Annual CET

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the 365 day rolling CET since 2006.

 

 

The latest value is 10.3C up to June 30th.

[Weather-history]

Here's the 365 day rolling CET since 2006.

 

 

The latest value is 10.3C up to June 30th.

Looks like it has gone sub 10C

[summer blizzard]

Both October and November 2014 were over 1C above average. Decent chance of rolling gains.

[Weather-history]

The CET seems to be on the downward side of the roller coaster.

Edited October 2, 2015 by Weather-history

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like it has gone sub 10C

 

Just about. Latest value (provide the correction for September 25th isn't too different) is 9.97C.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Despite a pretty average year up to last month, if November finishes on say 9.3C, December only needs to be 6.1C or higher for an annual CET of 10C or greater.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Current rolling annual CET is at 10.40C to January 31st, and (provisionally) at 10.50C to February 6th, the highest value since the 27th of April last year.

While quite high, it is well off the record high rolling annual CET values of 11.67C set from the 1st to the 3rd of May 2007.

[Optimus Prime]

It's been a while so time to dig this up...

Current yearly (not rolling) CET up to October is 11.22c. If the remainder of the year were to equal;

2015

10.95c

2010

9.72

An average November/December (61-90 ref)= 10.275

So probably a similar CET to last year although probability wise maybe a little cooler. 1 in 10 chance the globe won't record it's hottest year on record.

[Summer Sun]

2016 confirmed as 10.34 making it warmer than 2015 and slightly cooler than 2014

[Summer Sun]

Final CET table for 2016

[Interitus]

On 3/10/2014 at 16:27, Interitus said:

What are the odds of a record breaking CET this year? Any cooling later in FI doesn't look enough at this stage to prevent a milder than average March so that will be a quarter of the way there. The anomaly required for the rest of the year is currently 1.17°C above 1961-90 average, though the last 9 or 10 months of the year over the last decade have averaged around +0.6.

Although the chances are against it, +1.17 months have been achieved fairly frequently over this decade in some months, spring/autumn in particular -

March 4, April 4, May 1, June 2, July 2, August 1, September 4, October 4, November 3, December 3.

 

It would be quite special if the remainder of the year is like 2006.

To paraphrase Spinal Tap "it goes up to 11".

The above was posted in March 2014 and indeed it went on to become the warmest annual CET on record. With this year now nearing the end of March ahead of target, provisionally requiring 1.39°C for the rest of the year compared to the record annual anomaly of 1.44°C, it may be time to keep an eye on this.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting to note that if we had a year where each day we equaled the record high for the daily mean, we'd have an annual CET of 16.5C, similar to Naples, Italy.
Conversely, if we equaled the record low daily mean each day we'd finish the year on about 2.0C, similar to the annual temperature of Anchorage, Alaska.

[Interitus]

7 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Interesting to note that if we had a year where each day we equaled the record high for the daily mean, we'd have an annual CET of 16.5C, similar to Naples, Italy.
Conversely, if we equaled the record low daily mean each day we'd finish the year on about 2.0C, similar to the annual temperature of Anchorage, Alaska.

When I posted something similar, bearing in mind similar maritime climates, it's like shifting the CET zone roughly a thousand miles north to northern Iceland, or a thousand miles south to central Portugal.

[Relativistic]

First 11C year ever, here we come.

[Optimus Prime]

5 hours ago, Relativistic said:

First 11C year ever, here we come.

It's a matter of time. Sooner than later.

[Interitus]

Well the 11°C year is still unlikely. 2017 is only ranked 6th warmest to the end of May and the average of the last 30 years would see a final CET of 10.48°C by monthly values or 10.50°C from the daily figures, ranking 16th in both cases.

The average of the last 10 years pushes it a little lower to 10.44°C monthly / 10.47°C daily and 18th for both.

Only a final 7 months like 2006 would achieve 11 degrees - albeit a ridiculous 11.40°C monthly / 11.43°C daily.

And only one other year would give 2017 a new record, with the June - December of 1959 if repeated achieving 10.93°C monthly / 10.96°C daily, just pipping 2014 by a tenth of a degree. At present 2017 is 0.23°C behind 2014.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Bear in mind that 2014 had a cold sub 15C August and a near average sub 6C December, it won't take much for 2017 to catch up and beat 2014 if the warmth continues to the end of the year.

