Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

[Frosty.]

Not exactly. The latest models show The Northern third of Scotland under -5C uppers which could be good enough for snow. There's still plenty of time for change and what I'm looking out for is: 1) The Polar Martitime incursion on the 23rd to last longer 2) For the -5C uppers on Xmas Day to be a bit further south Timing and positioning is key here and things will change a lot. Hopefully a bit closer to the time we'll see some -5C uppers in at least the north third of the UK near or at Christmas Time.

I take your point about the far north but the models show it being very marginal for snow and I have just noticed the latest meto 6-15 day update has no mention of snow or wintry ppn within it. I do think the latest ensembles show northern britain remaining influenced by low pressure to the north so a lot more unsettled in the north but the large high to the south of the uk will mean pressure rising across southern britain so less rain and more chance of frost and fog if the high builds in across southern areas.. .

[TonyH]

It will be interesting to see if persistent high pressure finally builds over England and Wales, it has been suggested in the models over recent weeks without happening.

Edited December 18, 2011 by TonyH

[rich1]

Xmas day looking not too clever at this range though still some scope for change to some degree that can deliver 'seasonal' weather, either under a bit of HP or a NW incursion. Possibly less likely than a depressing sw influence but we wont know for sure for a couple of days or so

as for the models at the moment, they are underwhelming looking presently but there are some differences than the situation we faced a month ago, in that firstly the statospheric conditions are a bit healthier than the record breakingly dire state it was in a few weeks ago, and secondly GFS have played around with the HP set up generally speaking with the core a bit further north and west than we saw in November, more or less over the UK. In february it would bring cool nights and warmer days under the strengthening sun, but in late december there is scope for frosty/foggy weather to perhaps become more apparent as the high beds in after an initial milder period, at least for a time anyway. Which is not that bad if you like cold weather. We could be unlucky and the high sinks south in to a bartletty set up, but I prefer to look at the best case scenarios as much as possible and with some hints [only hints] that we could at least be batting on a more even wicket in terms of the upstream conditions than previously, its not yet a write off scenario. Be interested to see how the models develop over the next 10 days, as that could be a key period as regards whether the first half of the season is salvageable even though any snowy scenarios look distant this side of the new year at the moment

[Matty M]

Would appear we are heading into a very daunting period where a very unfavorable pattern could lock in for upto 4-6 weeks. As when this pattern appears with a European, Bartlett high and strong PV locked above it. It can take a very big pattern shift to bring cold conditions.

I think at this point we could be writing off until January 10th for true cold prospects.

[phil nw.]

Good discussion today on the up and coming period and it seems most of us accept that a predominately milder spell is on the way this coming week.

There`s pretty good concensus in the output for this--- here is the UK fax at T84 ---

showing the warmer upper air coming right across the UK behind the fronts, on Weds.

The far North will be prone to brief colder interludes as the fronts waver back and forth over the UK towards Xmas weekend but essentially it seems like a failrly flat Atlantic driven setup is here for a spell.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.192.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...192/h500slp.png

I noticed that into next week on those links above the GFS has tended to build the Azores High closer to the UK than the ECM and this would likely make a difference to the surface conditions ---with a possible cold inversion setting up if the High was centred over the UK.

So although the next week looks pretty Zonal with temps tending to be slightly above average the placement of the surface features in the medium term may see a more seasonal feel under any High pressure.

Nothing cold in this mornings ens

http://hw.nwstatic.c...arwickshire.png

http://www.weerplaza...ledig_06260.png

The op runs are fairly close to the means.

Edited December 18, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[winterof79]

The above charts are for a few days prior to the onset of cold easterlies in both years. Looking at each, it is hard to imagine exactly what happened as being possible, yet it did, in quite a dramatic way.

As I said, it is a bit of a stretch. We'll see over the next few days if the models do start hinting at it.

Compare the following chart to the 1947 chart you posted remarkable pressure placements and pressure heights.

Edited December 18, 2011 by winterof79

[Snowstorm1]

No posts so far sums it up really even me a massive cold and snow ramper on this board I am so gutted looking at the charts really I honestly am lost for words anyways you mildies enjoy it is all I can say I certainly won't be though

[shedhead]

I don't think anyone is left fooling themselves (or at least they shouldn't be) about where we are headed in the near future, nor I feel should we be deluding ourselves

about how difficult the pattern being touted by GFS post T+72hrs will be to break, but break it will...eventually. No doubt about it patience is going to be required, but I think

by New Year Nick's aptly named 'limpet PV' over NE Canada will have become unstuck and things will be look a whole lot more positive for cold... until then perhaps a

brief spell of hibernation might be in order...

Edited December 18, 2011 by shedhead

[leicsnow]

I don't think anyone is left fooling themselves (or at least they shouldn't be) about where we are headed in the near future, nor I feel should we be deluding ourselves

about how difficult the pattern being touted by GFS post T+72hrs will be to break, but break it will...eventually. No doubt about it patience is going to be required, but I think

by New Year Nick's aptly named 'limpet PV' over NE Canada will have become unstuck and things will be look a whole lot more positive for cold... until then perhaps a

brief spell of hibernation might be in order...

When you say "where we are headed for in the near future", do you mean the mild weather mid-week or after Christmas up to the New Year?

