Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[West is Best]

Not sure that any of the models are very different from the GFS. The ECM and UKMO still have whopping Iberian / Bartlett high to our south and with that in place the most we can anticipate at the moment are a few north-westerly incursions with some snow for the north esp hills and sleety and blustery hail / snow showers occasionally further south.

April weather really.

[wolvesfan]

Evening all,

Hope ECM dosn't trend towards GFS on tonights run,it really is carrying our hopes at the moment as the GFS truly is dire for cold.

Many a cold winter has followed a mild spell like the one we are seeing at the moment,we do need to see a change soon though and hopefully ECM is leading the way in regards to a pattern change,it won't be the first time its been quickest off the mark.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Having viewed the 12z ensembles I wouldn't go as far as to say it was an outlier but it was one of the warmer runs with the vast majority including the control run going for lower 850's, lower presure and lower 2m temperatures. Not sure what to make of the GFS really, yesterday it was showing some lovely mid atlantic blocking and gave us all a cheer up, today its back to the zonal train. Really hope tonights 12z ECM continues where it left off this morning with continued high rises over the pole.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...incolnshire.png

Edited December 26, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[nick sussex]

The ECM at 120hrs doesn't back the GFS, some big differences especially towards the west coast of the USA and Canada with a much more amplified trough.

ECM:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

GFS:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=1

Edited December 26, 2011 by nick sussex

[IDO]

If this winter had a metaphor it would be that it reminded me of Schrodinger's cat. Although all that quantum gobbly goop says otherwise, the cat is definitely dead.

The current (GFS) output is benign and the usual rhetoric really doesn't do it justice.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe"

[sebastiaan1973]

Some more amplification in the USA at 168.

Edited December 26, 2011 by sebastiaan1973

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm looks better than gfs at 168hrs so thankfully a better run seems on the cards.

Hopefully something similar to the 0z run in FI!!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

ecm looks better than gfs at 168hrs so thankfully a better run seems on the cards.

Hopefully something similar to the 0z run in FI!!

I agree, by 168hrs the Russian high looks to be extending towards the pole. Must be a good sign, unless I am mistaken

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

[lukemc]

If this winter had a metaphor it would be that it reminded me of Schrodinger's cat. Although all that quantum gobbly goop says otherwise, the cat is definitely dead.

The current (GFS) output is benign and the usual rhetoric really doesn't do it justice.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe"

Looking at things from a quantum mechanical point of view nothing is certain - yes cold is not certain but mild is certainly not certain too!

It will be nice to see a bit more balance in your posts take it easy - I do find you seem to have a mild bias when predicting outcomes but it could be reverse psychology if you like cold weather that is. On that matter what is your preference - do you like cold weather, or are you a "mildy" like Ian Brown or Gavin D?

Who knows what the next few weeks will bring!

Good to see encouraging signs from the ECM for the cold fans though - and if the ECM is good lets hope that we get a good pub run tonight from the GFS to up the spirit on this forum a bit - at least it will help with the post Xmas anti climax LOL!

Edited December 26, 2011 by lukemc

[Summer Sun]

Slowly but surely ECM is picking up on a pattern change

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

[nick sussex]

The ECM is not as good as we would have liked but is miles better than the GFS in terms of cold potential.

Differences between the big 3 models regarding the upstream pattern in the USA with the GFS much flatter, at the moment its solution is unlikely.

Still the problem of the PV remains but at least in the more reliable timeframe we do see some positive changes in the remaining output.

[ukpaul]

As of this morning and twelve hours on,ECM splits the PV and the GFS has much more in the way of cold solutions than in its Op run (UKMO also looks interesting)

I think it pays to wait until after a range of runs at the moment, grounds things in reality much more.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM has more potential at 168h but then flattens out the pattern again in its later output.

Really need to see the Atlantic stream train running out of gas and that pv putting through the shredder!!

[J10]

It does appear that ECM is changing the pattern a little even if it is only to the cool zonal which we had for part of December, still no desperately cold weather on the horizon but signs of hope which is not there on the zonal fest of GFS.

So the realistic conclusion is could be better could be worse. Certainly not the end of winter as some would portray,

[SMU]

The ECM @240 is another pidgeon step forward, especially with the pressure patterns to the North & East. however the atlantic profile looks nasty - we need some changes there away from the flat jet-

ECM is a lot colder than of late- I think its going to be a few days where something nice does develop- although saying that most in the north & NE would take the JMA 192 chart today-

S

Edited December 26, 2011 by Steve Murr

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

It does appear that ECM is changing the pattern a little even if it is only to the cool zonal which we had for part of December, still no desperately cold weather on the horizon but signs of hope which is not there on the zonal fest of GFS.

So the realistic conclusion is could be better could be worse. Certainly not the end of winter as some would portray,

Surely you have to have a start before an end,and lets be honest,winter hasn't started yet for the vast majority.

[leicsnow]

Slowly but surely ECM is picking up on a pattern change

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM been looking good for pattern changes favouring colder weather for a few runs now, GFS improved for a couple but has now fallen back.

Anyway, nice to see you've been less biased towards mild lately.

Edited December 26, 2011 by Tellow

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The ECM @240 is another pidgeon step forward, especially with the pressure patterns to the North & East. however the atlantic profile looks nasty - we need some changes there away from the flat jet-

ECM is a lot colder than of late- I think its going to be a few days where something nice does develop- although saying that most in the north & NE would take the JMA 192 chart today-

S

Look no further than that Bloody PV Steve,its a feeding ground for the flat pattern.

