Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[reef]

A new thread for the final week of the year.

Please continue...

[Frosty.]

The gfs continues the mild zonal pattern for the next 16 days for southern britain  although with a few cooler blips and it's not much better for the north although  cold air will occasionally flirt with northern scotland, good growing weather at least.

Edited December 26, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Brum Watcher]

GFS seems to be on a seesaw for a few days now! It is a Mild Outlier on the ensemble charts. so the next few charts will bring a better coloured picture. 18z will be impressive i believe today. Good Old Pub run.

[Great Plum]

Sorry to repeat myself but the 06z was a clear mild outlier in FI down south

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Sorry to repeat myself but the 06z was a clear mild outlier in FI down south

http://www.netweathe...;type=ens;sess=

Yep, quite a few clusters of colder runs on there too. The latest metoffice extended forecast also reads marginally better than yesterday with colder zonality looking likely for the northern half of the UK during the last few days of December and first week of January.

[snowray]

All I can see is more Euro highs and Bartlets for the foreseable. Probable end up with the too little too late Easterly in late Feb early March and everyone will be saying, if only this had turned up a month Earlier!

Some snow for the Scottish mountains at times though as per usual.

[shedhead]

The gfs continues the mild zonal pattern for the next 16 days for southern britain although with a few cooler blips and it's not much better for the north although cold air will occasionally flirt with northern scotland, good growing weather at least.

Indeed - the latest 30 dayer from the MO is not buying into any strat warming effects at all. Their latest update suggests they expect a similar pattern to the one depicted on the 06GFS to persist, indeed they don't even hint at anything resembling a pattern change in their forecast that goes out to the 24th Jan. To my mind the next 10 days to a fortnight will be pivotal for the remainder of Winter, if we haven't seen consistent signals for blocking by the end of week one I fear we probably won't until it's too late.

Yep, quite a few clusters of colder runs on there too. The latest metoffice extended forecast also reads marginally better than yesterday with colder zonality looking likely for the northern half of the UK during the last few days of December and first week of January.

Yep, quite a few clusters of colder runs on there too. The latest metoffice extended forecast also reads marginally better than yesterday with colder zonality looking likely for the northern half of the UK during the last few days of December and first week of January.

Marginally being the operative word!

Sorry to repeat myself but the 06z was a clear mild outlier in FI down south

http://www.netweathe...;type=ens;sess=

Yes, but even so the mean still remains slightly above the 30 yr average, which is not really where we want to see it in the middle of Jan.

Edited December 26, 2011 by shedhead

[phil nw.]

Good day to you all and hopefully,like me, you all enjoyed Christmas day.

Todays runs continue with the same theme of an Atlantic setup with High pressure to the south and lows across the north and no sign of a change into the medium term-T240hrs.

Looking at the hemisphere views we can see this quite clearly on all 3 models.

UKMO at T120hrs.

ECM at T192hrs.

GFS at T240hrs.

There are always likely to be minor changes in the surface features as go through the next week or so.

Generally though the outlook is changeable as fronts move through off the Atlantic from time to time with alternating mild and colder days,very wet at times for the North West.

The GEFs graph shows that the mean temperatures are not likely to be far from average.

Although there`s a suggestion by ECM data that mean Zonal winds are forecasted to fall somewhat by day10(ie a slightly weaker vortex)there is no real evidence in current daily modelling of Arctic blocking--look for yellows in those regions on the 500hPa charts.

Edited December 26, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Dreadful.

Thats not beong melodramtic,thats an honest assesment (from a coldies view)of the models again today.

No sign of a letup in this most horrid pattern of a postive NAO.

I have ONE day of lying snow here and about 2 frosts.I cant see that being improved on this side of mid jan.

[Frosty.]

In the current situation, straw clutching increases with every dire gfs run that follows every 6 hours, don't worry it's a mild outlier in fi etc. At least the latest meto update reminds me of what we had during the first half of the month and perhaps increases the chance of hill snow in scotland and northern england above 800 feet during the next few weeks, also, the 6z run upgraded the cool/cold snap after midweek for the far northeast of the uk but what use is that for the majority of the uk?

Edited December 26, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Bobby]

Some interesting runs in the ensembles

Big greeny high!

Wouldn't mind that. FI eye candy maybe but more than what we've had recently.

Edited December 26, 2011 by Barb-

[lukemc]

Dreadful.

Thats not beong melodramtic,thats an honest assesment (from a coldies view)of the models again today.

No sign of a letup in this most horrid pattern of a postive NAO.

I have ONE day of lying snow here and about 2 frosts.I cant see that being improved on this side of mid jan.