[Harsh Climate]

I don't think anyone is left fooling themselves (or at least they shouldn't be) about where we are headed in the near future, nor I feel should we be deluding ourselves

about how difficult the pattern being touted by GFS post T+72hrs will be to break, but break it will...eventually. No doubt about it patience is going to be required, but I think

by New Year Nick's aptly named 'limpet PV' over NE Canada will have become unstuck and things will be look a whole lot more positive for cold... until then perhaps a

brief spell of hibernation might be in order...

And how do you know that?

There is absolutly nothing to suggest things will look better after christmas, anyone who says so is just guessing/hoping.

I really hope things do improve, but this bartlett set-up we are locked in could quite easily roll through most of the winter. Im not saying it will just it COULD. Just as easily we could be looking at the prospects of a BEASTERLY in like 10-15 days time (well almost as easily .)

So basically we will just have to wait and see what happens. As nobody really has a clue how this winter will pan out.

Edited December 18, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[tinybill]

When you say "where we are headed for in the near future", do you mean the mild weather mid-week or after Christmas up to the New Year?

well looking deep in to f1 we talking about the very least the first week of jan , fingers cross it might change still

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don't think anyone is left fooling themselves (or at least they shouldn't be) about where we are headed in the near future,

Where is that then? Pattern description please? Models aren't entirely agreeing so clarity would be good.

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is showing a rather settled run tonight

Not far off a Bartlett High either at times

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2041.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2521.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2761.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png

2012 Begins under low pressure

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3601.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png

So if you want proper winter weather come back in 2012 as this month will not bring anything other than settled and at times mild weather.

[shedhead]

When you say "where we are headed for in the near future", do you mean the mild weather mid-week or after Christmas up to the New Year?

Yes Tellow, that is precisely what I meant. Up until recently several members were doing some very laudable ostrich impressions, but quite frankly there has been

an air of inevability over a mild/very mild spell for some time now, with the only real questions being how long it lasts and how do we get out of it.

[NorthernRab]

So if you want proper winter weather come back in 2012 as this month will not bring anything other than settled and at times mild weather.

Or alternatively maybe I'll come back in a few days time? The only logic behind your statement would be that the pattern is very difficult to shift, but how can something be very difficult to shift if it hasn't yet come into existence? There is no Barlet High currently nor does it look particularly likely that there will be, only an area of high Pressure to the south of England over mainland Europe.

[sundog]

Todays gfs 12z run has done its own version of A Nightmare before Christmas for cold fans. Dire stuff,i hope things wont work out as bad as that. Anyway still plenty of winter left whatever happens.

[shedhead]

And how do you know that?

There is absolutly nothing to suggest things will look better after christmas, anyone who says so is just guessing/hoping.

I really hope things do improve, but this bartlett set-up we are locked in could quite easily roll through most of the winter. Im not saying it will just it COULD. Just as easily we could be looking at the prospects of a BEASTERLY in like 10-15 days time (well almost as easily .)

So basically we will just have to wait and see what happens. As nobody really has a clue how this winter will pan out.

Actually, if you look at the longer range GFS 12 run, the limpet has left the rock...

[phil nw.]

One or two tetchy comments are creeping into some posts guys.

By all means make your points but keep it friendly please.

Edited December 18, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[nick sussex]

Before the emergency prozac helpline is overwhelmed with net weather members can we just wait and see what the ECM has to say!

High pressure to the south looks a good bet initially but whether it stays there or not isn't a done deal.

[weathe20]

GFS 12z is showing a rather settled run tonight

Not far off a Bartlett High either at times

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2041.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2521.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2761.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png

2012 Begins under low pressure

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3601.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png

So if you want proper winter weather come back in 2012 as this month will not bring anything other than settled and at times mild weather.

Hopefully some cold will appear in the charts soon so mild Gavin can stop spamming this forum with chart after chart with no explanation of anything.

[phil nw.]

Before the emergency prozac helpline is overwhelmed with net weather members can we just wait and see what the ECM has to say!

High pressure to the south looks a good bet initially but whether it stays there or not isn't a done deal.

Yes a good point Nick.

The modelling of the High has been different on the earlier runs--GFS had it much further North for example.

[winterof79]

To add to my post at the top of this page,is the chart which OMM posted for 1947 not a Bartlett senario when compared with what most on here are saying is about to occur?If so,that did not last too long did it?One week later and it was very different.Just an illustration of why high pressure to the south does not guarantee warmth.

Edited December 18, 2011 by winterof79

[Zenarcher]

Interesting on the GFS 12z control run perhaps some sort of hope or sign?

[Duane S.]

Interesting on the GFS 12z control run perhaps some sort of hope or sign?

Yep, the 06z op did the same,in line with my thinking, the first shot as a split vortex occurs which will likely be flattened but it's a start!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Im quite supprise at how negative ppl are been, the first signs of ,mild since the beggining of the month and ppl are saying this will be with us right through the winter? We all no how fickle fi is so we need not look with confindence anything past 140hrs apart from trend setting, for those thats feeling negative i suggest you have a read through the strat thred over the last wk as theres quite alarming signals regarding a possible ssw event , the weakening of the pv and where this leads, also this mid lat high we'r about to have this next wk or so is something that may benefit us as we go though jan as its breaking the dominance of the atlantic, and to get to northern blocking eventually its something we may have to just grin and bare it for now.