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  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    If March comes in at 2.8C (which is my best estimate at the moment), the rolling annual CET will be 9.03C

    Statisitically we are up against a cool April 2012 (arguably when all this northern blocking and southern position of jet phase that we are in started this time last year almost to the day), but I still fancy April 2013 will start colder than April 2012.

    We could go sub 9C in running by April 3rd if the first 3 days average less 3C.

    Similarly a first week of 4.4C would get us sub 9C.

    To get down to a CET in running of 8.85C (which would be a 26 year low), we'd need afirst 2 weeks of April to come in at a rather improbable 2.2C. If the cold pattern persists however another bite of that cherry towards the end of May, if not before.

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    Interesting to note that if we had a year where each day we equaled the record high for the daily mean, we'd have an annual CET of 16.5C, similar to Naples, Italy. Conversely, if we equaled the reco

    Here are the years and the number of days that a daily sub-zero CET mean was recorded 2013: 10 thus far 2012: 13 2011: 2 2010: 32 2009: 14 2008: 2 2007: 5 2006: 4 2005: 2 2004: 0 2003: 7

    I thought some might find this interesting. It's a comparison of the daily mean cold and warm records over time. A clear switch from record cold dominant to record warm dominant during the early 190

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    We are only a quarter away through the year and we already up to 45 provisionally for 2013

    Number of days where the CET minimum was 0C or less since 1878

    1878: 55

    1879: 90

    1880: 55

    1881: 64

    1882: 21

    1883: 42

    1884: 22

    1885: 53

    1886: 70

    1887: 83

    1888: 80

    1889: 54

    1890: 64

    1891: 73

    1892: 79

    1893: 41

    1894: 30

    1895: 75

    1896: 41

    1897: 28

    1898: 31

    1899: 52

    1900: 37

    1901: 61

    1902: 43

    1903: 29

    1904: 48

    1905: 38

    1906: 47

    1907: 42

    1908: 44

    1909: 74

    1910: 42

    1911: 29

    1912: 26

    1913: 23

    1914: 36

    1915: 48

    1916: 53

    1917: 90

    1918: 33

    1919: 63

    1920: 28

    1921: 28

    1922: 43

    1923: 41

    1924: 53

    1925: 48

    1926: 27

    1927: 39

    1928: 29

    1929: 71

    1930: 38

    1931: 57

    1932: 40

    1933: 63

    1934: 44

    1935: 39

    1936: 50

    1937: 46

    1938: 22

    1939: 26

    1940: 66

    1941: 59

    1942: 63

    1943: 38

    1944: 43

    1945: 40

    1946: 54

    1947: 73

    1948: 32

    1949: 30

    1950: 56

    1951: 35

    1952: 65

    1953: 40

    1954: 35

    1955: 73

    1956: 62

    1957: 27

    1958: 52

    1959: 39

    1960: 40

    1961: 32

    1962: 61

    1963: 78

    1964: 51

    1965: 55

    1966: 28

    1967: 33

    1968: 57

    1969: 65

    1970: 57

    1971: 31

    1972: 27

    1973: 45

    1974: 11

    1975: 33

    1976: 51

    1977: 35

    1978: 50

    1979: 70

    1980: 37

    1981: 54

    1982: 36

    1983: 39

    1984: 36

    1985: 61

    1986: 48

    1987: 60

    1988: 26

    1989: 25

    1990: 24

    1991: 50

    1992: 39

    1993: 35

    1994: 24

    1995: 44

    1996: 64

    1997: 34

    1998: 26

    1999: 23

    2000: 21

    2001: 55

    2002: 14

    2003: 55

    2004: 36

    2005: 41

    2006: 34

    2007: 31

    2008: 40

    2009: 45

    2010: 78

    2011: 24

    2012: 38

    2013: 45 up to 30th March

    That list but only those years with 45 or greater

    Number of days where the CET minimum was 0C or less since 1878

    1878: 55

    1879: 90

    1880: 55

    1881: 64

    1885: 53

    1886: 70

    1887: 83

    1888: 80

    1889: 54

    1890: 64

    1891: 73

    1892: 79

    1895: 75

    1899: 52

    1901: 61

    1904: 48

    1906: 47

    1909: 74

    1915: 48

    1916: 53

    1917: 90

    1919: 63

    1924: 53

    1925: 48

    1929: 71

    1931: 57

    1933: 63

    1936: 50

    1937: 46

    1940: 66

    1941: 59

    1942: 63

    1946: 54

    1947: 73

    1950: 56

    1952: 65

    1955: 73

    1956: 62

    1958: 52

    1962: 61

    1963: 78

    1964: 51

    1965: 55

    1968: 57

    1969: 65

    1970: 57

    1973: 45

    1976: 51

    1978: 50

    1979: 70

    1981: 54

    1985: 61

    1986: 48

    1987: 60

    1991: 50

    1996: 64

    2001: 55

    2003: 55

    2009: 45

    2010: 78

    2013: 45 up to 30th March

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    2010 matching 1963, impressive. There is a chance we could get to about 55 or even higher by May. It would stand us in good stead for a cold November-December period to push 2013 past the 2010 value.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    What we got for the rolling CET?