Maybe this should be more appropriately placed in the "Moaning about winter" thread - but it has seemed this year that we have had a negative NAO thoughout almost all the summer - hence promoting poor, unsettled summer weather - but as soon as it hits Autumn and then into Winter it goes positive and seems to be stuck thier - with natural variablity I would probably expect the NAO to vary over shorter periods of time giving us more of a mixed season - was puzzles me is why does it always stay stuck in a certain state for months on end rather than just a few weeks? It is almost like the teleconnections have conspired against us getting "seasonable" weather in the right seasons this year - but not all was lost as we know that a positive NAO does not guarantee mild weather just like a negative one does not guarantee a cold weather pattern - as earlier this month prove with the cold zonality.

Anyway HD, cheer up as I am sure things are not as bad as you make them out to be - we have got the unpredictable situation of what is happening in the stratosphere and remember the GFS was one of the milder members of the ensemble suite especially in the south - and the ECM seems to be modelling a PV split. I would expect the GFS to come on board over the next few runs - although that is just my own personal opinion.

Luke

[Bobby]

More of a trend lately to have low pressure in Europe and building heights to the NE.

Quite a few ensemble peterbations look something like this

Can't help but think a change may be on the way...

[IDO]

"Two Buzz" update is now confirming many members worries: the forecast has now changed to an average winter with slightly above average temperatures. Nothing in the models in the medium term, very few forecasters predicting cold in January and a very stubborn pattern that does not want to breakdown, does lean towards a frustrating January. This winter is beginning to play like Charlotte Bronte's Jane Eyre, without the happy ending!

"In all things it is better to hope than despair".

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Maybe this should be more appropriately placed in the "Moaning about winter" thread - but it has seemed this year that we have had a negative NAO thoughout almost all the summer - hence promoting poor, unsettled summer weather - but as soon as it hits Autumn and then into Winter it goes positive and seems to be stuck thier - with natural variablity I would probably expect the NAO to vary over shorter periods of time giving us more of a mixed season - was puzzles me is why does it always stay stuck in a certain state for months on end rather than just a few weeks? It is almost like the teleconnections have conspired against us getting "seasonable" weather in the right seasons this year - but not all was lost as we know that a positive NAO does not guarantee mild weather just like a negative one does not guarantee a cold weather pattern - as earlier this month prove with the cold zonality.

Anyway HD, cheer up as I am sure things are not as bad as you make them out to be - we have got the unpredictable situation of what is happening in the stratosphere and remember the GFS was one of the milder members of the ensemble suite especially in the south - and the ECM seems to be modelling a PV split. I would expect the GFS to come on board over the next few runs - although that is just my own personal opinion.

Luke

Hi Luke well yes i suppose it is a good old fashoined moan and im sorry to say i think things are as bad as im making them out to be.

Take a look at the extnded ensembles for oslo and you will see why.

Very difficult to see anything positve apart from the AO/NAO.

[shedhead]

"Two Buzz" update is now confirming many members worries: the forecast has now changed to an average winter with slightly above average temperatures. Nothing in the models in the medium term, very few forecasters predicting cold in January and a very stubborn pattern that does not want to breakdown, does lean towards a frustrating January. This winter is beginning to play like Charlotte Bronte's Jane Eyre, without the happy ending!

"In all things it is better to hope than despair".

As I said, the next 10-14 days look pivotal, if we can get enough initial warming to at least weaken the vortex, the next one might just break it up and things could change quite dramatically. However, in truth this is starting to look a slight outsider now, with the current pattern being a tough old cookie to break. Can only see this going one of two ways now, big changes and a very different 2nd half of Winter, or something of a mild record breaker.

[Uncle_Barty]

Seeing the words "Dreadful" and "dire" crop up. Not for everyone it isn't - it's good news for those who want to go about their daily business in relative comfort and without disruption! Not everyone who reads this thread want freezing cold, disruptive and energy-bill-sapping weather...

No point in looking beyond 8 days or so until there is a solid inter-model sign of a pattern change. Until then, it is very much "as you were".

No air frosts here since early March and I am not expecting any more this year now based on the current output.

[Frosty.]

"Two Buzz" update is now confirming many members worries: the forecast has now changed to an average winter with slightly above average temperatures. N

They obviously don't have much faith in the cold clustering in the ensemble suites then, the op runs are dire but maybe the more realistic outcome will be something between absolutely awful and not bad.

[phil nw.]

Please keep to discussing the current output people.

If you wish to discuss the bad or good about the runs please link or say where this is showing.

