Annual CET

[Relativistic]

It will be interesting to see what the 12 month rolling CET looks like after January, once we've passed the run of really mild months that we had from September last year into January this year. Could easily be sub 10C if th current pattern continues, with only March being a large margin above average. A lot of if's involved though.

[Stu_London]

It will be interesting to see what the 12 month rolling CET looks like after January, once we've passed the run of really mild months that we had from September last year into January this year. Could easily be sub 10C if th current pattern continues, with only March being a large margin above average. A lot of if's involved though.

Might all happen a lot sooner than that! We go sub 10C in running if October comes in less than 9.3C. I would say slightly odds on at the moment.

A cold late autumn early winter might see us pushing down towards a 9C rolling figure.

Edited October 11, 2012 by Stu_London

[Relativistic]

Might all happen a lot sooner than that! We go sub 10C in running if October comes in less than 9.3C. I would say slightly odds on at the moment.

A cold late autumn early winter might see us pushing down towards a 9C rolling figure.

Interesting. I'm guessing, were this to come off, it would be the first time since January 2010 to December 2010 that a sub 9C rolling figure would have been achieved. The last time for this to happen before 2010 must have been many years back, so to see it happen twice in a short space of time would indicate to me that perhaps the UK is entering some kind of cooling phase?

Only time will tell.

Edited October 11, 2012 by 22nov10blast

[Optimus Prime]

Last year was the second warmest year on record at 10.7c. I wouldn't necessarily bank on it being a cooler phase. But this year is likely to come in close to the 61-90 average but well below the 81-10 norm.

Edited October 11, 2012 by Optimus Prime

[reef]

Interesting. I'm guessing, were this to come off, it would be the first time since January 2010 to December 2010 that a sub 9C rolling figure would have been achieved. The last time for this to happen before 2010 must have been many years back, so to see it happen twice in a short space of time would indicate to me that perhaps the UK is entering some kind of cooling phase?

Only time will tell.

The last time before December 2010 the CET zone had a rolling 12 month average below 9C was Jul 1986 - Jun 1987 which was 8.97C. Feb 1996 - Jan 1997 was close at 9.05C.

It will be difficult to see if we're in a cooler phase, blip or trend for quite some time, perhaps a decade or more. Recent years if anything have seen large lurches from one extreme to the other. Just 2½ years before that 12 month running low point in December 2010 we saw Jun 2006 - May 2007 put in a rolling 12 month value of 11.63C.

[Stu_London]

To go sub 9C rolling this winter we will need a couple of severe (sub 2C months) at least, so not really the form pick by any stretch of the imagination. If winter is not quite as cold, but still fairly cold, then March might provide an opportunity as 2012 was exceptionally mild.

I think the rolling figure down as low as something like 8.77C on the 29th December 2010.

[summer blizzard]

Time to update..

So from April 2011 to March 2012 we have a very warm 10.76 which is perhaps the second warmest period on record.

This will drop next month.

Bear in mind that this was achieved only this spring so rather than cooling i agree with Reef that we are lurching.

Sub-9C is difficult but achievable, we would need a sub-6C November and sub 3C winter months though.

[Stu_London]

Should get a rolling annual CET of sub 10C in the next couple of weeks.

2012 being below 10C is as near as you can get to a racing certainty.

[Weather-history]

Coolest April to October CET period since 1993 by the looks of it. The coolness of that period in 1993 didn't really start until early July, so that period is bottom heavy whilst the coolness of the same period in 2012 is more evenly spread out.

[Robbie Garrett]

A visual of the latest CET to date... using MetOffice data from http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

A fairly warm first half of the year, slowly being cancelled out by the cooler year since April that we've had. I've worked it out that if we have any further drops in CET's, such as a cold November/December period we could end up near the 9.0-9.5*C CET Mark, at the very least Sub-10*C

Edited October 23, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Stu_London]

Rolling Annual CET likely to go below 10C in the first couple of days in November.

We are up against one of the mildest Nov-Jan periods ever in comparison to last year, so it will be interest to see how far we drop in that period if the cool/cold theme continues.

I would hazard a guess at something like 9.15C to 9.25C sometime in January, with a bite of the sub 9C cherry coming in March.

[Weather-history]

Coolest April to October CET period since 1993 by the looks of it. The coolness of that period in 1993 didn't really start until early July, so that period is bottom heavy whilst the coolness of the same period in 2012 is more evenly spread out.

Infact in the last 30 years, it looks as though only 1986 and 1993 returned a cooler such period.

[Mark Bayley]

The November C.E.T has apparently been confirmed at 6.8c, which gives an annual C.E.T of 10.14c (0.65) to date. For a year below the 1961-91 average we need December to be at least -2.5c below average (2.2c). If that was the case we would also be -1.09c below the 81-2010 average.

A real chance, based on the latest outlook, that this is achievable!

