Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[lorenzo]

A very fine , crystal clear day - my favourite kind of Winter Weather. All that was missing was some frost / snow. That's Scotland for you the worst weather last night then brilliant today.

To save folk time , GP has a good update here. The stratosphere thread is also worth a look today, good to see BrickFielder posting in there, his posts give good clarity with great knowledge. Chionos latest update is here. The Vortex is under healthy attack..

Much change coming up in the NH profiles as this pattern continues it's slow evolution to cold....

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-300.png?12

That is one heck of a control run - the PV getting shunted south into the atlantic! There seems to once again be a consensus forming around the longer term evolution, which is perhaps not in the short term the best for us but in the longer term the prospects are intriguing - if the control run verified we would have a spell of 84-esque cold zonality, and in the longer term the arctic high could still end up ridging to bring us a Greenland or Scandinavian high.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://176.31.229.22...-0-1-300.png?12

That is one heck of a control run - the PV getting shunted south into the atlantic! There seems to once again be a consensus forming around the longer term evolution, which is perhaps not in the short term the best for us but in the longer term the prospects are intriguing - if the control run verified we would have a spell of 84-esque cold zonality, and in the longer term the arctic high could still end up ridging to bring us a Greenland or Scandinavian high.

Sounds great! What would happen if the PV ended up over the uk?

[blitzen]

Oh good LS, I think I 'fell off the wagon' in my last post. Don't really understand warmings and such like or the consequences!

[over_the_rainbow]

Thanks to LomondSnowstorm, Lorenzo and A Winter's Tale for the posts above - it clarifies the current picture for me. I agree with Hairy Celt that you guys present it clearly and at least on this thread you don't have to wade through the emotional peaks and troughs of dallas on the MT thread. I do understand why people are so exasperated as the 'goodies' keep staying just on the edge of FI, but I guess this will just be a slow transitional change for us.

Happy Birthday to BleakMidwinter - hope you are having a good day!

And what a treat to see the sun today! Sunny, but brisk in the wind - lovely!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sounds great! What would happen if the PV ended up over the uk?

This http://176.31.229.22...-12-21-12-0.png

Unfortunately, it looks more like ending up to our west, which isn't necessarily the best, but there's still the odd ramp-worthy chart to post http://176.31.229.22...84-1-16-0-0.png

Another positive of that kind of setup is that Scotland would inevitably hog almost all of the snow, once again. Realistically, although the GFS has jumped on this today, there's a good chance that, even if the ECM decide it likes that solution too, it will all just flip to something else tomorrow. There are still a few members of the ensemble suite backing the mid Atlantic ridge and associated northerly, so I still wouldn't rule that out by any means.

Edited January 5, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Ruzzi]

Just seen Salsburgh on the STV news as they still had no power up until noon today. I'm literally 5 mins away from Salsburgh and they recorded a 97mph gust yesterday morning so I dare say that the winds we experienced yesterday morning were the worst (strongest) since the boxing day storm (1998 I think) It's just a Pity that I woke up at noon yesterday after all the excitement had passed.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just found this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/december-and-annual-statistics

Scotland mean 3C so overall a touch below average here.

[A Winter's Tale]

Just found this: http://www.metoffice...nual-statistics

Scotland mean 3C so overall a touch below average here.

I think it ended up exactly on average due to the mild conditions on New Years Eve. Still, not bad for what's supposed to be the mildest month of the winter! LS- your forecast for December seemed very accurate! However the calm and settled start to January, well.....err....didn't happen? Have you got any updates to add your forecast that you'd wish to announce? Personally, I still feel that we're in for a cold February and perhaps most of us Scots may see quite a bit of snow as we go through late Winter and early Spring.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think it ended up exactly on average due to the mild conditions on New Years Eve. Still, not bad for what's supposed to be the mildest month of the winter! LS- your forecast for December seemed very accurate! However the calm and settled start to January, well.....err....didn't happen? Have you got any updates to add your forecast that you'd wish to announce? Personally, I still feel that we're in for a cold February and perhaps most of us Scots may see quite a bit of snow as we go through late Winter and early Spring.

Did I say that? I'll have a look at what I said then and see what needs addressing later on. I was quite pleased with how December turned out but naturally that is the easiest month of the winter to predict. I feel the evolution to cold that I predicted may need revising somewhat. At ground level settled weather up to mid month will become more prevalent as predicted but I'm doubtful that we'll swing from that straight into an easterly by the end of the month.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Sounds great! What would happen if the PV ended up over the uk?

This.

[Benvironment]

Power's still off here. Apparently Scottish Power are going to compensate people for meals out and nights in hotels. Hmm. <hatches plan>

Took a walk through the Falkland Estate today. Shocking damage to Maspie Den and that area. Even though it's a natural process and it paves the way for other species to colonise, it's very sad to see.

[spindrift1980]

A very fine , crystal clear day - my favourite kind of Winter Weather. All that was missing was some frost / snow. That's Scotland for you the worst weather last night then brilliant today.

Certainly was - from Tinto Hill near Lanark today I could clearly make out the snowy outlines of Ben Vorlich and Stuc a'Chroin by Loch Earn in Perthshire, about 60 miles away. Yesterday I could hardly see Hamilton across the Clyde from Motherwell through the murk!

[Hairy Celt]

I'm gping to change my profile pic and I'd like you to choose which one is the best!

I'd go for something bold like the phone box...

although I see you haven't!!

