troughing establishing over Europe and the potential for upgrades as time goes on. Not to blow my own trumpet or anything but I reckon my LRF is about right just delayed slightly - dull cool drizzly weather Friday onwards for here before surface cold becomes established and eventually perhaps some easterly snowfalls if troughing to the south plays ball.

holy moly if it was my real job to pick through that lot and establish a forecast as a professional I think i would call in sick....would love to listen into a team meeting in Exeter as they discussed that selection...Heinz must be in charge now with that much variety......your forecast could be talked of in years to come if you pull this off

I read GP tonight and to be fair he and SMurr have always been consistent with how long this could take to come off as have you and Lorenzo and even if it does not it has been fascinating watching and learning how the jigsaw could come together...

at least there are not appear to be signs of too many major atlantic storms rolling in

[Snooz]

2c currently with a ground frost in sheltered areas.Some signs from nature,vast skeins of geese coming into neighbouring fields to feed in the last few days, huge flocks of pigeons feeding on stubbles in the last few days with maybe some extras migrating from Scandinavia and have seen and heard quite a lot of flighting woodcock at dusk again numbers again possibly being augmented by migratory birds from Scandinavia. Cattle really clearing everything we put in front of them. Cold now well and truly established in Moscow nights down to -21c

funny you should say that about nature, my wee man cmmented about the geese as we were driving to basketball on saturday morning.. they, the geese, were coming in.. and he thought that was strange! when he asked me should they be doing that (coming home so early) I was lost .. I knew something was weird, but not what!