Model Discussion - 16th January

[Tim Bland]

Jet digging south at 144hrs cold slipping south. Still looking good for Scotland and the NE

[January Snowstorm]

Poor ECM tonight, at 168hrs it's back to square one and the pattern looks very flat

[Snowy Easterly]

Time to get the prozac out, ECM is dreadful, Zonailty goes on and on and on

[PolarWarsaw]

Well, well, well im not going to doom mong as its only one run etc. But its a backtrack again in the sense, that even though we've been chasing something cold and snowy for over 2 weeks now we've got nowhere. On to the 0z YET AGAIN.

[phil nw.]

Maybe a bit more patience.

The change in pattern will take more time.No one is expecting a raging easterly by the weekend -with blizzards.

Let`s see what happens when the models have got to grips with the vortex disruption,which we can clearly see on the Northern hemisphere charts.

Edited January 16, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Matty M]

ECM may not look great, but i think the in the medium term it is a better path to take to an organised decent cold spell.

Get a PV lobe into Scandanavia and get pressure to build near the Greenland plateau

[danm]

ECM pretty darn poor out to 168, very different from a few days ago. Funnily enough it's the GFS which is looking better for cold prospects now.

ECm much flatter, heights stubbornly stick around to our south.

ECM @168:

[Isolated Frost]

This type of run could be worse in the short term, but with the main body of the polar vortex over the Canadian segment reducing, in the long term it could lead to something better. As ever we are about to find out!

Yes.. if one looks subjectively at the european outlook, the run is a downgrade, but an upper trough sinking into europe, accompanied by a west-moving russian high, and strong pfj activity was never going to provide an continental 'blast', despite some sorts. Looking at the NH view, I like this run a lot, as you say, I feel the ECMWF output tonight has took into account some new shifts in flux and zonal wind predictions.

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM decides to rebuild heights to the southeast at 168 http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?16-0

That to me looks completely against the background signals or any other model for that matter http://cdn.nwstatic....slBucharest.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....168/h500slp.png

Still, there's been so much model divergence lately and the PV looks in generally a much weaker state than in most other models that we may still get there in the end.

Edited January 16, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[chionomaniac]

Yes.. if one looks subjectively at the european outlook, the run is a downgrade, but an upper trough sinking into europe, accompanied by a west-moving russian high, and strong pfj activity was never going to provide an continental 'blast', despite some sorts. Looking at the NH view, I like this run a lot, as you say, I feel the ECMWF output tonight has took into account some new shifts in flux and zonal wind predictions.

Yes but that hasn't occurred by 168. Ah well.

[Geordiesnow]

Not much else to comment on the models from yesterday, as long as the high builds to our east we can tap into colder air, as is evident on the GFS output where an easterly is very close. Mid term seems the best place to look for any cold incursions from the east, not long term.

Interestingly BBC forecast suggest 'it could turn colder at the end of the week'

food for thought?

Mid-term? People were talking about the 19th Jan which is was the start where the ECM was very bullish of developing some sort of easterly and decent height rises over Greenland(albeit the ridge was forecast to head southwards but still ended up in a position where we were in the cold air), now we are looking at the mid-term again!?

That Russian high that people keep going on about has been there for most of the winter hence the mild continent! Part of me wishes it would be just shoot away and get replaced by lower height and some proper cold Arctic air and try and build a Scandi high because even outputs which did show an Easterly, the mild continent meant the -10hpa has not even got anywhere near us.

This ECM run for what its worth looks similar to what we had in Dec 2011, Atlantic lows in charge and at times we may get a chilly WNW'ly shot, Scandinavia is under mild southerlies and there is a PV over Greenland if albeit not a particularly strong one. However its only one run but at this stage, what the GFS output showed in previous days could well turn out to be correct at least for our part of the Northern Hemisphere!

[Brum Watcher]

The NAO AND AO dip. massive dip in the forecast for the AO. while seeing ECM unfold.(E)xtremely ©rap (M)odel run at the moment.

[Summer Sun]

ECM looks stormy at 192h

[danm]

The NAO AND AO dip. massive dip in the forecast for the AO. while seeing ECM unfold.(E)xtremely ©rap (M)odel run at the moment.

Please inform the ECM as this 12z run is looking like a very + NAO.

[snowray]

Hi all. Some great posts of late but here we are yet again, we get the split in the PV but its too far East, the Azores high remains omnipotant as ever. I'm starting to realise that this is a semi permanent feature, nowhere else on the globe does such an imense area of HP just sit around at those latitudes almost for ever ( But rarely that close to the UK in Summertime ;-) ).

We have the AO looking as if it's going to go pretty negative but do we really nead the -3s, -4s, -5s to shift that blinking HP, NAO looking not so good anyway .

Hope GP is right, the strat warming should max out around 20th Jan, BUT don't we have to wait a minimum of 2/3 weeks before this is reflected in the AO/NAO?

With all the current chopping and changing it is like building sandcastles with quick sand, now you see it, now you don't donkey with a carrot.

BTW... GFS has without a doubt won the recent battle, time to put these sort of notes into my diary.

[Stuie]

The ECM in a weird way could be correct going by the GFS`s jet stream output at T192.

GFS stream (24th) - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=5

The ECM makes a jolt south from T168, is this due to the stream?

[Summer Sun]

ECM at 216h keeps the cold air over the UK and sends the low pressure south west

Edited January 16, 2012 by Gavin D

[SMU]

well 1 more from ME we seem to be in the exact same position as we was with the GFS the other day- every model saying one thing & one supporting something TOTALLY different - now the ECM has done the same-

We will see what happens soon enough but if the 00's update like the ECMS 12z somehow out of nowhere we have pulled an azores high out of the hat & thats another 9/10 days of winter fried with only 5 left post that..

I hope its wrong- its also a way away from the UKMO!

S

Edited January 16, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

Still plenty of opportunity for snow on the ECM uppers are around -4c and ground temps 2 / 3c would be good for high ground in the north. A bit if IMBY ism from me as I'll be at the top of Cairngorm those who are gagging for snow should drive or take a train to higher ground in the north

[danm]

ECM at 216h keeps the cold air over the UK and sends the low pressure south west

Really? The cold air is north of the UK on that chart.

[mountain shadow]

ECM looks stormy at 192h

Little sign of a warming troposphere on that chart either.

Nothing to be disapointed about though as bar a couple of runs there has been very little concrete output to bring bitter cold our direction.

[Harsh Climate]

Unless this latest ECM is a mild outliar, it just about sums up the models latest performance.. > DIRE

[Matty M]

Although not shown on the ECM OP, the overall pattern would enhance the chances of potentially cold in the long

run and at least not leave us in a desperate middle ground and seemingly endless pattern of high pressure just to our south.

[Summer Sun]

ECM at 240 has a deep low right over the UK

[Harsh Climate]

Little sign of a warming troposphere on that chart either.

Nothing to be disapointed about though as bar a couple of runs there has been very little concrete output to bring bitter cold our direction.

Yes a very good chart if you like cold rain, while the mountains of scotland get battered