Virtual Chase Thread 2012

[Nick F]

First time in a while i've seem a day highlighted in the 4-8 day outlook!

[Nick F]

Further to the above, Tuesday could be a fairly big day severe wise for AR, Ern OK and Sern MO:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[Paul Sherman]

Going to watch this closely tomorrow, I actually like the Northern Kansas and South Central Nebraska risk better than the Possible Upgrade to Moderate Risk across the Arklatex area. Obvious reason is the Chase terrain but I have a feeling the better set up for Tornadoes could exist in the Low Topped Supercell Set-Up further North West, have a feeling the area much further South and East might become Linear very quickly.

Chase Target at the moment would be Concordia (North Central Kansas)

Paul S

[Nick F]

Wasn't expecting the seperate risk area, but yeah would go for this area as it has the better chase terrain, plus I like the sound of the mini-supercells! Easier chasing.

A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACCOMPANYING TORNADO RISK AS WELL.

[Gorky]

I have to admit I sorta discounted that area too. Didn't think the moisture return would be robust enough and the good kinematics would go to waste. I'm still not convinced now to be honest but thinking back, I can remember a few times when 50/60 Dp/temp spreads have been enough to do the job but it's usually on higher terrain. I'm a little less optomistic overall about the threat now. Instability just doesn't seem to be there - perhaps due to cloud cover in the warm sector. There'll still be an appreciable wind threat, but the extent of the tornado threat likely won't be apparent until tomorrow morning, US time as we see whether we can get some good clearing and daytime heating in that risk area. Eyes are still on Friday here. The models seem to be very inconsistent though between either being aboslutely amazing or a just a bit meh. 12z looking good though

[Nick F]

The Nern Kansas/Sern Nebraska risk area doesn't look so great from a SPC perspective this morning, with hail the biggest threat. But, there does still look to be some good shear in place in the warm sector as the surface low moves through - so wouldn't rule out a nado or two up here.

The draw is strong for the area of AR east of Little Rock though, SPC have a 10% tornado probability atm.

[Coast]

Kansas:

Tuesday will see a chance for severe weather that could produce small hail and strong to severe thunderstorms, the National Weather Service in Topeka says. The weather service said a few strong storms may be capable of small hail through the early afternoon. A second, potentially stronger round of thunderstorms will cross the area during the late afternoon and evening, and quarter-size hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms.

There is also a small potential for tornadoes with Tuesday’s strongest storms.

Highs Tuesday will warm into the lower 60s, said AM 580 WIBW meteorologist Dave Relihan, with lows settling into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Wednesday will be sunny, breezy but mild with highs in the mid- to upper 50s.

Thursday will be mostly sunny and very warm with highs in the upper 60s, Relihan said. Under mostly cloudy skies Friday, highs will cool into the upper 40s to lower 50s. There will be a chance for areas of light rain mainly Friday morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Here is the extended seven-day forecast from the NWS:

Tuesday — Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Breezy, with a south wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. At night, showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight. Mostly cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.

Wednesday — Sunny with a high near 57. Breezy with a west wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. At night, mostly clear with a low around 33. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Thursday — Sunny with a high near 67. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. At night, partly cloudy with a low around 39.

Friday — A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. At night, partly cloudy with a low around 29.

http://cjonline.com/news/2012-02-28/weather-service-severe-weather-possible

[toggerob]

This is likely as good a place to let others know about the Firefox 1-ClickWeather add-on this is free. It can be synchronised to whatever location in the US/UK you want and i'm currently running on it with the US Doppler and Satellite enabled. Also gives locational forecast & nowcasts with additional coverage in the options.

[davelp]

This is likely as good a place to let others know about the Firefox 1-ClickWeather add-on this is free. It can be synchronised to whatever location in the US/UK you want and i'm currently running on it with the US Doppler and Satellite enabled. Also gives locational forecast & nowcasts with additional coverage in the options.

Sadly not available for Firefox 9.1

[Gorky]

Target for tonight will be Lexington, NE. Seems like we have some clearing in the area and models show some moderate cape here now with decent wind fields - enough for some low topped supes. Another area I'd consider would be central-west OK. everything East of there is going to be after dark and not worth chasing IMO. In other news, Friday still looks pretty Juicy on todays 12z! Models are still very erratic which is the only reason we didn't get a Day 4 risk.

[Paul Sherman]

Dryline looks much further West than Modelled.

Happy with North Central Kansas with what Moisture has returned, recent profiles show 63/53 in parts of Kansas.

To keep it real would move a tad further West, liking the clearing going on in Western Kansas and Cumulus Field showing it's hand at the moment. Would expect a Line of Storms to break out pretty soon.

Low looks to be crossing the Border of Colorado at present and moving into SW Nebraska.