[Interitus]

On 6/3/2017 at 14:20, Interitus said:

And only one other year would give 2017 a new record, with the June - December of 1959 if repeated achieving 10.93°C monthly / 10.96°C daily, just pipping 2014 by a tenth of a degree. At present 2017 is 0.23°C behind 2014.

Correction, pipping 2014 by one-hundredth of a degree!

The warm first half of June (provisional figures to 17th) has seen this year reach 5th place from the start of the year on a number of days, and the 30-year average to 2016 would see the year end at 10.55 / 10.57°C (monthly / daily values) in 8th place. Having made up some ground, 2017 is now 0.17 deg behind 2014 (currently 2nd) but quite some way off the warmest year to this point, 2007, by 0.44 degrees.

[Interitus]

After the warm June, this year had moved up to 5th place, 0.22°C behind leader 2007. The previous 30 year average (1987-2016) would see 2017 end up in 7th place with 10.61/10.63°C (monthly/daily values).

The provisional figures up to July 29th show that briefly 2017 became the warmest year on record to July 20th (though of course only a small downgrade at month end would prevent it) - this is as a result of ongoing cooler weather in 2007, and the next day sees record warm year 2014 hit top spot for the first time.

Interestingly, the previous 30 year average would see 2017 return to 1st place from 20th-23rd August before ending 0.04°C warmer on 10.65/10.67°C which in a close cluster of years means 3 places higher in 4th.

Edited July 29, 2017 by Interitus

[Weather-history]

The rolling annual CET value has taken a bit of hit the last 7 weeks.

It was 10.69 at the end of January (Feb '17 to Jan '18)  that compares with 10.58 for 2017

By the end of Feb '18, it had dropped to 10.42 

[summer blizzard]

On 3/19/2018 at 08:27, Weather-history said:

The rolling annual CET value has taken a bit of hit the last 7 weeks.

It was 10.69 at the end of January (Feb '17 to Jan '18)  that compares with 10.58 for 2017

By the end of Feb '18, it had dropped to 10.42 

If March were to finish around 5C that would see us fall to 10.1C. There's also a good chance that May and June may see us fall quite quickly too. 

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

If March were to finish around 5C that would see us fall to 10.1C. There's also a good chance that May and June may see us fall quite quickly too. 

A drop looking very likely between now and the end of June, and potentially quite a substantial one, too. There is nothing at the moment to suggest that April will be particularly warm. As for June, last year we ended up on 16C, and only once have we ever recorded two consecutive Junes of 16C or more (both the Junes of 1785 and 1786 returned CETs of 16.1C). May is more interesting; of the 25 Mays prior to 2017 that returned 13C or more, eight of them occurred in pairs (1726 & 1727, 1808 & 1809, 1833 & 1834, and 1918 & 1919). Perhaps you could argue that we're "due" another one of these pairs, but even if that did occur it's not likely to impact the rolling average too much (unless, of course, we have another May 1833!).

[Relativistic]

With March finishing at 4.9C the 12-month rolling average is now down to 10.1C.

[summer blizzard]

Despite having the opportunity to drop below 10C due to last years warmth we have either matched or beaten it in Q2 so the rolling CET is 10.15 as we enter the difficult half of the year given that 2017 was relatively close to normal with the below departures.

July: 16.8 (+0.1)

August: 15.6 (-0.8)

September: 13.5 (-0.5)

October: 12.4 (+1.7)

November: 6.8 (-0.3)

December: 4.8 (+0.2)

..

Also of the note is the fact that we are very likely to set a May-July record this year. 

[Relativistic]

On 22/03/2018 at 14:37, Relativistic said:

A drop looking very likely between now and the end of June, and potentially quite a substantial one, too. There is nothing at the moment to suggest that April will be particularly warm. As for June, last year we ended up on 16C, and only once have we ever recorded two consecutive Junes of 16C or more (both the Junes of 1785 and 1786 returned CETs of 16.1C). May is more interesting; of the 25 Mays prior to 2017 that returned 13C or more, eight of them occurred in pairs (1726 & 1727, 1808 & 1809, 1833 & 1834, and 1918 & 1919). Perhaps you could argue that we're "due" another one of these pairs, but even if that did occur it's not likely to impact the rolling average too much (unless, of course, we have another May 1833!).

Couldn't have been more wrong about this. The hot spell in the middle of April dragged the CET up drastically; we then got another one of our 13C+ May pairs which was subsequently followed up by only the second pair of consecutive 16C+ Junes.

Edited July 5, 2018 by Relativistic