Edited January 5, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Norrance]

Cool and windy but sunny here today after early squally showers.

Up in Perthshire earlier where still bits of snow in shaded bits even on low ground once past Dunkeld apart from near Ballinluig.

Lots of snow on the hills as can be seen in the photo from Aberfeldy weather site.

http://www.aberfeldyweather.com/phy/clim/490/DSCF0571.JPG

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Lots of snow on the hills as can be seen in the photo from Aberfeldy weather site.

Aye, I could see the snowy peaks of the southern highlands when looking north from Soutra this morning on the way to work. Beautiful clear morning so it was.

3 C here and starry sky. Just a light, chilly breeze. Lovely.

[A Winter's Tale]

I'm going to give up posting or reading the model thread. I made two valid points about how there was no need for any negativity, shouldn't take each run as gospel, the points that GP have made and that there's 50 odd days of winter left and 5 months to get snowfall. It was considered sniping and got deleted.

Well, correct me if I'm wrong but there doesn't seem to be any actual model discussion going on there and the mods are doing nothing to stop it. As a result, that thread is overloading with totally Over the Top, Bi-polar posts and there's very little discussion about the actual outlook. It's not a cold hunting thread, so therefore whatever the run is, you've still got to get to the point about the weather it would bring and the pattern. Perhaps there should be a thread names "Model Outlook Discussion for Cold and Snow"!

I feel that eventually we'll see things turn out right, whether that's next week or the end of the month, and as a result I assume that we'll get some good wintry weather in February, if not, I suspect Spring could be pretty decent. But I feel that over the next few weeks we are going to see moaning get to a new level and the entire forum being centred about the lack of snow in the South! I do feel that their Scandi Hi won't happen, Instead us Scots will get all the Polar Maritime air and topplers and I do believe that we'll benefit from a decent cold spell late in winter.

I really do get ticked off about members saying "winter's over, no snow, let spring start, we're being realistic that there's going to be no cold spell". Well if these people really think that this winter is going to be pointless for cold and snow then they should stop watching the models and posting silly posts and get a life and do something useful.

As a result of my frustration, I've given the Mods the task to delete a new thread in the Model Discussion area titled "The Moaning about the Model Outlook Thread". They will never learn!

[Cheggers]

Cracking day here really despite the raw breeze, and now fort he ice rink!!! Temp @ 1C and still lots of water (ice) about.

Big Inns, wee un doing just great, up to 11lb now!!!!!!

Happy Birthday Bleakmidwinter.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The ECM ensembles are obviously still flirting with some kind of cold outbreak around +240 hours http://www.meteociel...M0-240.GIF?05-0

The freebie Epsgram tonight is for Thorshavn in the Faeroes, and shows the operational ECM to be one of the milder runs, bordering on an outlier in FI

http://www.ecmwf.int...urope/page.html

This is the operational at 240 hours http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?05-0

So the ECM ensembles are still quite keen on bringing in a northerly with the trough towards Scandinavia.

The NAEFS, another ensemble set sometimes used by the more enlightened model posters to identify general pressure trends rather than microanalysing every single run, also sees the trough centred further east http://176.31.229.22...-0-0-240.png?12

Longer term it points to the Aleutian high becoming more dominant across the Arctic, particularly across the Siberian side, with that PV sprawling to our northwest http://176.31.229.22...-0-0-384.png?12 A very weak signal for troughing over southeast Europe but that high to the south still looks like hanging around. However, if the PV does completely fragment as some on the strat thread have suggested is possible this would all change further out.

A point about the models - there was a bit of confusion about whether or not models 'know' about the stratospheric forecasts. Believe it or not, the GFS and ECM are actually the models used to get those stratospheric forecasts. You couldn't possibly have a weather model that didn't have data for every layer of the atmosphere and that's why NW extra members can access skew-t charts generated by the GFS. However, as with any computer model, it struggles when there are major changes in the output and especially with how that will impact on lower levels of the atmosphere. The models haven't been especially inconsistent, but they have been more inconsistent than perhaps they were a few weeks ago towards FI.

Another factor at play here is the MJO - the forecast before was for it to head into phase 7, weaken and jump back out again at phase 5. That appears to have changed http://www.cpc.ncep....splume_full.gif .

Happy birthday Bleak Midwinter!

Edited January 5, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[lorenzo]

Been matching the reforecast suite images with the real time NOAA analysis.

That Aleutian Ridge anomaly builds further and further across the Pole at 8-14 days, with the Atlantic heights and modelling on west coast US looking uncertain. The picked the ECM Ens 00z for most of their blend. Interestingly right on cue on 15th Jan NAO goes negative on the teleconnection indices. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zecmwfensindices.html

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1

TO 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS OFFSET BY

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED DURING

THIS PERIOD.

Painfully slow pattern change that is, quite a difference on the models today after the latest onslaught of storms.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Will the notorious 'pub' 18Z GFS run turn out, like some MT posters have hoped, to be a 'stella run?

[edo]

I would go 1 AWT but as on mobile can't see what uve actually selected

[A Winter's Tale]

I would go 1 AWT but as on mobile can't see what uve actually selected

Thanks. I don't think I'll need to change anything at this moment.

[A Winter's Tale]

Will the notorious 'pub' 18Z GFS run turn out, like some MT posters have hoped, to be a 'stella run?

I hope so!

[A Winter's Tale]

Are there any more entries for the Scotland Regional Thread Snow Log?