If you just want to push a general view without data to back it up then you know there are other threads for this.

Thankyou folks.

[lukemc]

Hi Luke well yes i suppose it is a good old fashoined moan and im sorry to say i think things are as bad as im making them out to be.

Take a look at the extnded ensembles for oslo and you will see why.

Very difficult to see anything positve apart from the AO/NAO.

But remember it is known for the ensembles to flip suddenly - I remember during I think it was the February 2009 cold spell the models and ensembles were predicting the cold spell to continue but when the models started to change to a milder outlook the ensembles flipped suddenly - which could be the case IMO if we get our Stat warming event - as long as it results in blocking in the right places for us. One consolation is the fact that it is not just us in the UK that is mild ATM - as you said Oslo are way above average and even Eastern Europe is mild at the moment with very little lowland snow cover. Looking across the Atlantic to the east coast of the USA, it doesn't get much better thier either - NYC and Washington have been very mild recently too - remember this time last year NYC was about to get over a foot of snow! Talking of that is the USA eastern seaboard mild due to the same pattern that is keeping us mild as a matter of interest - i.e. the strong polar vortex and very positive NAO?

Luke

[phil nw.]

But remember it is known for the ensembles to flip suddenly - I remember during I think it was the February 2009 cold spell the models and ensembles were predicting the cold spell to continue but when the models started to change to a milder outlook the ensembles flipped suddenly - which could be the case IMO if we get our Stat warming event - as long as it results in blocking in the right places for us. One consolation is the fact that it is not just us in the UK that is mild ATM - as you said Oslo are way above average and even Eastern Europe is mild at the moment with very little lowland snow cover. Looking across the Atlantic to the east coast of the USA, it doesn't get much better thier either - NYC and Washington have been very mild recently too - remember this time last year NYC was about to get over a foot of snow! Talking of that is the USA eastern seaboard mild due to the same pattern that is keeping us mild as a matter of interest - i.e. the strong polar vortex and very positive NAO?

Luke

Yes--in answer to you last sentence Luke.

The broad westerly pattern is evident over NA too,here,

http://www.wetterzen.../Rnamavn061.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rnamavn721.png

Same setup High pressure to the south,a flat jet,preventing any colder air making inroads south from the Canadian Arctic.

http://www.wetterzen...Rnamavn1201.png

Edited December 26, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[ukpaul]

The ECM shows the PV breaking up and the GFS was a mild outlier as other ensemble members showed colder conditions.

Edited December 26, 2011 by phil n.warks.
Removed O.T.comments-if you have an issue,please use the PM system.tks.

[Frosty.]

The latest meto update is dire for cold prospects (away from northern britain and mainly on hills) and very much in line with the gfs 00z and 06z operational runs this morning, the 16-30 day update is unwavering in it's mild zonal outlook and very much suggests that high pressure will remain locked to the south of the BI for the next 4 weeks with lows continuing to brush across northern britain with the briefest of cold interludes but with either average or mild temps having the upper hand in general.

Edited December 26, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[IDO]

The ECM shows the PV breaking up and the GFS was a mild outlier as other ensemble members showed colder conditions.

"Deletion of outlier data is a controversial practice frowned on by many scientists and science instructors; while mathematical criteria provide an objective and quantitative method for data rejection, they do not make the practice more scientifically or methodologically sound, especially in small sets or where a normal distribution cannot be assumed."

Just because it is a mild outlier does not negate its value. The fact it has been favoured as the Operational Run is of more interest.

As for the "PV Breaking up"; until it does it is maybe prudent to assume status quo till this is confirmed; as such a change, in a major variable, can skew the model, and therefore your expectations.

"Reason itself is fallible, and this fallibility must find a place in our logic."

[nick sussex]

The latest meto update is dire for cold prospects (away from northern britain and mainly on hills) and very much in line with the gfs 00z and 06z operational runs this morning, the 16-30 day update is unwavering in it's mild zonal outlook and very much suggests that high pressure will remain locked to the south of the BI for the next 4 weeks with lows continuing to brush across northern britain with the briefest of cold interludes but with either average or mild temps having the upper hand in general.

I wouldn't read too much into the 16-30 day UKMO outlook, thats generally just repeated until the latest ECM 30 day output at the end of the week. They might change the language slightly but thats still using old data.

Everyone seems to have dismissed the ECM operational run and is happy to go along with the misery fest of the GFS lower resolution outputs..

The GFS 06hrs run was quite similar to the ECM until it reached the lower resolution output, after that not surprisingly it reverted to zonal mild mush.

I think we should just wait and see whether the ECM is on to something.