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Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire

Lovely downgrade from the models for Friday in the past 12 hours hopefully this will continue in the days to come.

As was mentioned yesterday, the central pressure for any LP is not the crucial factor in determining how strong the associated gradient will be, so even if the models "downgrade" as you put it, there might still be very squeezed isobars to the S of this predicted system. Also, the speed the system is actually moving has an effect on the surface wind speed, so the faster the movement, the greater this effect will be.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sheffield
Posted · Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, December 12, 2011 - Whilst I tend to agree, I don't want the thread to descend into bickering.
Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, December 12, 2011 - Whilst I tend to agree, I don't want the thread to descend into bickering.

Yes, I would think the possibility of the mildest Xmas since 1988, although I suppose we are overdue a mild Xmas period.

Same old garbage from you and a few other posters who are you mystic meg? it's 13 days to Christmas no one can accurately predict what is going to happen, Shedhead your comments are a nonsense has well nothing is ever nailed on in weather! the models are chopping and changeing daily it's case of what and see what the next set of models brings but to say it could possible be the mildest christmas for 23 years is way off the mark at this point in time.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

IMO, nothing is 'nailed on' for Xmas. It's still 13 days' away; whatever some of the models may hint at. We'll just have to wait and see.

So Pete, given the current model setup, you wouldn't be prepared to say it's nailed that this Xmas Day will be milder than Xmas Day last year then?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So Pete, given the current model setup, you wouldn't be prepared to say it's nailed that this Xmas Day will be milder than Xmas Day last year then?

:rofl: You got me!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sheffield

IMO, nothing is 'nailed on' for Xmas. It's still 13 days' away; whatever some of the models may hint at. We'll just have to wait and see.

Exactly Pete the models are chopping and changeing as it is in the short term! so how can anyone say with any confidence that it's going to be Mild and it could be the mildest Christmas since 1988 is going abit OTT IMO.

So Pete, given the current model setup, you wouldn't be prepared to say it's nailed that this Xmas Day will be milder than Xmas Day last year then?

~

It's 13 days to Christmas that's 1 day short of 2 weeks anything can happen in that amount of time! so to say that it's nailed on to be milder than last Christmas day is abit premature! to say the least! the models will chop and change from now until then! nothing is nailed on at all! we will just have to wait and see how things pan out.

Edited by Derbyshire_snow
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Exactly Pete the models are chopping and changeing as it is in the short term! so how can anyone say with any confidence that it's going to be Mild and it could be the mildest Christmas since 1988.

Of course you can say things like this, given the current synoptics and teleconnections. Are you suggesting that if a raging E'erly had been modelled in the longer term for 4 or 5 days and the very latest runs were showing a raging E'erly on Xmas Day, with a huge block to the north and -15c Hpa air over the whole country, this forum would not be full of people saying a very cold Xmas is pretty much nailed and it could be the coldest for 24yrs?

That would be the time to critisise member who say a mild/very mild Xmas looks pretty much nailed, not now when it genuinely does.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Exactly Pete the models are chopping and changeing as it is in the short term! so how can anyone say with any confidence that it's going to be Mild and it could be the mildest Christmas since 1988.

~

It's 13 days to Christmas that's 1 day short of 2 weeks anything can happen in that amount of time! so to say that it's nailed on to be milder than last Christmas day is abit premature! to say the least! the models will chop and change from now until then! nothing is nailed on at all! we will just have to wait and see how things pan out.

Don't get suckered re comparing to last year quote! :smilz38:

And so we await the 06z, will trend to move track of LP continue?

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: lancing, west sussex
  • Location: lancing, west sussex

anyway...

The GFS 6z produces stronger winds for NI and scotland in the -T48 period, The exact positioning and strength of even tomorrows system is by no means nailed on....

