Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[J10]

Please continue posting your thoughts.

[Frosty.]

A new thread and a new pattern emerging, the polar vortex is going to be tested severely in the next few weeks due to the moderate warming of the stratosphere finally impacting, something has to give and I think the polar vortex will split. At the very least, we can expect pressure to rise beyond day 5 or 6 with an increased risk of frosts and supressed daytime maxima but it also opens the door to potential northerly blasts or with the siberian high extending a ridge southwestwards through scandinavia as the ecm 00z shows although that could be premature, at least it's a sign of what could evolve later this month and feb could be the coldest month of the winter.

[SP1986]

This morning I see the GFS as the most potential outcome, sort of halfway house between the warming of the Strat having an impact but the PV not giving way to the extend where we might be given to a severe freeze.

So at the moment I think the GFS idea of northerly topplers and potential reloads is more convincing in my mind, as I'm not sure I'm ready to accept the ECM's rather bizarre take on things just yet.

[Frosty.]

This morning I see the GFS as the most potential outcome, sort of halfway house between the warming of the Strat having an impact but the PV not giving way to the extend where we might be given to a severe freeze.

So at the moment I think the GFS idea of northerly topplers and potential reloads is more convincing in my mind, as I'm not sure I'm ready to accept the ECM's rather bizarre take on things just yet.

You call the ecm rather bizarre but GP just thinks it's a little premature in it's evolution, hope i'm not misquoting him but I understood the idea of the ecm features in his longer range thinking, in the meantime, if we do have northerly topplers, that will be a big improvement on what we have had so far this winter as we haven't had 1 northerly blast yet!

[Duane S.]

This morning I see the GFS as the most potential outcome, sort of halfway house between the warming of the Strat having an impact but the PV not giving way to the extend where we might be given to a severe freeze.

So at the moment I think the GFS idea of northerly topplers and potential reloads is more convincing in my mind, as I'm not sure I'm ready to accept the ECM's rather bizarre take on things just yet.

I wouldn't say bizarre, progressive yes.

[Backtrack]

The GFS looks to have finally fallen in line with its ensembles. Perhaps it they heard my post last night and gave the model a kick.

After days on end of such bland, mild models, a pattern change looks very likely around mid-month with a trend to cooler weather.

Please don't mis-interpret my post, as I'm not predicting weeks on end of snow and ice.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Backtrack

[SP1986]

I haven't really seen a high behave like it does in ECM later stages before, so I do think it's a little 'bizarre', but if it picks up some support then it will be different story of course! I hope a synoptic like that does occur though because it'll be one for a bag of rarities, one of those synoptics you can save and refer back to in the future.

[sebastiaan1973]

This speaks for itselfs, def. better output from EC than GFS. Exciting times to come.

[Isolated Frost]

[TonyH]

Notable how the Fax charts for Thursday also holds off the high well too our SW, instead of bringing it into the southern UK as GFS and ECM were doing yesterday. That suggests little respite from the rain here later in the week as was looking likely just last night. GFS also with less of a high influence later in the week.

Edited January 1, 2012 by TonyH

[Polar Maritime]

Some promising sighns from the charts today if youre a cold fan.

Certainly a change mid month showing at last. But to what degree... Who knows.

Still lot's of flip flopping in the models befor things start to firm up with details over the next week to 10 days.

GFS has been hinting this change from the Zonal rutt for the last week.

ECM's also starting to show the Vortex Splitting and weakening. And getting more proggresive with it.

Some real interesting model watching now. Thank God !

Looks like our patience has paid off.

Happy New Year.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[leicsnow]

Looks like quite a rapid change to me! That could bring a swift pattern change after the 13th.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Tellow

[dixonoid]

If as the models are showing, a pattern change happens mid month, which of the models would deal with a blocked pattern best. Because last year the gfs kept on showing potent lows crossing us which went south on consecutive runs, due to the jetstream. So what point in the models will the blocking start, because the ensembles are still up and down and what model deals with this best, if any??

I am thinking about this point here, then the models will start to struggle?

Happy new year to you all!!

Edit: when I say last year, I meant 2010,lol.

Edited January 1, 2012 by dixonoid

[nick sussex]

If as the models are showing, a pattern change happens mid month, which of the models would deal with a blocked pattern best. Because last year the gfs kept on showing potent lows crossing us which went south on consecutive runs, due to the jetstream. So what point in the models will the blocking start, because the ensembles are still up and down and what model deals with this best, if any??

I am thinking about this point here, then the models will start to struggle?

Happy new year to you all!!