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    My system keepsdropping...

    I'll try again.

    Really interesting Stu. I wonder how far it will drop in the next 10days, as even though it is looking a bit milder it will still be below last April's very high CET values?

    Midlands Ice Age.

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    Not sure what the CET was, but the 4th April saw 35cm of snowfall and daytime maxima of less than 1c down to valley level (150m) down in this part of the CET zone. It never really properly warmed up again until mid May so the CET will be hard pushed to maintain the rolling average at less than 9c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Not sure what the CET was, but the 4th April saw 35cm of snowfall and daytime maxima of less than 1c down to valley level (150m) down in this part of the CET zone. It never really properly warmed up again until mid May so the CET will be hard pushed to maintain the rolling average at less than 9c.

    you are right, most of April 2012 and the first part of May 2012 was very much on the cool side.

    I'm guessing that we might get down to about 9.95C before rising again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    you are right, most of April 2012 and the first part of May 2012 was very much on the cool side.

    I'm guessing that we might get down to about 9.95C before rising again.

    Stu,

    Stand corrected about last years April CET.

    But shouldn't it be 8.95C.

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Stu,

    Stand corrected about last years April CET.

    But shouldn't it be 8.95C.

    MIA

    Yes - you are absolutely right.

    Looks like the warmer weather seems to be getting shunted back again on this mornings models so still worth looking out to see if we can beat the 8.86C in December 2010.

    The 4th-6th was pretty cold in 2012, so not much chance there of getting it to fall. the period from the 7th-12th April 2012, averaged about 8C - I think we might see lower values this year if the cold hangs about as most people seem to be dreading now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Yes - you are absolutely right.

    Looks like the warmer weather seems to be getting shunted back again on this mornings models so still worth looking out to see if we can beat the 8.86C in December 2010.

    The 4th-6th was pretty cold in 2012, so not much chance there of getting it to fall. the period from the 7th-12th April 2012, averaged about 8C - I think we might see lower values this year if the cold hangs about as most people seem to be dreading now!

    Stu,

    Just looked back at the last 12 months CET on NET2's Global Warming charts. (PS Isn't that Kevi B on here?)

    Its very interesting.

    According to his charts (I think he uses 1971- 2000 period) we havn't had 1 month substantiiously above the CET mean since March last year. So what has happened to our weather? I cannot see another such occurence in his charts for a long time if ever

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Stu,

    Just looked back at the last 12 months CET on NET2's Global Warming charts. (PS Isn't that Kevi B on here?)

    Its very interesting.

    According to his charts (I think he uses 1971- 2000 period) we havn't had 1 month substantiiously above the CET mean since March last year. So what has happened to our weather? I cannot see another such occurence in his charts for a long time if ever

    MIA

    Checking back again...

    Perhaps its not that rare.

    If I go back to 1999, 2002 and 2006 there were 3 instances of the CET being average or WARMER for 12 months or more,

    Perhaps the weather is just rebalancing that anomaly.

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Yes - you are absolutely right.

    Looks like the warmer weather seems to be getting shunted back again on this mornings models so still worth looking out to see if we can beat the 8.86C in December 2010.

    The 4th-6th was pretty cold in 2012, so not much chance there of getting it to fall. the period from the 7th-12th April 2012, averaged about 8C - I think we might see lower values this year if the cold hangs about as most people seem to be dreading now!

    It shows that 2010 wasn't a fluke or one-off. We have achieved another sub 9C annual CET period and within 3 years of the last occasion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It shows that 2010 wasn't a fluke or one-off. We have achieved another sub 9C annual CET period and within 3 years of the last occasion.

    For me it shows how unstable our weather has been recently, two very cold yearly periods and in the middle one of the warmest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    We are only a quarter away through the year and we already up to 45 provisionally for 2013

