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Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Model output a bit frustrating for me as even though we could see another NW'ly, its once again so moderated because of how mild it is around the svalbord isles as it has been so far this Autumn/winter(apart from these last couple of days)

The ECM at 144 hours may show more Northern blocking(albeit in the wrong places) but unless its head Westwards so we can tap into the colder air into other parts of Russia like the UKMO has been hinting at for days now then any cold looks like is going to be moderated and the ECM 144 hours charts pretty much sums up what I mean really.

Of more interest, looks like the deep low set up looks more certain now and we could very much head into another severe gale spell for most of Scotland and Northern England.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

ECM is a cracking run, that lobe of PV that has been resident to our North sinks deep into Europe and the NE Pacific ridge has a much stronger signal.

From this

post-7292-0-36589400-1325357046_thumb.gi

Then roll forward 5 days

post-7292-0-77461900-1325357056_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Shaldon, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow !!!!
  • Location: Shaldon, Devon
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Not Model Discussion
Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Not Model Discussion

ECM is starting to fall into line with what GP had been saying i.e. heights falling across Europe.

If it does get much colder from mid Jan on this guy should be knighted!!

Or burnt at the stake.

Come on GP , please let your other worldy powers prove correct.

Happy new year all!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Why not?if you can find any-but not mod.disc.
Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Why not?if you can find any-but not mod.disc.

But this isn't the hunt for cold thread....this is the model discussion thread, so to be fair to Gavin, he is on topic.

True. But does that mean I can post charts of cold, snow and frost in Summer?

Perhaps we should have a Model Thread Dedicated to Snow Lovers and Coldies.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

True. But does that mean I can post charts of cold, snow and frost in Summer?

If you can find such charts, why not?!

Perhaps we should have a Model Thread Dedicated to Snow Lovers and Coldies.

I think that's pretty much what we already have.

All we're looking for, is that if someone posts or links to something, make it salient and factual, and don't do it just to provoke a reaction. Sometimes it's a bit dubious but we're not daft and can normally tell the difference.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I think the ECM is moving in the right direction in the reliable timeframe

I would hope FI is just that, the models resorting to more of the same.

I've a feeling changes to something better will come thick and fast over the next few days.

Happy New Year to you all!

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People are looking so much into Fi, they are missing out potential wintirness on monday.

The NAE is starting to come into range, and the setup is very similar to that in Mid December, which gave a few days of showers of a wintry mix, rain, hail, sleet and a little snow.

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (Rain Snow)

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (Dewpoints)

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (850Hpa)

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (Thicknesses)

So wintry showers are possible quite widely for Monday, but not really amounting to that much, IMO positive that we can that some wintriness given synoptic conditions which are hardly condusive to wintriness at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Putting aside FI there are some big differences between the ECM/UKMO/GEM against the GFS at 144hrs in terms of energy from the jet heading south into Europe, the GFS just pushes this east.

At 168hrs the ECM looks promising with high pressure to the ne forcing energy from that trough again south into Europe, unfortunately the PV though is just too far east and edges east again.

Again though just as this morning the ECM pulls out a decent 240hrs chart in terms of the NH pattern but will these charts actually make it to within 144hrs?

At the moment it seems like always jam tomorrow with the ECM, the ensemble maps tonight should be interesting in terms of that tease at 168hrs but apart from that I'm afraid it's still a waiting game for more realistic chances of cold and snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Poetic but O.T
Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Poetic but O.T

People are looking so much into Fi, they are missing out potential wintirness on monday.

The NAE is starting to come into range, and the setup is very similar to that in Mid December, which gave a few days of showers of a wintry mix, rain, hail, sleet and a little snow.

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (Rain Snow)

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (Dewpoints)

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (850Hpa)

http://expert-images...010206_3112.gif (Thicknesses)

So wintry showers are possible quite widely for Monday, but not really amounting to that much, IMO positive that we can that some wintriness given synoptic conditions which are hardly condusive to wintriness at all.

Where did our dreams go?

Nothing for the Vale of Swansea; sorry.

Scottish hilltops and mountains it echoes,

Usual January, nothing that's rare.

Gone by dawn's early light.

Some more sprinkles of stardust,

As Wednesday Low burrows its way through the event horizon.