Pretty much why iv'e been stalking the strat thread for weeks.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The ECM @240 is another pidgeon step forward, especially with the pressure patterns to the North & East. however the atlantic profile looks nasty - we need some changes there away from the flat jet-

ECM is a lot colder than of late- I think its going to be a few days where something nice does develop- although saying that most in the north & NE would take the JMA 192 chart today-

S

A very tasty chart that one with what looks like a pressure build over the pole too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

[J10]

Surely you have to have a start before an end,and lets be honest,winter hasn't started yet for the vast majority.

Considering the atmospheric pattern in December, it has been a bit wintry which is better than could have been feared.

I am just taking the middle ground not ramping the cold or the mild.

[shedhead]

ECM is still better than GFS, both with regard to the actual and the potential, but a proper weakening/splitting of the PV is a long way from being nailed imo. It's often said in here that more runs are needed and in this instance they most definately are. Hopefully the 18z GFS might just take a step in the right direction and round of Xmas on a positive note. Certainly been fairly mild of late.... oh blast

[Frosty.]

ECM is still better than GFS, both with regard to the actual and the potential, but a proper weakening/splitting of the PV is a long way from being nailed imo.  It's often said in here that more runs are needed and in this instance they most definately are.  Hopefully the 18z GFS might just take a step in the right direction and round of Xmas on a positive note.  Certainly been fairly mild of late.... oh blast

More runs are needed but  it's good to see the ukmo 12z is rather more amplified than the 00z and the ecm 12z has taken a pigeon step backwards from the 00z but hardly noticeable. The Gfs continues on a mild zonal rampage yet again so that's 3 poor runs today with mild weather dominating the south and very few cooler shots, so have we made progress?

Edited December 26, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Uncle_Barty]

Certainly one or two signs that a change may be in the offing.

Some caution needed before coldies start to get too interested:

> The GFS still isnt buying into what the ECM and others are showing.

> Even if things do change and we start getting some high lat blocking and a move away from the zonal picture, arctic weather is not guaranteed - the blocks may still set themselves up in the wrong positions for cold for the UK.

Lets see where we are at the weekend, and what the model output is like then. NOAA discussion later will be interesting.

[IDO]

Looking at things from a quantum mechanical point of view nothing is certain - yes cold is not certain but mild is certainly not certain too!

It will be nice to see a bit more balance in your posts take it easy - I do find you seem to have a mild bias when predicting outcomes but it could be reverse psychology if you like cold weather that is. On that matter what is your preference - do you like cold weather, or are you a "mildy" like Ian Brown or Gavin D?

Who knows what the next few weeks will bring!

Good to see encouraging signs from the ECM for the cold fans though - and if the ECM is good lets hope that we get a good pub run tonight from the GFS to up the spirit on this forum a bit - at least it will help with the post Xmas anti climax LOL!

I am akin to the neutron in an atom, though I necessarily end up as a electron, bringing balance to the protons. For the casual visitor I try to balance the pro-cold bias with the alternative, but not to the detriment of the facts; though I do add hyperbole. My Doctor says the cause was a bad experience in my early days on this forum; I was very naive, and consumed all the member's outpourings of snowmageddon and the return of the Ice Age...I don't want others to go through the turmoil I experienced.

And thank you for comparing me with the great minds of "Ian Brown or Gavin D", but I am not worthy to even live in their shadows.

Back to the models: It looks like ECM are flirting with more of a cold setup; but didn't GFS try this a few days ago and has since given it the cold shoulder . Its a shame we cannot see why one model will dismiss this outcome and the other is parading it. For some reason the ECM believes the strong Jetstream will be dampened (giving cold zonality at the worst), whereas GFS believes the mixing of the streams, one cold, one mild, will ramp up the Jetstream, and rollover anything in its path. I favour the latter as it remains the most likely, though with the addendum: that ECM could show us a way to transitional cold before the Atlantic resets.

"The essence of knowledge is, having it, to apply it; not having it, to confess your ignorance".

I confess...

[Jason T]

ECM is still better than GFS, both with regard to the actual and the potential, but a proper weakening/splitting of the PV is a long way from being nailed imo. It's often said in here that more runs are needed and in this instance they most definately are. Hopefully the 18z GFS might just take a step in the right direction and round of Xmas on a positive note. Certainly been fairly mild of late.... oh blast

Shed head, Whilst i agree with your with your initial first paragraph the splitting of the PV has been shown. The last part ,Well i would have thought Paul's post last night (XMAS DAY) Would have made a point to you. In defense to BLAST,I do not recall him calling any of this period (COLD) Only stating that we would start to see changes to output around this time scale.

More runs are needed but it's good to see the ukmo 12z is rather more amplified than the 00z and the ecm 12z has taken a pigeon step backwards from the 00z but hardly noticeable. The Gfs continues on a mild zonal rampage yet again so that's 3 poor runs today with mild weather dominating the south and very few cooler shots, so have we made progress?

Polar, Come on....The ECM showed us at 240 the PV Splitting I would rather the ECM than GFS for that viewing. Its the best sign we have had all this winter. The trigger has been pulled and the bullet is off and running.

Certainly one or two signs that a change may be in the offing.

Some caution needed before coldies start to get too interested:

> The GFS still isnt buying into what the ECM and others are showing.

> Even if things do change and we start getting some high lat blocking and a move away from the zonal picture, arctic weather is not guaranteed - the blocks may still set themselves up in the wrong positions for cold for the UK.

Lets see where we are at the weekend, and what the model output is like then. NOAA discussion later will be interesting.

Indeed Lets see, 7 days or less from now WHO knows. My guess mildness and zonality will be just a MYTH, The PV champange cork is going to pop and there will be plenty of the crystal coldness to shower under.

Best Wishes To All.

SL. :smiliz19:

Edited December 26, 2011 by silver line