Annual CET

[Sunny76]

The cold snowy weather of February and March feels like a distant memory now, with all this hot weather.

[summer blizzard]

With July seeing a CET value more than 2C warmer than 2017 the rolling CET has risen to 10.36C and will rise further against last August. 

[summer blizzard]

Rolling Annual CET is running at 10.58C to the end of August.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling annual CET rose to 10.63C to the end of September.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling annual CET fell to 10.58C to the end of October. 

Edited November 9, 2019 by summer blizzard

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

.

Edited November 9, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Summer Sun]

Overall CET for 2019 was 10.34c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[kold weather]

A 'warm' year compared to long term average, but not that impressive compared to some years in the 10s such as 2018, 2014, etc.

Got to think some point soon we will get a year that will average 11c, we came relatively close in 2006 and 2014 (indeed 2006/2007 did have a period above 11c).

This year seems to have been more comprised of reasonably short bursts of relatively extreme heat (Feb, July, end of August, even late December warmth in Scotland) rather than the sustained periods we have seen in some previous years.

Edited January 1, 2020 by kold weather

[North-Easterly Blast]

2019 has an annual CET identical to 1998; it also has some similarities to that year as well, with Februarys in both years being very similar, and a similar June and November in both years, with October and December not dissimilar either.  The summer of 1998 overall was much cooler than 2019 though.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling Cet rose to 10.51C to the end of January.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET fell to 10.48C to the end of February.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET fell to 10.39C to the end of March (warmest Q1 since 2014).

Rolling CET will face a harder challenge from here, April-November saw all months within 0.7C of average.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET rose to 10.5C.

[virtualsphere]

Annual (rather than rolling) CET must be close to the top at this stage? Could be a record breaking year if the rest of 2020 returns moderately above average, given we seem less likely in recent times to return significantly below average periods in summer / autumn than in winter / spring?

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Annual (rather than rolling) CET must be close to the top at this stage? Could be a record breaking year if the rest of 2020 returns moderately above average, given we seem less likely in recent times to return significantly below average periods in summer / autumn than in winter / spring?

2007 had a cumulative anomaly of more than 7C over the Jan-April period however it looks to me as if we are in second since 2000 at least, narrowly ahead of 2014 and a little ahead of 2002. To maintain our lead over 2014 May needs to be 12.2C or above, to catch 2007 we would need a May CET exceeding 13C.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I wouldn't rule out 2014 being beaten as that year had a pretty cold august and a near average December.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

I wouldn't rule out 2014 being beaten as that year had a pretty cold august and a near average December.

July, September, October and November were all 1C or more above the 1981-2010 average however.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling annual CET has increased to 10.61C.

With a 12.5C finish in May we did stay ahead of 2014 but did not catch 2007. Both 2007 and 2014 had a June CET of 15.1C so that's our mark not to lose ground to this stage. 

[SqueakheartLW]

January    6.4    +2.6                         February  6.3     +2.5                      March       6.7    +1.0

April         10.4   +2.5                         May          12.5   +1.3                     June         14.6   +0.6 provisional, to the 21st

Averages so far this year:-    Average CET to May: 8.46    Normal CET to May: 6.46    Anomaly to May: +2.00

Provisional CET anomaly (up to 21st June): +1.82

Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:-

The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.95, which is 1.44 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 1.10 for the remainder of this year

The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.86, which is -2.65 lower than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be lower than -6.66 for the remainder of this year

So far the provisional annual anomaly places us well on course to smash 2014's record of 10.95C. If we remain at +1.82C above then the final annual CET will be a new record high of 11.33C

With how variable and extreme things can be these days it could still be possible but extremely unlikely that the lowest CET of 6.86 could still fall but that would need an ice age to start right now with needing temperatures to fall to at least -6.66 below average for the rest of the year.

[summer blizzard]

We will be in second behind 2007 at months end but afterwards 2014 had quite a warm July and 2007 drops away, 2006 also took its steroids now.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

We will be in second behind 2007 at months end but afterwards 2014 had quite a warm July and 2007 drops away, 2006 also took its steroids now.

Indeed, could yet do a 2017 or 1846 and fizzle out in the second half of the year. Let's see how we're doing end of August.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET rose to 10.70C to the end of June.

CET for H1 was indeed the second warmest on record, 0.6C behind 2007 while 0.6C ahead of 2014. Notable years in play during July were 2017, 2014 and the climb of 2006 which are all likely to gain on us this month. We can briefly take number 1 spot in July if we get a CET of 17.2C which seems unlikely otherwise we will be jumped by 2014 (17.7C) and possibly if we score below 16C (possible) even 2017 briefly however 2014 had a cool August and 2006 had a slightly cool one so we may have a crack at first place for a month.

We had the warmest Q2 since 2018. 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET fell to 10.55C. 

[summer blizzard]

Doing some quick maths unless I'm ignoring a year then we need 15.8C to jump 2007, 16.3C to jump 2017 and 16.5C to jump 2014 for August so there's a decent chance of a brief first place.

[summer blizzard]

Rolling CET rose to 10.60.

 

As alluded to we did drop 2007 and 2017 in August and overtook 2014 however it turns out that 1990 is cumulatively the hottest year from Jan-August, we now rank second.

90.9 2020

87.9 2018

89.3 2017

89.6 2014

85.2 2011

88.8 2007

85.5 2006

88.6 2002

88.2 1999

91.2 1990

87.0 1949

 

In terms of September we can expect 2018, 2017, 2007 and 1990 to drop away as they were all relatively cool. Without a 15C September we can expect 2014, 2011, 2006, 1999 and 1949 to be arguing for the lead to end September.