    Number of days where the CET minimum was 0C or less since 1878

    1878: 55

    1879: 90

    1880: 55

    1881: 64

    1882: 21

    1883: 42

    1884: 22

    1885: 53

    1886: 70

    1887: 83

    1888: 80

    1889: 54

    1890: 64

    1891: 73

    1892: 79

    1893: 41

    1894: 30

    1895: 75

    1896: 41

    1897: 28

    1898: 31

    1899: 52

    1900: 37

    1901: 61

    1902: 43

    1903: 29

    1904: 48

    1905: 38

    1906: 47

    1907: 42

    1908: 44

    1909: 74

    1910: 42

    1911: 29

    1912: 26

    1913: 23

    1914: 36

    1915: 48

    1916: 53

    1917: 90

    1918: 33

    1919: 63

    1920: 28

    1921: 28

    1922: 43

    1923: 41

    1924: 53

    1925: 48

    1926: 27

    1927: 39

    1928: 29

    1929: 71

    1930: 38

    1931: 57

    1932: 40

    1933: 63

    1934: 44

    1935: 39

    1936: 50

    1937: 46

    1938: 22

    1939: 26

    1940: 66

    1941: 59

    1942: 63

    1943: 38

    1944: 43

    1945: 40

    1946: 54

    1947: 73

    1948: 32

    1949: 30

    1950: 56

    1951: 35

    1952: 65

    1953: 40

    1954: 35

    1955: 73

    1956: 62

    1957: 27

    1958: 52

    1959: 39

    1960: 40

    1961: 32

    1962: 61

    1963: 78

    1964: 51

    1965: 55

    1966: 28

    1967: 33

    1968: 57

    1969: 65

    1970: 57

    1971: 31

    1972: 27

    1973: 45

    1974: 11

    1975: 33

    1976: 51

    1977: 35

    1978: 50

    1979: 70

    1980: 37

    1981: 54

    1982: 36

    1983: 39

    1984: 36

    1985: 61

    1986: 48

    1987: 60

    1988: 26

    1989: 25

    1990: 24

    1991: 50

    1992: 39

    1993: 35

    1994: 24

    1995: 44

    1996: 64

    1997: 34

    1998: 26

    1999: 23

    2000: 21

    2001: 55

    2002: 14

    2003: 55

    2004: 36

    2005: 41

    2006: 34

    2007: 31

    2008: 40

    2009: 45

    2010: 78

    2011: 24

    2012: 38

    2013: 45 up to 30th March

    What are we up to now Weather-History? I would guess 53 which if correct my guess of 55 by May is looking conservative.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    That list but only those years with 53 or greater

    Number of days where the CET minimum was 0C or less since 1878

    1878: 55

    1879: 90

    1880: 55

    1881: 64

    1885: 53

    1886: 70

    1887: 83

    1888: 80

    1889: 54

    1890: 64

    1891: 73

    1892: 79

    1895: 75

    1901: 61

    1909: 74

    1916: 53

    1917: 90

    1919: 63

    1924: 53

    1929: 71

    1931: 57

    1933: 63

    1940: 66

    1941: 59

    1942: 63

    1946: 54

    1947: 73

    1950: 56

    1952: 65

    1955: 73

    1956: 62

    1962: 61

    1963: 78

    1965: 55

    1968: 57

    1969: 65

    1970: 57

    1979: 70

    1981: 54

    1985: 61

    1987: 60

    1996: 64

    2001: 55

    2003: 55

    2010: 78

    2013: 53 up to 7th April

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    CET 07.04.12-06.04.13

    8.97C

    Further small drops likely this week (toward 8.9C) before we get a sharp rise next weekend (according to forecasts!) probably back towards 9C

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    CET 10/04/12-09/04/13 - 8.94C

    I would say that is it now for the drops - another chance in the second half of may to go below this.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    CET 18/04/12-17/04/13 - 9.02C

     

    Back over 9C in running.

     

    Looking at the immediate future there doesn't appear to be anything too extreme - this will compare against a fairly unspectacular cool period last year that went on until the final 3rd of May.

     

    Likely to stay close to the current figure (perhaps nudging upwards slightly). If we fail to get much real heat between now and the final third of May, there is a chance that sub 9C might be achieved again sometime during the period 22/05 to 09/06

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Any ideas what is the longest period, the rolling annual CET was under 10.0C since 1990? When I mean longest period, I am referring to from the point in the calendar it first went under 10.0C to the the next occasion it went above 10.0C

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Any ideas what is the longest period, the rolling annual CET was under 10.0C since 1990? When I mean longest period, I am referring to from the point in the calendar it first went under 10.0C to the the next occasion it went above 10.0C

     

    I reckon it is Jan 2010 to Oct 2011.

     

    The longest period over 10C is Feb 2001 to November 2008 (although it may have dipped below 10C mid month in one of the spring months of 2006).

     

    The highest annual CET in running at month end is 11.63C on 30th April 2007.

     

    The lowest annual CET in running at month end is 8.95C on 31st December 2010.

     

    The CET in running fell from above 10C to below 9C between November 2012 and early April 2013.

    Edited by Stu_London
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    I don't think we have had such a sustained cool period for a longtime

    These are the months that were at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average in the last 12 months, that's 7. In 2010, it was 6.

    Mar 2013: 2.7

    Feb 2013: 3.2

    Oct 2012: 9.7

    Sep 2012: 13.0

    Jul 2012: 15.5

    Jun 2012: 13.5

    Apr 2012: 7.2

    Further to that they were no particularly warm months within that period with August being the only one that was at least 0.5C above the 1961-90 average. In 2010, April, June and July were at least 0.5C above the 1961-90 average.

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    I don't think we have had such a sustained cool period for a longtime These are the months that were at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average in the last 12 months, that's 8. In 2010, it was 6. Mar 2013: 2.7 Feb 2013: 3.2 Jan 2013: 3.5 Oct 2012: 9.7 Sep 2012: 13.0Jul 2012: 15.5 Jun 2012: 13.5Apr 2012: 7.2 Further to that they were no particularly warm months within that period with August being the only one that was at least 0.5C above the 1961-90 average. In 2010, April, June and July were at least 0.5C above the 1961-90 average.

    Should January be on the list? I though that was just 0.3C below.
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