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

judging by the uncertainty in the short term, to put your neck on the line and call that for christmas is a big risk. Yes the models show a WSW-ENE tilt to the jet for around that period, but that co uld quite simply disperse by 11am today.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

well it looking sort of mild for xmas day !!! but is there a beast from the east coming for the new year yes i know its f1 things could change!!!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

...I notice the MetO are hedging their bets by including the whole country in theor latest warnings, so clearly there is consdierable uncertainty at this stage.

This is what a met office hedging their bets looks like !

post-7292-0-99945200-1323683937_thumb.jp

Prior to the event later in the week Tuesday/Weds system seems to have gained more complexity - dual LP over much of Scotland.

How this unravels is beyond me..

http://176.31.229.22.../gfs-0-42.png?6

Edit (re Xmas)

Pick your solution from here... http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-192.png?0 PV ejecting more LP, Slack HP, or cold from the East..

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

People saying mild is nailed on for Xmas clearly don't understand weather at all. I wouldn't pay attention to these posts and don't discuss them. Right now f1 starts around + 72 so what happens after can not be called with any confidence at all

I agree , besides people say Mild but even if the High pressure does build over the Uk , at this time of year even with positive 850's thIs can mean frost , freezing fog and ICE. It is also possible that energy will remain to strong to our North to allow the high to build in the first place which would result in a period of continued zonality .

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

And the 06z brings it even further south, midlands north will get no wind to speak of with this run next weekend.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Friday's low even further south on the 06z GFS, with northern France bearing the brunt of the strongest winds! The low looks less developmental now.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Interesting GFS run regarding fridays LP...My memory is hazy, but hasn't the GFS reverted back to its earlier runs from a few days back when it showed this system as a channel Low?...I'm sure I remember members posting on this....Interesting because there are tantalizing possibilities of a marginal snow event for central parts of the UK if this particular run verified?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

This may disappoint some in here, but a mild or very mild Christmas Day is far from "nailed", though it looks more likely than not to happen in the south. The reason for this is that although a build of pressure around the 20th December is set to happen following a brief northerly outbreak, the build of pressure could last for most of the last third of December as per Ian Brown's repeated projection (meaning a mild Christmas for all) or it could stick around for just a few days followed by a change back to colder and more stormy westerly-dominated weather around Christmas (hence possibly average to fairly cold, especially in the north).

The models have shifted into strong agreement on bringing Friday's low further south and making it less deep, though this still presents a chance of severe gales in southern parts of England and thus is still worth keeping an eye on. A marginal rain/sleet/snow event is probable on its northern flank, mostly snow above about 200m and rain near sea level but there is a possibility of localised snowfalls down to near sea level due to evaporative cooling.

@ajpoolshark- beat me to it, d'oh!

Meanwhile the northerly outbreak leading up to the hypothesised "mild Christmas" has been toned up in intensity, such that most places that see showers from it from the Midlands north will probably get snow. The main issue is the distribution of shower activity- a north to north-westerly flow leaves most of the UK in the "wishbone area" and Wales and SW England would be most favoured for showers, which would probably fall as a wintry mix there. It's a long way off though.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

What's all this "nailed on" stuff anyway? It's my new least favourite phrase after "faux cold". To me, nailed on looks like a catherine wheel on a fence, spinning furiously; at the weekend the LP for this weekend looked like that, but things change. For some a bit of advice is required: don't start speculating about massive and widespread damage just because a terrifying catherine wheel is shown to be spinning towards the country. There's enough hyperbole in the media without seeing it in here as well.

So, a less intense storm, but the lower intensity results in the system tracking further south instead of taking a left turn which is the wont of the rapidly deepening systems. Looks like being a very unsettled week in the south for a change, and I look forward to it. The form horse following on from the weekend toppler is milder zonality as Ian Brown likes to point out, but I notice that the jetstream is forecast to remain very strong and flat across the Pacific so, as ever, events over the US will play a large part in the flow across the Atlantic and ultimately the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

With regards to what happens beyond the end of the week and the the run up to Xmas period, it's all very well saying there's uncertainty beyond the end of the week - because the models haven't resolved the track of Friday's low which may have a knock-on effect.

