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leicsnow

February CET

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Just thought I'd start the new upcoming monthly CET topic.

What's your punt? Mines 4.5.

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Just thought I'd start the new upcoming monthly CET topic.

What's your punt? Mines 4.5.

Pointless to guess now going to wait to see what happens post T144

50/50 cold to very cold or average cant see it being mild (at present)

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Blocking to be in the wrong place so another mild month 5.5C

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-1.1C

Nah, just kidding, I will go for 4.0c, since all my other below average guesses have been wrong.

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A quickie from me. Cold from the east at times, generally rather blocked with continental influence, 2.8C.

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settled ish first half, but not cold like 14-17 Jan, Atlantic dominated 2nd half, 5.1C

something like 2.0C first half, 7.1C 2nd half

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Too early to call but I'm preety confident it will turn out to be appreciably the coldest month of the winter - not a tough job by any means I hear many say..

As it often the case the atlantic will be much quieter than it was in Dec and Jan - and blocking much more in evidence, it has potential to be the coldest since 1991.

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I hope it's as snowy too..

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I'll punt at 5.9

First half just above normal, but notable warmth in the last week of the month heralding an early spring.

Winter overall in the V Mild category (not as warm as 88/89), perhaps coming in at 3rd or 4th mildest.

Talk about sticking my neck out... :shok:

Edit: Hope I'm very wrong of course!!!!!!!

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Does anyone know what the greatest difference between a mild January and a cold February in the CET series?

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Does anyone know what the greatest difference between a mild January and a cold February in the CET series?

Have a look at 1969 GP. Jan 5.5c, Feb 1.0. Happened when a western based neg.NAO in Jan, switched to an eastern based one in Feb.

Regards,

Tom.

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what about 1983?...wasnt it something like 6.7 Jan to 1.7 Feb?..probably wrong..but do remember that swing.

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Does anyone know what the greatest difference between a mild January and a cold February in the CET series?

The largest collapse on record in the CET from January to February was in 1983, when the CET went from 6.7 in Jan 1983 to 1.7 in Feb 1983. Whilst winter 1982-83 was close to average overall, it was a record winter in terms of seeing the greatest fall in the CET from January to February on record.

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Thanks all... Good to see that what we are hoping for isn't unprecedented then!

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Feb 1983 proof if ever needed a very mild Jan can't be preceded by a cold February. I suspect 1956 saw quite a difference between Jan and Feb as well.

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Based on the fact that mild Januarys similar to this one are hardly ever followed by cold Februarys, my guess for Feb 2012 is :

4.4

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