[Weather-history]

Coolest April to November period since 1993

[Harve]

Coolest April to November period since 1993

Not bad considering there hasn't been a single notably chilly month, rather persistent coolness.

[Stu_London]

CET for period 01-Dec-11 to 30-Nov-12 - 9.79C

December needs to be 8.5C to avoid a sub 10C year. Given the first week will be about 2C, chances of achieving this are 0.00%

[Weather-history]

CET for period 01-Dec-11 to 30-Nov-12 - 9.79C

December needs to be 8.5C to avoid a sub 10C year. Given the first week will be about 2C, chances of achieving this are 0.00%

December needs to be the mildest on record is another way putting it.

[Weather-history]

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001 split into blocks of 10

Nov 2012: 6.8 (-0.1)

Oct 2012: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2012: 13.0 (-0.6)

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)

Feb 2012: 3.8 (-0.4)

Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)

-----------------------------------

June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)

Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8]

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

---------------------------------

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

-----------------------------

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

-----------------------------------------

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Edited December 6, 2012 by Weather-history

[Relativistic]

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001 split into blocks of 10

Nov 2012: 6.8 (-0.1)

Oct 2012: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2012: 13.0 (-0.6)

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)

Feb 2012: 3.8 (-0.4)

Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)

-----------------------------------

June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)

Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8]

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

---------------------------------

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

-----------------------------

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

-----------------------------------------

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Wow, we have been doing well recently. It seems since 2008 below average months in the UK have been much more common. The Winter months, excluding last year, have done pretty well, long may it continue!

[March Blizzard]

Wow, we have been doing well recently. It seems since 2008 below average months in the UK have been much more common. The Winter months, excluding last year, have done pretty well, long may it continue!

Quite a turn around when you consider how rare below average months seemed to be just 5+ years ago. In 2010 we had 8 below average months and 2012 looks set to match it. Regardless if December 2012 comes in below, which is looking extremely likely, 2010 and 2012 alone have more below average months than 2002 thru 2007. How long would this have to continue before this "blip" becomes "trend"? Or is it already just that?

[Harve]

Quite a turn around when you consider how rare below average months seemed to be just 5+ years ago. In 2010 we had 8 below average months and 2012 looks set to match it. Regardless if December 2012 comes in below, which is looking extremely likely, 2010 and 2012 alone have more below average months than 2002 thru 2007. How long would this have to continue before this "blip" becomes "trend"? Or is it already just that?

It depends on whether this predominantly -NAO pattern of a southerly tracking jet-stream and additionally an extremely warm Arctic, that we've seen in the last 3-5 years (however even the warm 2011 had a largely -NAO, I believe) is a symptom of climate change and a genuine pattern shift - and thus potentially something here to stay - or simply a continued anomaly that will soon be eroded by the law of averages. The 1988-2008 larger teapot/hiver moderne era did have blips in itself, but given its length it was an equally convincing trend that we could still revert to. However we've already proven that very significant blips in the 'larger teapot/invierno moderno trend' can occur.

I realise this could be premature, but this is the fifth cold spell in five consecutive winters. The exceptionalness of the two 2010 freezes has meant that the cold spells of February 2009 and 2012, and probably this one, don't seem too major. However, I think they all safely trounce any cold spell between 1997 and 2008. In other words the five most severe winters for the CET zone of the last 15 years have also been the five most recent winters.

Interesting times ahead.

- and the censorship of 'hiver moderne'/'invierno moderno' is seriously annoying. Don't be put off by the 'larger teapot' or me having to revert to French and Spanish. I can't even use German because as far as I know, it's exactly the same phrase! I'm sure anyone can work out what I'm referring to.

Edited December 6, 2012 by Harve

[Relativistic]

Don't think the annual CET will end up below average now, just feel it in my gut.

[Relativistic]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

CET confirmed at 4.8C for December.

The annual CET is 9.70C.

[Relativistic]

Anyone know why February was adjusted?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean2012.html

It used to say the anomaly was at 0.0C.

[Village]

Quite a turn around when you consider how rare below average months seemed to be just 5+ years ago. In 2010 we had 8 below average months and 2012 looks set to match it. Regardless if December 2012 comes in below, which is looking extremely likely, 2010 and 2012 alone have more below average months than 2002 thru 2007. How long would this have to continue before this "blip" becomes "trend"? Or is it already just that?

IMO Its actually been worse than the official temps would indicate.

All the figures that are given out have been adjusted. Basically you are not seeing the real data. The CET figures are adjusted to take into account the effects of the Urban Heat Island (UHI effect). The rate of adjustment is contentious because a body or someone must make a decission about how much to change the data.

I personally think that the adjustment is not enough to allow for an accurate comparison of the data.

Another point to make is that instrumentation has changed over the years. Further, what data are we comparing today's CET's with? Is it the rolling thirty year average? If so then why are we comparing the data with the coldest set of data from the 1960's?

All this effects the rate of cooling which we are officially fed by the Government....or the Met Office...its the same thing.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Village