Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

[lorenzo]

http://176.31.229.22...nh-0-180.png?18

could be a crazy pub run.... cold surface high towards Scandi

S

See Here ... ??

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's worth noting that the GFS 18Z operational run would still give potentially damaging gusts to some parts of the country, with the main risk zone further south than on previous runs. Probably nothing major though, with no hurricane force gusts as per the 06Z.

[nick sussex]

This looks interesting from the NAEFS at 180hrs:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=180&mode=0&map=1

European troughing, Azores ridge to the west, high pressure ridging up towards Svalbard from Russia, how could that develop?

[OldMetMan]

I love the way it doesn't go below 950mb! i wonder how low that is!

The density of isobars makes it difficult to see, but it looks like 920 something millibars!

I think it must have blown a few fuses on this run!

[Cheese Rice]

Next week looks potentially quite wintry in places, 850s around -3/-6 for the most parts, could pull a few surprises almost anywhere.

Wintry showers as far south as SW england.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, a wintry mix of showers possible to low levels just about anywhere, although I think lasting snow cover will most likely be confined to high ground south of the Scottish border.

[Mark Neal.]

Next week looks potentially quite wintry in places, 850s around -3/-6 for the most parts, could pull a few surprises almost anywhere.

Wintry showers as far south as SW england.

Definately a greater risk of snow in the coming week, as the 528 dam line is over much of the country. Heres hoping.

[nick sussex]

I think we're seeing some encouraging signs that we will begin to see changes as we head towards the New Year, that NAEFS anomaly and generally we're moving in the right direction in terms of colder potential.

Really it's been a much better start to December in terms of wintry weather for some areas than we could have imagined just looking at the key teleconnections.

Still a way to go but I'm hopeful that we'll get there eventually and move away from this relentless Atlantic onslaught.

[legritter]

well it was worth it staying up for the 120 fax .tomorrows ecm run im sure will once again show a dartboard low for wed , i think a little south though . a trying time for mod watching and a real challenge for the met .a few big question marks for 17/18th .will we see low pressure to our north east being forced south ,is something a stiring .

[Aaron]

Yes, a wintry mix of showers possible to low levels just about anywhere, although I think lasting snow cover will most likely be confined to high ground south of the Scottish border.

So standard December weather then? Yawn.

[phil nw.]

I rarely comment on the 18z but where do we go from here--last frame of the HR part of the run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

The vortex to our North not looking so organised and the jet looking for a way south.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18015.png

Signs that there are options other than the Zonal train leading up to Christmas.

[lorenzo]

I rarely comment on the 18z but where do we go from here--last frame of the HR part of the run

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

The vortex to our North not looking so organised and the jet looking for a way south.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn18015.png

Signs that there are options other than the Zonal train leading up to Christmas.

Ridge!!!!!!!

[Frosty.]

Not much sign of IB's sw/ne angled jet on today's models, any mild weather seems to be getting squeezed out with either cool or cold zoneality in control. The models agree on some sort of arctic blast next weekend with snow to low levels so hopefully some wintry weather down to the south coast and with the jet being nw/se there is scope for further wintry reloads as shown on the gfs 18z although the north is more favoured.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Post 899. My thoughts remain, the storm approaching on Fri or period 15-17 may shift south ie southern UK getting bigger hit. Models are now shifting slightly south again and I'm looking at main trough to our N or NE with seperate or secondary LP scooting along southern UK and also the ridge behing being more robust. If not then a quick reset of one. I do think a quick total breaking down of ridge is wrong.

As I have said and is being said is that this storm is still 5-7 days off, lots can and will change re track and intensity. Interesting days ahead I think.

BFTP

[cj114]

Off topic I know [and feel free to remove] but I do get quite cross when new members, mostly young and enthusiastic ignore or castigate John Holmes posts.

This chap has more experience in his little finger than almost anyone else here. I still look for his posts along with Stuart etc for a reasonable non excitable, non ramping idea of what to watch for.

It would be nice if others accorded him the deference he deserves. I thank you.

p.s A downgrade would be good as far as I am concerned. When it comes to Wind I am still suffering from the 1987 storm which scared the life out of me.

[Cheese Rice]

Still a way to go but I'm hopeful that we'll get there eventually and move away from this relentless Atlantic onslaught.

Its not been that bad really, more cool zonal than true zonal.

Temperatures here for example have struggled to reach 5.c since December began. Putting us firmly below average so far.

It could be better but could be much worse.

[feb1991blizzard]

Not much sign of IB's sw/ne angled jet on today's models, any mild weather seems to be getting squeezed out with either cool or cold zoneality in control. The models agree on some sort of arctic blast next weekend with snow to low levels so hopefully some wintry weather down to the south coast and with the jet being nw/se there is scope for further wintry reloads as shown on the gfs 18z although the north is more favoured.

