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Konstantinos

Tropical Cyclone Ethel

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si201207_5day.gif

si201207_sat.jpg

And an image from google earth:

cyclone1.png

http://www.wundergro...ire=0&ft=0&sl=0

http://www.wundergro...aprod=flashtool

Mauritius is the nearest country: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauritius

Also Rodrigues, is an island in which the hurricane will pass (there is chance by the last prognosis). It has 37922 population: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigues

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Watch developments over waters off the northern Australian coast from Sunday onwards.

There is a good probability of a monsoon trough forming into a low, and then bombing into a cyclone. Probably by Tuesday is my guess, if everything falls into place.

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07S has been given the name Ethel. Intensity is currently 35kts. Ethel has an irregular CDO and some good banding. Some fairly swift intensification is expected as the system heads polewards through warm water, low shear and good outflow. Mauritius and Rodrigues need to pay close attention to Ethel as Konstantinos says.

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Despite the highly favourable environment, Ethel has not intensified as fast as forecast. Intensity has risen to 45kts. Ethel has a CDO feature of sorts but it is elongated. However, some intensification is still expected as Ethel moves southward.

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Ethel has rapidly strengthened overnight and is now a cat 1 on the SS scale with intensity now at 70kts. Further strengthening is expected. The cyclone has an emerging eye embedded in a more circular CDO feature this morning.

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Ahhh, they've named a storm after my late Grandmother!

Here's she is in all her glory courtesy NASA:

616953main_20120119_Ethel-MODIS-FULL.jpg

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Storm Ethel on January 19, 2012 after she was born in the Southern Indian Ocean. The island of Rodrigues is now under Tropical Cyclone Warnings as Ethel approaches and strengthens.

When Aqua passed over newborn Ethel at 09:30 UTC (4:30 a.m. EST) on Jan. 19, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard Aqua captured a visible image of the storm, and showed that it had good circulation. The strongest storms appear to be around the center and northwest of center. Bands of thunderstorms from the east-southeast appear to spiral into Ethel's center on the MODIS satellite imagery.

At 0300 UTC on January 19 (10 p.m. EST, Jan. 18) Tropical Storm Ethel had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/65 kmh). Ethel was 810 miles east-northeast of La Reunion Island, centered near 14.2 South longitude and 67.7 East latitude. Ethel was moving to the west-southwest at 11 knots (~13 mph/20 kmh).

Currently, Ethel threatens the island of Rodrigues. Rodrigues is the smallest of the Mascarene Islands and was home to 40,000 people in 2006. It is a dependency of Mauritius. According to Wikipedia, it is located 348 miles (560 km) east of Mauritius island. It is surrounded by a coral reef and is about 43 square miles (109 km²).

The Mauritus Meteorological Service (MMS) has posted a tropical cyclone class two warning for Rodrigues. A class two warning means that within 12 hours, the warning area will likely experience hurricane-force wind gusts of 75 mph (120 kilometers) per hour. The MMS calls for downpours and gusty winds today, with rain becoming heavier and more frequent on January 20. Sustained winds are expected to be near 25 mph (40 kmh) with gusts as high as 56 mph (90 kmh) during the evening hours on Jan. 19, 2012. Seas are expected to be rough. For updates in French and Creole, visit: http://metservice.in...u/?page_id=625.

Because Ethel is in an area with warm sea surface temperatures (warmer than the 80F/26.6C threshold needed to maintain a tropical cyclone) and low wind shear, she is expected to strengthen quickly into hurricane (cyclone) strength. Afterward, Ethel is expected to encounter increased wind shear conditions which will again weaken the storm.

The cyclone is forecast to intensify rapidly to hurricane strength before adverse atmospheric conditions prompt a weakening trend.

http://www.nasa.gov

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LOL Coast!

Yes, Rodrigues is directly in the firing line from Ethel. And looking at the small and increasingly well defined eye evident on satellite imagery, Ethel is intensifying rapidly.

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Ethel peaked at 75kts. The cyclone is now weakening rapidly as it moves quickly southwards in an environment of high shear and rapidly decreasing sea temperatures. Extratropical transition is beginning, which should be complete in a day or so as Ethel accelerates southeastwards out of the tropics.

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JTWC have issued the last advisory on Ethel this afternoon. The large swirl of clouds are devoid of deep convection, indicating Ethel has become extratropical.

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