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Osbourne One-Nil

Model Discussion - January 17th

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I love this time of day - I think it's the anticipation that keeps me going; the not knowing what is about to happen...will it be an exciting outcome, or a bitter disappointment? Oh I love it. So while I settle down to watch Deal or No Deal, you can all talk about the models.

Stay on topic and don't argue.

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I love this time of day - I think it's the anticipation that keeps me going; the not knowing what is about to happen...will it be an exciting outcome, or a bitter disappointment? Oh I love it. So while I settle down to watch Deal or No Deal, you can all talk about the models.

Stay on topic and don't argue.

The latest Met Office forecast suggests just how much uncertainty there is in the models at the minute.

We are dealing with a major pattern change, and the models need to adjust to that.

Looking at the odds at the moment, it's looking like the Met Office are 60-40% in favour of mild over cold at the moment.

The ensembles are all over the place from around the 21st, so I'm starting to think that we may need to be looking into the medium term for change, rather than gazing at the little FI eye candy the models have to offer.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

At the moment, the ECM is out-doing the GFS, not in consistency, but the realism of the set ups that it's offering. The GFS has been the more consistent model for many days now, showing a zonal, flat pattern that's highly vulnerable to change. I think at this present moment in time, we should be looking towards the ECM, UKMO and even the lesser NOGAPS model. In my honest opinion, we should be paying more attention to the ensemble runs, over the operationals from BOTH the GFS and ECM.

Give it till Friday, if we're not starting to see a colder solution. I'll eat my socks all over again. :winky:

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How can you stand Noel Edmonds? even the current lack of snow beats Deal,ah well think I will get a life and play scrabble on line until the Russian high gets its act together.

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The latest Met Office forecast suggests just how much uncertainty there is in the models at the minute.

We are dealing with a major pattern change, and the models need to adjust to that.

Looking at the odds at the moment, it's looking like the Met Office are 60-40% in favour of mild over cold at the moment.

The ensembles are all over the place from around the 21st, so I'm starting to think that we may need to be looking into the medium term for change, rather than gazing at the little FI eye candy the models have to offer.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

At the moment, the ECM is out-doing the GFS, not in consistency, but the realism of the set ups that it's offering. The GFS has been the more consistent model for many days now, showing a zonal, flat pattern that's highly vulnerable to change. I think at this present moment in time, we should be looking towards the ECM, UKMO and even the lesser NOGAPS model. In my honest opinion, we should be paying more attention to the ensemble runs, over the operationals from BOTH the GFS and ECM.

Give it till Friday, if we're not starting to see a colder solution. I'll eat my socks all over again. :winky:

Trouble is the ensembles are all over the place too, they are up and down like a ho's kinckers, it's impossible to tell which way it is going to go using the ensembles at this stage.

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The latest Met Office forecast suggests just how much uncertainty there is in the models at the minute.

We are dealing with a major pattern change, and the models need to adjust to that.

Looking at the odds at the moment, it's looking like the Met Office are 60-40% in favour of mild over cold at the moment.

The ensembles are all over the place from around the 21st, so I'm starting to think that we may need to be looking into the medium term for change, rather than gazing at the little FI eye candy the models have to offer.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

At the moment, the ECM is out-doing the GFS, not in consistency, but the realism of the set ups that it's offering. The GFS has been the more consistent model for many days now, showing a zonal, flat pattern that's highly vulnerable to change. I think at this present moment in time, we should be looking towards the ECM, UKMO and even the lesser NOGAPS model. In my honest opinion, we should be paying more attention to the ensemble runs, over the operationals from BOTH the GFS and ECM.

Give it till Friday, if we're not starting to see a colder solution. I'll eat my socks all over again. :winky:

:rofl: :rofl:

Is this a last minute substitute? Its time has finally come........... to play in the model cup final!

I hope it scores the winning goal!

Seriously though, some of the lesser models have been performing as well with this pattern change as the three big ones. The GEM is certainly one to watch in my opinion as it has picked out patterns before some of the other models in the past, especially cold weather patterns.

The Meto update was quite a shock, maybe we will see some developments on the 12z's later on?

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Trouble is the ensembles are all over the place too, they are up and down like a ho's kinckers, it's impossible to tell which way it is going to go using the ensembles at this stage.

I'm looking for trends in the ensembles, not solid agreement in FI :p

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Perhaps we should focus on the weather we are going to experience on friday, with a possible snow risk. The models have been so poor lately, and it is likely the will continue to do so until, say, 96 hours before the pattern change occurs. So any low res output can be safely ignored IMO in terms of the fine details.

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I'm looking for trends in the ensembles, not solid agreement in FI :p

There has been height rises in Greenland being shown on last couple of GFS runs, that is something of interest and a good sign hopefully

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Posted · Hidden by phil nw., January 17, 2012 - Not mod.disc.
Hidden by phil nw., January 17, 2012 - Not mod.disc.

What sort of info do the MetO have access to that we lesser mortals aren't allowed to see?

It seems to it must be something pretty dramatic for such a turnaround. Can't remember the last time they updated their forecast twice in one day...

