Model Discussion January 18th

[IanM]

A perfect grey day to discuss the models as they paint a picture of the future, and we argue about the use of F1 and fl.

Keep it on topic please, and remember the chat and banter thread is there to keep this thread more model related and less bantered

[john mac]

Litle change so far on the 12z. At t104 low digging slightly further south into europe.

At t120 the low forming in the atlantic further south too.

Positive signs.

Also russian high ridging west as a result of the low going further south in central europe.

I think this is going to be decent run up to the start of the low res at least

Edited January 18, 2012 by john mac

[Tim Bland]

Lets hope the GFS is either overdoing that low in the atlantic or it tracks further south as on its current course it will do us no good in terms of a cold pattern.

[john mac]

It looks like its tracking a bit further south, also pressure is weaker to our south west.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Another mundane gfs op run with the one system after another crashing off the eastern seaboard preventing any sort of blocking across northern latitudes.Could this jan be snowless for the majority of the UK,i'm beginning to feel it will.

Maybe gfs is being too aggressive with the jetstream,lets hope it is.

[Zakos]

Although there is good consistency with things such as the canadian high, the russian high continues to be modelled very variably. Its core is a good few 100km further west on this run, even at a fairly close range. Until this is modelled correctly the fine details are irrelevant. Its presence or its absence is going to have a large effect on our weather. Surely, if a greenland high were to form we would want the russian high to retreat? Or is a scandi high more likely directly from the russian high.

[karyo]

Too much residual low pressure left in the Atlantic which spoils our chances in the high resolution part of the 12z gfs.

Karyo

[trevw]

Lets hope the GFS is either overdoing that low in the atlantic or it tracks further south as on its current course it will do us no good in terms of a cold pattern.

I have a vague memory that the GFS tends to overdo lows and that the northward motion of the low is related to it's depth in which case you would get both wishes?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well the high to the east is more developed on this run!

The experts are saying look East, maybe we should start believing?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Too much residual low pressure left in the Atlantic which spoils our chances in the high resolution part of the 12z gfs.

Karyo

GFS shows some extremely cold temps for GReenland on that op run which is inturn feeding the jet.

The big anticyclone sat to the NE has been pretty much there all the way through Jan its just not got a look in due to the super strong voretx.

[nick sussex]

I'd be dubious of the output past 96hrs as the UKMO and GFS disagree, at 120hrs the UKMO promises much but doesn't deliver at 144hrs but I think we need to be looking to the ne.

That low is a nuisance to the west especially as the UKMO 120hrs could develop so much better with just a little trough disruption.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

IMO the UKMO T120 NH chart looks great for cold prospects

But then the ridge gets battered out of the way at T144, still that monster low at T144 looks like it could move SE to me if it were to verify, big big big if past T120

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I'd be dubious of the output past 96hrs as the UKMO and GFS disagree, at 120hrs the UKMO promises much but doesn't deliver at 144hrs but I think we need to be looking to the ne.

That low is a nuisance to the west especially as the UKMO 120hrs could develop so much better with just a little trough disruption.

But surely the Russian high is not going to influence us while there is a big fat low in Scandinavia is it?, surely our cold prospects are more likely to come from this trough?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Dark blues and purples returning to Greenland in FI http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012011812-0-192.png?12

Looks somewhat unlikely to say the least.

[January Snowstorm]

Having viewed the gfs and ukmo the words game is up come to mind.

Absolutley no sign of anything even remotely like height rises to our North

Can Feb save the Winter, hopefully!

[mulzy]

IMO the UKMO T120 NH chart looks great for cold prospects

But then the ridge gets battered out of the way at T144, still that monster low at T144 looks like it could move SE to me if it were to verify, big big big if past T120

That monster low also appears on the NOGAPS and GEM tonight at 144h - not a good sign at all

very quiet in here tonight - that speaks volumes.

Edited January 18, 2012 by mulzy

[warrenb]

So we are all panicking about a monster low that wasn't even there 6 hours ago.

[Andy_]

I presume this is the 'First Scenario', the Met Office are calling...

Hopefully this pattern (or scenario) will not depart from Fantasy Island

[Tim Bland]

So we are all panicking about a monster low that wasn't even there 6 hours ago.

I'm afraid it was there 6hrs ago - see below for the 06z

Edited January 18, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Weather Wizard]

I'm afraid it was there 6hrs ago - see below for the 06z

No the one warrenb is talking about is on the 1st of feb yours is on the 24th of jan

[shedhead]

Regarding GFS and UKMO this evening, it's most definately a case of one step forward two steps back. We're again forced into using to many if's but's and maybe's, as well as the dreaded 'P' word. I suppose the one positive that can be drawn from all this inconsistany is this run is no more likely to verify than the previous or the next, but what we really did need to see this evening was all 3 main players building on the improvements of the 00 runs. Let's hope ECM can pull a cold rabbit out of a somewhat warmer hat.

[snow drift]

I presume this is the 'First Scenario', the Met Office are calling...

Hopefully this pattern (or scenario) will not depart from Fantasy Island

I like it when cold is being modelled to far west. Many times in the past as time gets nearer the cold is modelled further east.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

So we are all panicking about a monster low that wasn't even there 6 hours ago.

I dont think thats fair warren.

The general picture remains disturbed across the Atlantic and there is next to no sign of any blocking across higher latitudes influencing the UK.For all the signals suggesting otherwise we have remained generally unsettled and above avergae from the end of Nov right through until now and for the life of me i cant see any chinks of light.

I have been a member on here 11 years and anone who knows me knows i love the cold and snow as much as the next snowramper but i aint going to ramp up someting that doesn;t exist and as far as i am concerned we are as far away now from a decent cold snowy spell as we were on Dec 1st.

GFS is going for a pos NAO pretty much right through its run and ukmo has another super low primed off the ES ready to flatten out the Atlantic patternat 144h.

[warrenb]

Ah now you have hit the nail on the head, no high latitude blocking AFFECTING THE UK, there is plenty of blocking at high latitude, just not in the right place for us yet. We all know that most thing shift East nearer the time.

[Tim Bland]

My mistake..Thanks for deleting. See below for (hopefully this time) the low there on the 06Z