[Paul Sherman]

MD Issued for N Central Kansas and S Central Nebraska

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0225 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282025Z - 282300Z

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON

INTO THE EVENING FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. DAMAGING

WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL

BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW OVER NW KS...WITH STRONG

PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED ON THE N BY A WARM

FRONT DRAPED W-E ACROSS SRN NEB....AND TO THE W BY A COLD FRONT

CONSOLIDATING ACROSS ERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRYLINE WAS DEVELOPING DUE TO VERY

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...FROM WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX

PANHANDLES. TO THE E...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WERE RISING THROUGH

THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F...RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AROUND

500-750 J/KG.

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER VORT CENTER OVER NERN

CO...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD WRN NEB/KS AND OVERTAKE THE

DRYLINE. AS THIS OCCURS WITH TIME...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE

RATES ALOFT...AND AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. THE

MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO SEVERITY IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH

MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S F NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND

INTO NRN KS LATER TODAY.

THAT SAID...AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD...FORCING WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION...CAPABLE OF AT LEAST DAMAGING

WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND MAY RESULT IN

SUPERCELLS...OR EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES IF LINE SEGMENTS OCCUR. THE

MARGINAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH TIME OF DAY BECOMING LATE WILL LIKELY

MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.

[DubWeatherAddict]

Lads , i cant seem to load any streams from the chase pages.

I click on the stream names and nothing happens? ... Im on a mac so dunno what the reason is for it.

ANyone have or Had similar problems? Looks like i missed a Tornado on one of the Streams

[Paul Sherman]

Working for me Ian

Watching TVN Live Stream at the moment - Good stream of the Storm West of Concordia. Although it has a very Linear Appearance, nice flat base though

[Cookie]

Was a torando Briefly on Eric treece stream

http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

[DubWeatherAddict]

Are you on a Mac Paul?

Like the stream window doesnt even pop up for me..

ye the radar looks good , the cell west of Concordia is looking nice , ye even though its linear im sure it could drop a nado breifly , nice hail in it now. What a good site for dp temp reports?

[Paul Sherman]

Dp & Surface just go to SPC

Click on MesoAnalysis

Drop down Menu shows the Temp and Dewp Profile far left!

Btw that Cell West of Concordia is not even Tornado Warned but really should be, radar looks quite nice, big Hailer though so stay SE Of it!

[Cookie]

if Confirmed it will be 1st Nebraska Tornado in February since records began!

http://content.wdtin...20643&O=2529270

Edited February 29, 2012 by cookie

[Nick F]

Looks like most the nados where in Missouri, a few in Kansas and Nebraska too, some strong ones though looking at the reports:

http://www.spc.noaa....orts/today.html

And looks like Friday still has the potential to be a big day, mostly east of the Mississippi and west of the Appalachian Mountains:

[Coast]

HUTCHINSON, Kan. (AP) – Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback declared a state of emergency late Tuesday after an apparent tornado struck Harveyville, part of a powerful storm system that pounded the state's midsection.

The declaration covers Wabaunsee County, southwest of Topeka. A news release from the governor's office said one person was critically injured and "a number of homes" and a church were damaged, and trees and power lines were down. Earlier, the National Weather Service reported brief tornado touchdowns southwest of Hutchinson. Elsewhere in central Kansas, trained spotters and law enforcement reported hail the size of golf balls and winds estimated at 70 mph Tuesday night north of Hillsboro in Marion County.

http://www.usatoday....nado/53296642/1

[nsrobins]

Upgrade for TN valley this evening - MODERATE risk with some strong tornados possible.

Rich moisture and a really impressive 60kn LLJ. Could be worth a look on the streaming later.

[nsrobins]

Really looks like a late winter slammer this evening where very modest instability (600 or so max CAPE and low EHIs) is offset by big shear values (deep SRH of 800+ on the Lexington, KY sounding for 23Z)

Log-track EF3s a definate possibility in the corridor from mid-TN up into KY.

[ItIsGee]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Are there any news streams recommended to watch any storms?

[Paul Sherman]

Tomorrow is already a SWODY2 Moderate Risk with a 45% Hatched area.

Chase terrain is pretty bad in the middle parts of the Moderate Risk with numerous forests etc, having never chased in Kentucky or Indiana am really finding it hard to pin down a chase target.

I see on the various feeds that there will be quite a lot of chasers from Oklahoma going for this one so the Streams should be decent enough tomorrow night.

Might even see the 1st High Risk of the 2012 Season.

Storms will be driven by a Cold Front and QLCS System and very fast moving.

[chionomaniac]

I always have wondered what you would do on fast moving fronts in the night when chasing. Would you always make sure that you are west of any potential activity to keep guests safe. Have you ever been woken up by tornado sirens out there?