But this is finer detail in the great scheme of what's happening and individual lows will not have a huge impact on the overall upper pattern in the northern hemisphere that looks likely to prevail as we enter the Xmas period - which looks likely to be deep troughing continuing to the NW which may force a ridge to build towards western Europe from the Azores. So, what the models and teleconnections have been consistently showing for a few days now is either high pressure builds across the UK towards Xmas, or less palatable southwesterlies instead.

We do have a northerly/northwesterly toppler to look forward to (though maybe downgraded) and the ridge building in may retain the cold Pm air, but it looks like the jet will reset to more northerly track over NW Europe with a SW-NE path.

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

eanwhile the northerly outbreak leading up to the hypothesised "mild Christmas" has been toned up in intensity, such that most places that see showers from it from the Midlands north will probably get snow. The main issue is the distribution of shower activity- a north to north-westerly flow leaves most of the UK in the "wishbone area" and Wales and SW England would be most favoured for showers, which would probably fall as a wintry mix there. It's a long way off though.

I hadn't realised that Scotland had left the United Kingdom, most especially the Scottish Highlands? :p

I'm of course joking, but the 06z would potentially deliver some great snowfalls for Highland Scotland.

Edited by NorthernRab
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

What's all this "nailed on" stuff anyway? It's my new least favourite phrase after "faux cold". To me, nailed on looks like a catherine wheel on a fence, spinning furiously; at the weekend the LP for this weekend looked like that, but things change. For some a bit of advice is required: don't start speculating about massive and widespread damage just because a terrifying catherine wheel is shown to be spinning towards the country. There's enough hyperbole in the media without seeing it in here as well.

So, a less intense storm, but the lower intensity results in the system tracking further south instead of taking a left turn which is the wont of the rapidly deepening systems. Looks like being a very unsettled week in the south for a change, and I look forward to it. The form horse following on from the weekend toppler is milder zonality as Ian Brown likes to point out, but I notice that the jetstream is forecast to remain very strong and flat across the Pacific so, as ever, events over the US will play a large part in the flow across the Atlantic and ultimately the UK.

What's all this "form horse" stuff anyway? Have I entered the Tote's forum by mistake??.. :rofl: 06 GFS again takes the LP further south later this week and as TWS said results in a rather more potent Pm shot, but towards the end of the reliable we're still looking at the development of a mild/very mild pre Xmas evolution. Perhaps not quite a hairdrier, but a decent hand dryer nonetheless... :sorry:

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

This may disappoint some gloaters in here, but a mild or very mild Christmas Day is far from "nailed", though it looks more likely than not to happen in the south. The reason for this is that although a build of pressure around the 20th December is set to happen following a brief northerly outbreak, the build of pressure could last for most of the last third of December as per Ian Brown's repeated projection (meaning a mild Christmas for all) or it could stick around for just a few days followed by a change back to colder and more stormy westerly-dominated weather around Christmas (hence possibly average to fairly cold, especially in the north).

The models have shifted into strong agreement on bringing Friday's low further south and making it less deep, though this still presents a chance of severe gales in southern parts of England and thus is still worth keeping an eye on. A marginal rain/sleet/snow event is probable on its northern flank, mostly snow above about 200m and rain near sea level but there is a possibility of localised snowfalls down to near sea level due to evaporative cooling.

@ajpoolshark- beat me to it, d'oh!

Meanwhile the northerly outbreak leading up to the hypothesised "mild Christmas" has been toned up in intensity, such that most places that see showers from it from the Midlands north will probably get snow. The main issue is the distribution of shower activity- a north to north-westerly flow leaves most of the UK in the "wishbone area" and Wales and SW England would be most favoured for showers, which would probably fall as a wintry mix there. It's a long way off though.

I think you are right.

12_UKMet_H500_PSL_96_144.gif

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