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I think it's important - at this point - to ensure that the term 'risk' is not ignored; while the Met Office may have released 'exciting' outlooks - it's just a risk of it, ie: it's NOT nailed-on. I think it's an important point to make, as it sounds a 50/50 call to me. Personally, I wouldn't wanna be hedging my bets on a 50/50 shot, because - rightly so - the Met Office have also outlined what the quite boring and tiresome - yet also plausible - outcome could be.

Factors conducive to the colder scenario though are favourable forecasted indices (AO & NAO) which lends credence to establishment of the blocking pattern. As we know though, NOTHING is certain in this game.

My interest will rest on how muh variance occurs in the ECMWF runs over the next 48hrs or so, as I think this is going to be absolutely crucial. I don't take any notice of the GFS as I believe it to be a mickey mouse model. I believe ECMWF will track the patterning better, and you'd have to infer that the Met Office's view has been influenced by the 32 ECM output. Therein, how that output filters down to the 'normal' output will be very interesting to view.

But I think it could go either way. Anyone trying to suggest they know - at this stage - is fooling only themselves. It would be nice to have a first real blast o the season though...

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I love this time of day - I think it's the anticipation that keeps me going; the not knowing what is about to happen...will it be an exciting outcome, or a bitter disappointment? Oh I love it. So while I settle down to watch Deal or No Deal, you can all talk about the models.

Stay on topic and don't argue.

You cynic :acute:

OK., we have some (more) interesting times ahead

the T120 FAX has the 528 Dam line from Liverpool to the Thames estuary with a very long draw from the North/Northwest.

But there's a very strange High/Depression combination in mid Atlantic between 40 and 50N

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I think it's important - at this point - to ensure that the term 'risk' is not ignored; while the Met Office may have released 'exciting' outlooks - it's just a risk of it, ie: it's NOT nailed-on. I think it's an important point to make, as it sounds a 50/50 call to me. Personally, I wouldn't wanna be hedging my bets on a 50/50 shot, because - rightly so - the Met Office have also outlined what the quite boring and tiresome - yet also plausible - outcome could be.

Factors conducive to the colder scenario though are favourable forecasted indices (AO & NAO) which lends credence to establishment of the blocking pattern. As we know though, NOTHING is certain in this game.

My interest will rest on how muh variance occurs in the ECMWF runs over the next 48hrs or so, as I think this is going to be absolutely crucial. I don't take any notice of the GFS as I believe it to be a mickey mouse model. I believe ECMWF will track the patterning better, and you'd have to infer that the Met Office's view has been influenced by the 32 ECM output. Therein, how that output filters down to the 'normal' output will be very interesting to view.

But I think it could go either way. Anyone trying to suggest they know - at this stage - is fooling only themselves. It would be nice to have a first real blast o the season though...

Sorry but I can't see how you can call the GFS a mickey mouse model, yet have complete faith in the ECM :mellow:

When everyone was calling this last weeks modeling the battle between GFS V ECM, the ECM has lost as it kept showing a 2/3 day easterly feed with blocking to the north. GFS was most right because it showed no significant blocking with a mainly zonal flow of air. (The period in question being T96 now which looks pretty much nailed on.) A truly DIRE performance from the ECM.

Back to the GFS, apart from this last month, it has performed admirably, most notibly on last winters performance.

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Posted · Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, January 17, 2012 - Naughty step
Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, January 17, 2012 - Naughty step

Can we stick to the models please, there's a thread for discussing the met output here:

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2215371

Just waiting for the 12z boss :)

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Posted · Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, January 17, 2012 - Naughty step (not model discussion!)
Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, January 17, 2012 - Naughty step (not model discussion!)

12Z underway, it is going to get busy in here.

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More ridging between Russian high and Greeny high?

gfsnh-2012011712-0-120.png?12

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Heights growing over Greenland by the weekend?

More ridging between Russian high and Greeny high?

gfsnh-2012011712-0-120.png?12

This is setting up nicely.

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Shame that it's only a surface high, but it could a particularly strong one. Polar vortex about 5dm weaker for the most up to +120 on this run, little difference but the N-Hemi run looks better in the short-term. The medium-long term will be intriguing.

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Heights growing over Greenland by the weekend?

This is setting up nicely.

Well it would give more potential in the medium to long term. As yet, the run hasn't pulled out anything particularly cold in the reliable time frame.

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Heights growing over Greenland by the weekend?

This is setting up nicely.

The PV is slightly further west again on this run (this has been on going for quite a few runs now - edging it west).

Heights are a bit better around Greenland as well.

Amazing the differences at 120 between the 6z and 12z in terms of depth and positioning of lows and something as major as the PV.

Could be an interesting middle part to this run! 160 - 180 is the crucial period for me in terms of longer developments.

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Just a suggestion, but when people comment on some aspect of a chart, like PV much further west, etc,could they also perhaps give a quick summary as to what that means in terms of what might result?

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Trend is my friend, PV further west on every run now. Starts off over Greenland and is now firmly in N Canada. Trough digging in closer to us each run with a good NW/SE tilt to it.

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Just a suggestion, but when people comment on some aspect of a chart, like PV much further west, etc,could they also perhaps give a quick summary as to what that means in terms of what might result?

The result is that the jet stream is less strong and more amplified.

post-9179-0-60741500-1326817776_thumb.pn

This measns that the the LP is more likley to go SE and the Azores high dissappear off as seen in the later frames.

post-9179-0-36955200-1326817795_thumb.pn

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