Forecast For 4th Feb 2012

[Alex]

In under 3 weeks time I get married and it would be really good if we could have a sunny dry day for the big day!

I have been checking the CFS charts daily which are changing hands more than Russian money to buy a world cup.

I will be putting my thoughts here using teleconnections, CFS charts and finally the models once they come into view. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

[AWD]

It could be mild, with spells on rain and strong winds coming in off the Atlantic, HP could move up from the SW and bring calm and settled conditions with overnight frosts, we could get a Easterly/NE flow which could bring snow showers across the UK, with a battleground scenario bringing significant snowfall to the UK, and we could have a northerly outbreak bringing low daytime maxima and snow showers, Southerly winds could also bring mild, springlike conditions to the UK!

Source: Based on the current model output over the last week

[cloudbase]

Don't worry about the weather and just enjoy every second of the big day because it will fly by! good luck for the future.

[Guest]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

This is for 02.02.2012 Alex - if that HP holds up for another couple of days, which may well happen, it could be a bootiful day - frosty first thing but clearing to luvly sunshine.

Congrats anyway and let's hope you both have a great day to remember.

[Wynn D Woo]

We got married on the 8th of February 2003 and the weather was largely cloudy, dry and quite cool. The sun did however peep out around the time of the photos luckily. Our reception was at nearly 300m ASL so I did worry a little about what we would do if it snowed alot (but i did hope for a little dusting)

On past anniversaries we have had snow on a few occasions and I dont remember any that were rainy. I would say statistically early feb will most likely be dry but on the cool side and given recent summers, you probably chose a better time of year

Good luck and TBH the day goes so fast you dont really have time to worry about the weather!

[Alex]

Today the CFS charts are showing a cold northwesterly thanks to a low situated to our northeast. The air looks to be of a polar maritime origin so sunshine and showers are likely. The isobars are quite tightly packed so probably windy too. The showers are likely to be wintry too so all in all not ideal.

Teleconnections support this (predicted -nao / -ao) to a degree as a ridge is taking residence in the Atlantic and its quite far west allowing air to flow down for the north.

I will update again tomorrow.

Thanks for everyone's posts so far!

Info taken from most recent CFS run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=444&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

[JASON221]

have a look

[AWD]

Well, According to the Met, its either going to be very mild and rather wet, or very cold and rather snowy! Take your pic????

[Alex]

Update from today.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=420&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

CFS showing a westerly regime with Essex either side of two depressions. A good call on this chart would be a showery spell and with the isobars widely open not very breezy! Good for my fianacees dress and photos! Not great if it pours with rain though!

I must add as others have, things are very uncertain about the trend that will develop and this will be the deciding factor of whether it's cold and snowy or mild and wet or favourably sunny and dry!

I will use the GFS tomorrow as its a tad more reliable and within the realms of FI!

Edited January 18, 2012 by Alex

[Guest]

Sat 04 FEB 2012

Show details 0 °C 10 mph 20 mph 1032 mB

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

[Alex]

Sat 04 FEB 2012

Show details 0 °C 10 mph 20 mph 1032 mB

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

A touch warmer and it's jackpot!

Todays GFS is showing the 12z very similar to the 00z in FI (for the 4th) with the Uk pulling in a southerly / SE feed from the continent under a nearby anticyclone.

Sunny, dry, light winds and probably chilly under this airflow. Shame it's not summer!

Something I've noticed today is the NAO forecasted to stay generally positive after a small blip.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

[Alex]

Slowly there is a trend developing, both the ECM & GFS charts show a similar low approaching from the west. A front looks like it may have passed overnight introducing slightly milder uppers as the cold ones have been pushed away to the north sea.

There is also some agreement from the met office that a Colder or more Zonal type of weather will develop after the upcoming more settled spell.

So probably a mostly cloudy rather cold day with further rain possible.

I will update tomorrow, hopefully with a sunny dry evolution !