Then, only dreams of white, as the cruel hand of winter drags us to its despair.

Forsaken, till the nightmare's end, we long for the lost;

Living in the hope of yesteryear.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Interesting weather

I'm going to try and do one of these daily posts focusing on interesting weather occurring over the next few days. The models thread is too obsessed with looking at T240 plus, completely overlooking anything interesting in the reliable time-frame.

Monday

Throughout Monday we see a brief PM incursion of -5/-6 850s

1monday850s.png2mondaysnow.png

The colder 850s promoting convection across the Irish sea. These showers falling as snow across most areas with a sleety mixture at the coast. NW Scotland should see showers merging together to bring prolonged periods of snowfall, delivering a few cm's in places. Temporary accumulations possible across NW England.

The NAE goes out to 48 hours and is currently projecting showers pushing inland across Northern England/ Western Scotland/ Northern Ireland and some across Wales/South West England at 3pm. GFS projects the peak of shower activity to be around 6PM, it will be interesting to see what the NAE shows at 6pm on the 18Z output.

Tuesday

During Tuesday we see a deepening area of low pressure (960MB) tracking just north of Scotland.

3tuesdaylow.png

The main cause for concern is the mixture of strong winds and large rainfall totals. During Tuesday morning we will see winds gusting up to

60 knots (70 MPH).

4tuesdayswindspeed.png

Heavy rainfall across Central and western parts will lead to localized flooding, particularly across Wales and North West England with 12 hour accumulations totals projected 52mm for wales and 37mm for North West England.

5ppnaccumulation.png6ppnintensity.png

There is a very high risk of disruption to travel on Tuesday morning. High winds and a very wet ground causes trees to become very unstable (when subject to strong winds.). Expect disruption to road, rail and power with trees falling across tracks and power lines etc.

Tuesday Evening

Throughout Tuesday the associated mild sector will quickly leave, followed by colder 850s. Rainfall rapidly turning to snow across the pennines (300M), leading to several cms of wet snow. This transient as the front soon clears with a risk of snow to all areas on its back edge as the cold air undercuts the front.

7850stuesdayevening.png8ppntuesdaynight.png

Through Tuesday evening we see a very similar setup to Monday, the colder 850s will promote convection across the Irish sea, any showers falling as snow away from the coast where a wintry mixture is to be expected.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

That ECM 168 chart that Nick S. mentioned earlier shows good troughing into E.Europe,

post-2026-0-92095600-1325359594_thumb.gi

but that stubborn vortex,so persistent over Greenland lately just ejects more energy east, and the High returns.This seems to be the ongoing outcome at the moment with the strong northerly jet.

post-2026-0-93863300-1325360821_thumb.pn

Maybe the ECM 168 postage stamps will show some different outcomes but at this stage the upstream pattern looks so flat in the medium term that there`s very little room for any notable ridging of the Azores High.

The GEFs thumbs at T168hrs.give little sign of anything different-just small variations of positioning the High west-east.

http://www.wetterzen...nspanel1681.gif

With the core of the Vortex to our North West and stubborn Heights just to our South West we continue with a fairly typical Westerly pattern,probably more settled later as that high builds back towards the UK.

GEFs graph show the mean very close to average for 850hPa temps.

post-2026-0-46356200-1325360428_thumb.pn

A frustratingly persistent outlook for those looking for a change.

Edited by phil n.warks.
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Agreed but O.T
Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Agreed but O.T

Where did our dreams go?

Nothing for the Vale of Swansea; sorry.

Scottish hilltops and mountains it echoes,

Usual January, nothing that's rare.

Gone by dawn's early light.

Some more sprinkles of stardust,

As Wednesday Low burrows its way through the event horizon.

Then, only dreams of white, as the cruel hand of winter drags us to its despair.

Forsaken, till the nightmare's end, we long for the lost;

Living in the hope of yesteryear.

Poetic but melodarmatic!!

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
Posted · Hidden by ForeverPomeroysnow, December 31, 2011 - No reason given
Hidden by ForeverPomeroysnow, December 31, 2011 - No reason given

Putting aside FI there are some big differences between the ECM/UKMO/GEM against the GFS at 144hrs in terms of energy from the jet heading south into Europe, the GFS just pushes this east.