Generally this IMO is which models do best for certain patterns:

Zonal and northerly topplers the GFS although it can tend to overdo the cold and longevity but if theres one synoptic that can last from its lower resolution to the higher its a northerly toppler.

European blocking patterns the ECM within 168hrs.

The UKMO is a good reality checker with easterlies, especially those involving trigger shortwaves within 144hrs..

The key for easterlies is that the UKMO backs the ECM, in this situation the GFS nearly always backtracks to the Euros.

If you get a ECM/GFS combo backing an easterly and the UKMO doesn't then start worrying!

Although we've seen the ECM go a bit awol in its post 168hrs timeframe with trying to bring blocking in too fast, if it holds that to within 168hrs then generally its on the right track.

Model volatility often increases if they're picking up on a pattern change and easterlies are often the ones that cause most problems.

[Weather Boy]

I haven't really seen a high behave like it does in ECM later stages before, so I do think it's a little 'bizarre', but if it picks up some support then it will be different story of course! I hope a synoptic like that does occur though because it'll be one for a bag of rarities, one of those synoptics you can save and refer back to in the future.

Hi SP, why do you say that? My interpretation of the ECM is that it's saying that the last low just loses its potency and drifts off east to NE Europe allowing the High to ridge NE into the UK. What's so strange about that? (I assume we're talking about the same High!)

[weatherguy]

Wow, due to new year shenanigans I haven't managed to look at the models for a couple of days and wow is all I can say...What a different picture in such a small space of time :blink:

[nick sussex]

The ECM evolution is perfectly plausible but doesn't have much support especially from the other models and for the timebeing is unlikely to verify.

I think we need to separate what looks unlikely and what looks bizarre, theres nothing bizarre about the ECM but it would go down in one of my complicated ways to an easterly.

This is always the problem with easterlies, the UK is often at the last station for cold and to get the cold to back far enough west is difficult. If you look at the ECM for 168hrs you really need the jet cutting back towards the Low Countries and not into se Europe, the further west that jet energy drops south the better chance of picking up the easterly.

For this reason although the ECM looks interesting it's still not great, I think you'd need to see a lot more retrogression of the pattern for that to deliver, at the moment the UKMO have disregarded the ECM operational output judging by their 6-10 day outlook.

We'll just have to see this evening, if the ECM is on to something then the others would follow quickly given the timeframes.

[Stormyking]

Some Interesting charts today, especially the ECM, with a possible Easterly showing. Not much support from the others but I wouldnt rule ECM out but there is definatly a pattern change starting emerge. I think all we need is a little patience

[Summer Sun]

Well this time last week the models delivered a christmas present for the coldies and New Years day is a happy one as well, it does look like we will have a spell of colder weather later this week for a short time and then a spell of high pressure dominated weather looks likely from the 8th to 12th but its from the 13th ish when it becomes interesting for those after some seasonal weather

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3002.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3242.png - This charts brings this.......

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3482.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3722.png

Changes are a foot as per GP's thought's its just a matter of time now untill we see more and more runs like those above from GFS at first then ECM.

Happy New Year all.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Gavin D

[bluearmy]

Well this time last week the models delivered a christmas present for the coldies

What was that gav? I dont recall anything of any solidity arond xmas and the models still don't really show anything that can be constituted as an xmas pressie for collides as the promise is all beyond the reliable. An IOU maybe but a pressie...............................

[kumquat]

Alas, not looking great for the South West of England (as per usual) but it does look like GP has hit the nail directly BANG on the head. Mid January looks ripe for pattern change and the models are finally starting to show some consistency in showing it.

Heights allowed to build north as the West-East express train PFJ takes a sabbatical.

Edited January 1, 2012 by kumquat

[Harsh Climate]

Gfs 12z 156h:

WAA heading up into greenland and our atlantic block further north. I think the rest of this run could be quite good and so far an improvement on the 06z

180h

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

I think there will be an easterly down the line into europe and possibly southern england. Certainly heading in the right direction!

Edited January 1, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Cloud 10]

It seems the gfs is following the new script written by the ecm 00z!

ecm> gfs12z>

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

An interesting run from the 12z GFS upto the point of the lower resolution part of the run. Just a quick question and I mean nothing by this but Brian Glaze over on TWO mentioned possible lack of data due to less trans atlantic flights etc. Is this correct? Thanks GSL

[JP1972]

An interesting run from the 12z GFS upto the point of the lower resolution part of the run. Just a quick question and I mean nothing by this but Brian Glaze over on TWO mentioned possible lack of data due to less trans atlantic flights etc. Is this correct? Thanks GSL

In a word, 'no'