Accurate assesment, You and i are going to get wishboned though.

[Aaron]

Its not been that bad really, more cool zonal than true zonal.

Temperatures here for example have struggled to reach 5.c since December began. Putting us firmly below average so far.

It could be better but could be much worse.

I'd rather have an Atlantic train of heavy rain and wind then the dull weather we have now.

[Daniel Miller]

I'd rather have an Atlantic train of heavy rain and wind then the dull weather we have now.

Ha! Not when you have to walk a lot everyday like me! Wind yes, rain NO.

Regarding that snow chart posted above, 2 questions.

Firstly, is it likely that Wales will actually get snow down to low levels and secondly, why is so much snow falling in the sea? :S

[feb1991blizzard]

I'd rather have an Atlantic train of heavy rain and wind then the dull weather we have now.

We have had an atlantic train of heavy rain with a just a bit of sleet / wet snow thrown in now and again!

[Frosty.]

Accurate assesment, You and i are going to get wishboned though.

Thanks, and yes thats true about the wishbone..maybe a trip to the east coast is required next weekend as there should be some heavy snow showers skirting the coastal strip and maybe a few miles inland driven along by a strong NNW'ly wind.

[damianslaw]

I think we're seeing some encouraging signs that we will begin to see changes as we head towards the New Year, that NAEFS anomaly and generally we're moving in the right direction in terms of colder potential.

Really it's been a much better start to December in terms of wintry weather for some areas than we could have imagined just looking at the key teleconnections.

Still a way to go but I'm hopeful that we'll get there eventually and move away from this relentless Atlantic onslaught.

The atlantic at the moment reminds me of a car accelerating along a straight very very very long road but with a brick wall at the end of it - that brick wall being high pressure - i.e. it is gaining more and more momentum overtime but just when it hits its maximum speed - 'in the form of one major deep low system' it will crash into the wall and splinter into smaller pieces 'secondary lows' causing a gap in the wall to develop creating enough room for those heights to our east to steamride through...

In a word an atlantic as relentness as it has been will eventually run out of steam and I think when it does it will be in a dramatic abrupt fashion - not saying when this will happen but the longer it continues its attack the greater the likelohood it doing so - I normally give the atlantic 3 weeks to run out of steam 'in a normal cycle'..

[Frosty.]

Thanks, and yes thats true about the wishbone..maybe a trip to the east coast is required next weekend as there should be some heavy snow showers skirting the coastal strip and maybe a few miles inland driven along by a strong NNW'ly wind.

[OldMetMan]

I think it worth mentioning for everyone glued to the model output that, as things develop this week, it would be a useful addition to include watching the satellite imagery.

On this occasion, with the forecast low developing way south, the GOES-East images, accessible from the National Hurricane Centre web site, provide a variety of detailed pictures and animations.

http://www.nhc.noaa....satellite.shtml

If we are to get this storm, then there will be tell-tale satellite features that might indicate it's possible intensity, for example, the baroclinic leaf feature of lows that are likely to deepen rapidly, that is, an anticyclonically curved arc of cloud that appears north of a rapidly developing centre.

It is also useful to see where the main baroclinic zones are; judging from the UKMet forecasts, we seem to be seeing a merging of 2 zones in the forecast up until Friday, with a somewhat complex frontal structure. There appears to be 2 jets already involved looking at the latest satellite, one coming across Canada, the other heading NE from Florida. This is another arrangement that favours rapid low development. No doubt the models are picking up on this already.

Edited December 11, 2011 by OldMetMan

[ukpaul]

Off topic I know [and feel free to remove] but I do get quite cross when new members, mostly young and enthusiastic ignore or castigate John Holmes posts.

Well I responded to one of Johns' posts which was, for some reason, a response to me. I know who he is/was and I presume he knows how people use pre warnings from the Met Office for their forwards planning so I wasn't sure why it was a response to my need to do that, I was agreeing with him about going with the overall picture and I, myself, was frustrated with those who had changed their mind after just one run, as he was. I presumed I was agreeing with him!

I also presumed that people paid as much attention for similar reasons i.e. that they need to look further ahead so that they can be forewarned, maybe it's just a bit of fun for some though. Thankfully after the weekend it's Christmas holidays so the only thing I'm looking for then isn't any students that I'm in charge of (loco parentis stuff) but whether I can get up north to see the family!

Anyway, the ECM may have shifted things a little but it looks pretty similar for the South East compared to previous; unusually Friday's system seems to have been predicted to be further south through today, it's something I'm going to have to keep an eye on before as we break up Friday afternoon.

Edited December 11, 2011 by ukpaul