At 168hrs the ECM looks promising with high pressure to the ne forcing energy from that trough again south into Europe, unfortunately the PV though is just too far east and edges east again.

Again though just as this morning the ECM pulls out a decent 240hrs chart in terms of the NH pattern but will these charts actually make it to within 144hrs?

At the moment it seems like always jam tomorrow with the ECM, the ensemble maps tonight should be interesting in terms of that tease at 168hrs but apart from that I'm afraid it's still a waiting game for more realistic chances of cold and snow.

Poetic but Melodramatic

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In reply to a deleted post, December's Westerly Polar Maritime did give some snow locally, albeit wet as a part of a wintry mix.

Going forward I would suspect that there will be more potent NW/N flows, certainly hope so.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

ECM ends with high pressure

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

looking at that chart a reload doesn't look far away. I think if the ECM went another few days further we would end up with a northerly or maybe something better. As some have said, a pattern change isn't expected untill atleast the 13/14th anyway :)

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Posted
  • Location: isle of man
  • Weather Preferences: autumn, winter, cold, sunny, snow, crisp
  • Location: isle of man

thanks to Cheese Rice for a clear (read easy to understand) look at the models for the next couple of days.

not sure i want the 70mph wind on tuesday but thanks for the mention of the irish sea convection which could cause showers over isle of man and then into northern ireland and north west england.

i have hovered on these boards for many winters and i would agree that because many of the guests are looking for cold this thread has ended up looking into FI, even in my honest opinion T144 is too far out to be accurate or reliable! also what's wrong with a HP if it brings fog or frost? dull and dreary is still weather :)

have a safe happy and healthy New Year to eveyone.

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
Posted (edited) · Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Not Model Discussion-better in winter thread
Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Not Model Discussion-better in winter thread

Have been speaking to some eminent forecasters in the states

They are confidently suggesting that we will not see a major pattern change in NW Europe until mid-feb

Northern blocking for springtime!

Edited by Jonathan Evans
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted · Hidden by legritter, December 31, 2011 - No reason given
Hidden by legritter, December 31, 2011 - No reason given

Have been speaking to some eminent forecasters in the states

They are confidently suggesting that we will not see a major pattern change in NW Europe until mid-feb

Northern blocking for springtime!

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Not Model Discussion-better in winter thread
Hidden by phil nw., December 31, 2011 - Not Model Discussion-better in winter thread

JONATHAN EVANS ,HOPE YOU TAKE THE AMERICAN FORECASTERS PREDICTION WITH A BIG PINCH OF SALT ,OR HAVE I FALLEN FOR A SMALL WIND UP ,there could indeed be a pressure change mid feb ,after perhaps 4 weeks of our change due hopefully 11/15th jan ,looking foreward to upcoming low ,all the best gang for 2012 ,looking forward to a beast from east ,plus the vortex to drop smack down the middle of uk ,cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Some GEFS members trending ever so slightly nearer 850hpa -10 mark toward end, its a painstaking process but even the op hits -10 for west yorkshire in fi as well

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

The hour is fast approaching. Many thanks to all for the awsome conjective post's. I would like to wish happy and model active new year to all. However i would like to wish a special happy new year's to.....BFTP Real top guy and an awsome forecaster(HE NEEDS TO BE PAID),JH Love your middle ground,Open mind and shear knowledge is your fortay.GP Well tried to PM but no such luck,You are right up there amongst the best,Phil.n.warks..What a forum leader and poster,Chinoooooo,Well what can i say...Keep up the awsome work.Polar Low, Winter is coming for you mate...(SHE WANTS YOU)..Then there is OON well im sure you are a nice person really, I know you get fed up with (some real dire in -ya face boring POST'S,But hey its the weather(HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU),Steve Murr....Love you man,Your mine kind of guy..(PEACE).RJS Well on the money springs to mind,Love your post's.Nick Sussex...You the man,Keep going. Yes the hour has now fast gone,,,Hate key boards they are not (predictive) to thought.Anyway happy new year guys and gal's 2012 could be the (ACTIVE THREAD). Oh i forgot IAN BROWN...YES well happy new year.

SL....JASON.

Edited by silver line
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