Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan

[Matty M]

UKM shows a brief cold incursion with a shortwave moving across southern Greenland at T144, cold in the southeast with some snow showers and cold throughout central western Europe and France.

Edited January 15, 2012 by Matty M

[Snowy Easterly]

Oh dear GFS in FI want's to tease us again with height building north east

[Andrew d'Alton]

All eyes to the ECM 12z now, could we get agreement for once ?

[Snowstorm1]

12z GFS FI is mouthwatering for us cold fans with a huge amount of cold from the NE ready to pounce on the UK

[SMU]

Now going back to the JMA yesterday & comparing it with tonights UKMO all we need is just a bit more Southerly component in that big jet streak at around 156 & bobs you aunt fannies your uncles- big snow event sliding South-

Not that it needs repeating- however this evolution with a diffluent jet west of greenland followed by a southerly jet streak is a real PIG to model.....

I would love to have seen a 168 UKMO tonight ( and a GFS 408)

S

[Snowy Easterly]

Yeah, no doubt it will arrive in March!

If the run went on further would we get the easterly or would it just dive into southern europe like usual ?

[fromey]

holy hell i cant keep up, are we saying the GFS has sort of come in line

ukmo ok and we r just waiting to see what the ecm shows?

i going to go and start rocking in a dark room!!!

keep the informative posts coming

fromey

[Gowon]

Nogaps looking good as well which ends with a Greenland high http://www.meteociel...apse_cartes.php

Edited January 15, 2012 by Higrade

[warrenb]

I have to say, I think the UK MET 144 chart is a cracker. Great NW/SE tilt on the jet and PV further west than ever.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.meteociel...192-21.GIF?14-0

Now going back to the JMA yesterday & comparing it with tonights UKMO all we need is just a bit more Southerly component in that big jet streak at around 156 & bobs you aunt fannies your uncles- big snow event sliding South-

Not that it needs repeating- however this evolution with a diffluent jet west of greenland followed by a southerly jet streak is a real PIG to model.....

I would love to have seen a 168 UKMO tonight ( and a GFS 408)

S

Well i m not going to try to compete with you steve but surely ukmo is a standard toppler with the orientation of the azores high and the jet running across southern GReenland? although i havent seen it on wz and meteociel i hate.

Edited January 15, 2012 by happy days

[Jason M]

The Meto chart at 144 actually doesn't look too bad to me.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17

One of the better charts i've seen for a couple of days (from an admittedly dire benchmark). I'm a bit surprised more comment hasnt been made about this. Hard to tell where we go from there, but it does have possibilities and that is a big improvement!

Jason

[Zakos]

12z GFS FI is mouthwatering for us cold fans with a huge amount of cold from the NE ready to pounce on the UK

Yes, and its not as unlikely as it would it seem being deep fi, the signs are there before the low res output starts.

Comparing the 12z to the 06z

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120115/12/174/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120115/06/180/h500slp.png

PV slightly weaker, but more importantly a much stronger Russian high.

GFS FI over recent days shows the Russian high retreating as soon as the low res output starts.

Its now becoming increasingly clear that this is not going to occur. Whether it actually makes it into Scandinavia is anyone's guess, but I think this is a realistic outcome come feb.

Note how the gfs never shows noteable height rises to the NW, but often shows them to the NE. This, at least, shows that there is a signal for a potential scandi block as we enter February

Plenty of interesting whether to be had in the medium term however, still with a possibility of snow from relatively brief cold spells.

[bobbydog]

i know its FI blah blah... but the GFS gives us a nice scandi high building from +300

just shows though, all evolutions are not out of the question...

Edited January 15, 2012 by bobbydog

[mountain shadow]

The Meto chart at 144 actually doesn't look too bad to me.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?15-17

One of the better charts i've seen for a couple of days (from an admittedly dire benchmark). I'm a bit surprised more comment hasnt been made about this. Hard to tell where we go from there, but it does have possibilities and that is a big improvement!

Jason

I'm struggling to see what is great about that chart. Renewed vortex over the pole and Greenland. Only height rises are over Kamchatka. I know Steve Murr says we pulled an easterly out a similar situation in 1986, but that shows how rare it is to get an easterly with the PV in place over Greenland.

[SMU]

UPDATED GEM

& the NOGAPS

At 168

After near identical looking like the UKMO at 144-

SYLVIAN FIX THE NOGAPS NH LINK!!!!!

S

[Snowy Easterly]

NOGAPS looks good but for some reason i can't view the northern hemisphere charts on it

[The Northern Ramper]

So after a stand off between the Ecm and the GFS which seemed to last an eternity the ECM gave up this morning and moved over to the GFS stating i give up you win.

Only for the GFS to turn around six hours later and state i was joking all along and move towards the ECM.

To be honest after accepting a flat pattern this morning there are now strong suggestions of blocking appearing and good cold potential, very confused by the models especially as we are told that the 12z GFS is the most progressive when it comes to the jet.

If the ECM sticks with its pattern from the 0z i might actually give up.

[SMU]

& it keeps coming-

CONTROL at 150

Mean at 144-

Some awsome ensembles

I will take number 3 7 or 13

S

Done sorry

Thanks Mate- Loving the NH plots on Meteociel at the mo-

Nogaps NH chart

Steve

[Jason M]

I'm struggling to see what is great about that chart. Renewed vortex over the pole and Greenland. Only height rises are over Kamchatka. I know Steve Murr says we pulled an easterly out a similar situation in 1986, but that shows how rare it is to get an easterly with the PV in place over Greenland.

Never said it was great . Its difficult to be certain from that point what comes next. The ridge could flatten out or the next low could dive SE with a pressure rise behind to the NE. My money would be on the worst case again, but its not certain and that in my book is an improvement of sorts!

[Zakos]

All eyes to the ECM this evening. If it too shows a colder a scenario, this would be very encouraging, especially now as we have cross model agreement including (finally!) the GFS

[camiscool]

when does the ecm come out?

[fromey]

when does the ecm come out?

i think starts @ 6

[Summer Sun]

Tonight is the night when GFS finally flips and joins the other models in bringing colder weather the question now is how long will this last this maybe the start of whats to come in February you never know

when does the ecm come out?

18:00 meteociel.fr updates the quickest

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php

[John Cox]

7pm, but does not show on NW until fully finished

when does the ecm come out?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Bottesford has compiled a post showing the times of all the runs of all the models....whatever that means.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/