Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[Summer Sun]

Lovely GFS tonight again in FI could be onto something with the Met Office going for another mild spell in Early December

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/264/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/288/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/360/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/384/h500slp.png

[Iceaxecrampon]

Gets better and better.

Looking good all round for early December - confident.

[Mark Neal.]

Lovely GFS tonight again in FI could be onto something with the Met Office going for another mild spell in Early December

http://hw.nwstatic.c...264/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...288/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...360/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png

Might be lovely for you Gavin, but for the majority of people on here they will not want to see a return of milder weather and those pesky southerly winds. The only positive for ME would be that us Ballooning folk might be able to get a few slots of Ballooning before the Christmas and New Year period. Anyway back to the models- Few more chances of snow other scotland during this week as cold tracks in behind thee cold fronts, from what has been posted could be a chance of a Northerly next weekend, not bad in my opinion the charts, could be alot alot worse, but could be alot better!

[shedhead]

Lovely GFS tonight again in FI could be onto something with the Met Office going for another mild spell in Early December

http://hw.nwstatic.c...264/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...288/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...360/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png

Agh it get it now Gavin, you are a fan of mild weather, no wonder you have been pretty chipper of late. It's fair to say GFS have wanted to bring a Euro ridge back in the longer term, but the same caveats apply to FI whatever weather you are hoping for, i.e it's too far out to have any real confidence in.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Might be lovely for you Gavin, but for the majority of people on here they will not want to see a return of milder weather and those pesky southerly winds. The only positive for ME would be that us Ballooning folk might be able to get a few slots of Ballooning before the Christmas and New Year period. Anyway back to the models- Few more chances of snow other scotland during this week as cold tracks in behind thee cold fronts, from what has been posted could be a chance of a Northerly next weekend, not bad in my opinion the charts, could be alot alot worse, but could be alot better!

The problem as others have suggsted is that the aftermath of this flirtation with pm aie does not look pretty at all and the pattern of hp to the south or se must be fqvourite to take over again with low prerssure dominating at high latitudes which in turn will probably leave us back at square 1.

ps gavin those charts are not lovely for dec surely you must like seasonal weather in the run up to christmas?

[ukpaul]

GFS with a good degree of consistency with its previous run, maybe a little tardier at bringing in the last low pressure next weekend. FI totally inconsistent as you might expect and destined for the bin (ensemble runs are a mix of allsorts, although I tend to look at GFS FI and downgrade the persistence and severity of its lows). ECM at 192 and 216 was very different, is it going to stick to its guns?

EDIT: GFS op skimming along the top end of temperature in FI as expected (well, for this neck of the woods)

Ensembles 12z - London http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

Ensembles 12z - Aberdeen http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png

Edited November 27, 2011 by ukpaul

[AWD]

Lovely GFS tonight again in FI could be onto something with the Met Office going for another mild spell in Early December

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/264/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/288/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/360/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/12/384/h500slp.png

Thats Mid December mate, not early December! Way out in the depths of FI, although I agree it would back the Met Office outlook trend, and netweathers winter forecast of a return to more milder conditions after the next couple of weeks!

Anyway, the reliable shows a continuation of recent ouputs basically! As is well documented now, a much more mobile and stormy for some conditions setting in with wind and rain for all, some very strong winds possible in the north as deep LP systems pass northern Scotland!! Some pM shots look likely over the next couple of weeks, with one or two of these possibly strong enough to bring low level snow to Scotland and Northern England! For high ground in Scotland, some accumaltive snowfall is possible, with the Scottish Ski Industry looking good for the timebeing now!!

South into England and more especially the Midlands southwards and your looking at more average conditions with the pM airflow not really making any input down here, so average in terms of temps, but wind and rainfall still plentiful, just not as strong or as much as the north!!

Then we have a HP influence in FI with more settled and milder conditions prevailing, but that will chop and change over the next week so we will forget about that for now!!

A good active set of charts from the GFS again this evening, some nice deep depressions to keep and eye out for in the next few runs!! Let's see what the ECM can throw at us later now!

[laserguy]

Lovely GFS tonight again in FI could be onto something with the Met Office going for another mild spell in Early December

http://hw.nwstatic.c...264/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...288/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...360/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png

Why dontcha clear off with all this ridiculous warm-loving nonsense? Haven't we had more than enough in this so-far pitiful season? Get ready for when the Great Weather God in the sky does his great levelling trick and all we can see out in the furthest reaches of FI during June and July next year are torrential downpours and temps approaching single figures. Boy that would make me happy but I'd have no desire to rub such a synoptic dream into the faces of sun-lovers were it not for your persistent goading along the lines of the above (a reasonable post apart from the inclusion of that one word "lovely")! Good job there's little chance of it happening tho',eh? But then again,the way things have gone so far...

[Wales123098]

Thats Mid December mate, not early December! Way out in the depths of FI, although I agree it would back the Met Office outlook trend, and netweathers winter forecast of a return to more milder conditions after the next couple of weeks!

Anyway, the reliable shows a continuation of recent ouputs basically! As is well documented now, a much more mobile and stormy for some conditions setting in with wind and rain for all, some very strong winds possible in the north as deep LP systems pass northern Scotland!! Some pM shots look likely over the next couple of weeks, with one or two of these possibly strong enough to bring low level snow to Scotland and Northern England! For high ground in Scotland, some accumaltive snowfall is possible, with the Scottish Ski Industry looking good for the timebeing now!!