[Alex]

Both the latest GFS and ECM models go with a settled scenairo until the 4th (my wedding day). However there is still great uncertainty and the orientation and intensity of the scandi high will be the main player.

Both runs are keen to link the Azores high with the scandi one around +228 hr. This would see a continuation of next weekssettled spell, however the day could be mixed with suggestion of the jet running over the top of the vanishing high.

I would support a slower evolution of this, so cold dry and bright seems favourable, both personally and scientifically!

With the models in a mess, Interestingly the NAO ensembles are much more tightly packed today!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

[Andy Bown]

Alex, are you driving your fiancé mad with the weather possibitlites for your wedding day?

I know I did in the weeks leading up to our wedding day last August!

The week beforehand went from a few of the days of the year, to the 2nd wettest day of the year, to a dull cool dry day and then the day itself

had showery rain in the morning, perfect fair weather Cumulus/blue sky/warm sunny spells at 22c at the important times (11.30-17.00) to downpours

in the evening when it didn't matter!

The way the day panned out was unforcastable because of 1 LOW pressure clearing, another LOW arriving and thankfully the brief ridge of HIGH

pressure was luckily timed!

Hope you get a settled day and that all goes well, come the day itself you'll possibly be too busy to take note however I had to keep my nerves down

by doing radar/satellite checks once all suited up lol !

[Alex]

Alex, are you driving your fiancé mad with the weather possibitlites for your wedding day?

I know I did in the weeks leading up to our wedding day last August!

The week beforehand went from a few of the days of the year, to the 2nd wettest day of the year, to a dull cool dry day and then the day itself

had showery rain in the morning, perfect fair weather Cumulus/blue sky/warm sunny spells at 22c at the important times (11.30-17.00) to downpours

in the evening when it didn't matter!

The way the day panned out was unforcastable because of 1 LOW pressure clearing, another LOW arriving and thankfully the brief ridge of HIGH

pressure was luckily timed!

Hope you get a settled day and that all goes well, come the day itself you'll possibly be too busy to take note however I had to keep my nerves down

by doing radar/satellite checks once all suited up lol !

Yes I'm definitely driving her mad lol! I keep scaring her with the possibilities of snow which would really cause problems for her travelling family.

Really got fingers crossed for a sunny dry day, frosty to start would be ideal!

[Guest]

Yes I'm definitely driving her mad lol! I keep scaring her with the possibilities of snow which would really cause problems for her travelling family.

Really got fingers crossed for a sunny dry day, frosty to start would be ideal!

I got married ever such a long while ago during the first week in April and we had snow showers but it did not settle, then we caught the 'honeymoon' flight to Jersey, as we did in those days and we had a marvellous week's weather - blue skies and it warmed up to reasonable temperatures - I hired a motor scooter to get around on and do not recall feeling cold - of course I had other things on my mind at the time

[Aaron]

I saw a video of two people getting married during a sand storm with severe gales - they powered through it!!! ;P

[Alex]

I think it's pretty safe to say that it'll be cold or very cold on the big day, it'll most likely be settled with bright or sunny skies however with that quite intense easterly flow and low uppers, a wintry shower can't be ruled out. The 5th is looking like some more prolonged snow could eventually move west from the near continent, this is something to keep an eye on, hopefully it stays away on the big day!

Further update tomorrow.

I saw a video of two people getting married during a sand storm with severe gales - they powered through it!!! ;P

At this rate a snow plough would be handy just in case, oh and a helicopter too!

[Alex]

Similar thoughts today with a dry day expected but very cold. It's likely to be bright or sunny but any frost patches will likely last as temperatures struggle to get above freezing with the very low uppers. There is a chance of the odd wintry shower but it's unlikely to become a big feature. Looking forward to it now!

[Alex]

Getting closer but things seems to be more uncertain (on the weather front !).

Currently I would side with a dry day and a very cold one but maybe clouding over later in the afternoon heralding a front from the west. Maybe a touch of sleet or snow in the evening if it manages to move over Essex. Hopefully it won't disrupt my honeymoon! Further update tomorrow.