South into England and more especially the Midlands southwards and your looking at more average conditions with the pM airflow not really making any input down here, so average in terms of temps, but wind and rainfall still plentiful, just not as strong or as much as the north!!

Then we have a HP influence in FI with more settled and milder conditions prevailing, but that will chop and change over the next week so we will forget about that for now!!

A good active set of charts from the GFS again this evening, some nice deep depressions to keep and eye out for in the next few runs!! Let's see what the ECM can throw at us later now!

Why do you put !!! at the end of everything. Its irritating. Weather is exciting but not that exciting. Sorry mods delete this if you wish, I just find it annoying.

Edited November 27, 2011 by Wales123098

[Eskimo]

Why do you put !!! at the end of everything. Its irritating. Weather is exciting but not that exciting. Sorry mods delete this if you wish, I just find it annoying.

Wales...life must be that bad to consider '!!!' irritating :huh:

[jonnybradley]

FI of GFS is garbage, so coldies i would advise not to look!

The shorter term stuff does however provide some interest, we have snow and gales for Scotland, a few frosts and perhaps wintry showers elsewhere.

Also the Alps would get a welcome pre Christmas snowfall.

Noob here again!

The models certainly are looking more interesting. Most seem to be stacking these low pressure systems out in the Atlantic and seemingly disturbing the high pressure sitting over Europe into next week as they pass north of the UK.

Could this at last be bringing some Precipitation to the European ski resorts?

[Nick F]

The models certainly are looking more interesting. Most seem to be stacking these low pressure systems out in the Atlantic and seemingly disturbing the high pressure sitting over Europe into next week as they pass north of the UK.

Could this at last be bringing some Precipitation to the European ski resorts?

What's basically happening this coming week is a deepening upper trough, currently over the NW Atlantic, arrives across western Europe by mid-week which then continues to dig east across the continent and should bring some heavy rain and welcome snow at the higher resorts of the Alps. Behind this trough, the jet stream will take on a more NW - SE angle which will allow colder Pm air to dominate across the UK rather than Tm air. Should be plenty of snow over northern hills by the weekend.

This jet looks to be very powerful, so we could see some rather deep cyclogenesis this coming week and beyond with deep lows most likely taking a swipe at northern UK.

Signs are though on recent GFS runs, that with continued low heights towards the arctic and a strong zonal jet, could mean that the next long-wave trough coming out N America may force the Azores high into Europe and bring a spell of mild SW'erlies in early December. This possibility is still in FI though.

[Biggin]

Dont normally post but read a lot, too much cock crowing and back biting trying to score day by day. too much point scoring attempts and trying to belittle fellow posters, childish even... OON has his work cut out. Dont blame ya it you delete this oon, but from a watcher rather than poster dont envy you one bit.

[Gavin Hannah]

What we need is the HP to sneak a bit further north and the northerly incursions to dig in over the UK.

[Isolated Frost]

Lovely GFS tonight again in FI could be onto something with the Met Office going for another mild spell in Early December

http://hw.nwstatic.c...264/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...288/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...360/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png

Yep indeed lovely in the fact it's fi and most likely will not verify! In the meantime we have some exciting weather for most, cool and unsettled

[Gavin Hannah]

This chart is rather intriguing, The HP over the atlantic almost links up with the HP over greenland, close, but never close enough as the HP over the Atlantic shifts south east in subsequent charts.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I see you point there MSB, the only problem is that while the jet is as powerful as it is at the moment and NAOand AO remain positive then such a link up is very difficult to achieve. Would be great if it did though, something to look out for as we enter mid to late December I think.

[Matty M]

Chilly ECM

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Agreed, a very seasonal feel to both the GFS and ECM at that time scale. Plenty of snow showers in for the hills of northern Britain and with the strength of the wind a definate wind chill for the everyone.

[Uncle_Barty]

madsnowboarder - thats at least partly because the high over Greenland is a surface one and and not supported with good heights. We need to see the yellows start to appear over Greenland as well. The general upper pattern is not conducive to heights at high latitudes at the moment.

Edited November 27, 2011 by Jim_AFCB

[ukpaul]

Well well, take away the GFS's determination to push through those lows and we get ECM's first chillfest of the season, wouldn't last much more than another 12 hours beyond 240 but certainly of interest for the whole of the UK now. Both sticking to their guns but will GFS or ECM be the ones forced to back down?

[Gavin Hannah]

madsnowboarder - thats at least partly because the high over Greenland is a surface one and and not supported with good heights. We need to see the yellows start to appear over Greenland as well.

I see. So chances then of the highs linking up are slim to none?

[Matty M]

I see. So chances then of the highs linking up are slim to none?

\

At the moment, we have a compact strong polar vortex.

It is very unlikely that we will see any significant high pressure developing to our north for the next 14 days anyway.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

At present yes MSB, just take a look at this chart from last year to see what conditions we need over the pole for such a link up to happen.

http://www.wetterzen...00120101120.png

Edited November 27, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[chionomaniac]

Chilly ECM

This was the reason that I started the best topplers thread. If one follows the isobars over northern Scotland one can see that they originate over the North Pole. If the trough sunk a little bit further south it could possibly be the toppler to beat all topplers!

The NAO would still be positive as well, so this is really the best that can be hoped for presently. Not bad if shortwaves don't ruin it.