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Nope: more meridional frontal approach was touted yesterday and supported by EC. Broad development Thurs-Fri with good ARPEGE support. UKMO-GM sat at more extreme backed solution. Hence FAX strikes decent median route.

Please can we have a breakdown of the above in leymans terms for those still learning. Thanks :-)

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Please can we have a breakdown of the above in leymans terms for those still learning. Thanks :-)

Milder air making little inroads across the UK is the gist of it I think

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UPGRADE !!!!!

Bbc mr Hammond showed front moving in on Friday morning to western parts turning to snow !

Then showed specked snow across everywhere by Friday night and then said snow will move east over uk saturday

What does that mean! Will it be Uk wide?

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Have been watching on here for the past week or so,have learned so much. Been giving friends advance info,when you start talking about the details and the charts,it's surprising how interested they all are.They also think i'm nuts! even more so when i say we could be in for some snow,after all the rain we've had. I just hope this all comes into play! Posted Image

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Are you using the 80/20 rule: absorb 20% and disregard the rest? And if you're ever not sure, I always check two things: who's posting - you get to know who's talks sense and who certainly does not - and where they live

Mac

But most importantly, should you ever been in the position of thinking a cold snap might be coming to an end because that's how you might interpret the models, make sure you put on your suit of armour before posting anything! My experience of lurking over the years is that the 'snow junkies' who would sell their kids X-Box 360 for a flake of snow, tend to leap on anyone who dares to mention that dreaded weather related word 'r**n' or types anything about the possibilities of temperatures raising above 4 degrees celcius between the months of October and April. Still, it's often worth watching the aftermath when it's gone the way you thought and observing them turn on each other before the top addicts rush off to the fridge freezer to partially leave the door open in anticipation of the severe ice build up to take them through to the next modelled cold snap Posted Image Entertainment at its best to go along with some realistic model watching!

n.b. please correct me if a snow junkies maximum temperature before they explode is 4c. It may of course not be acceptable to have anything but ice days in their world! Posted Image

Moving on, snow now turning to rain yet again by the looks of things this weekend around here at some point, the timing of which is still uncertain. Not so much a cold block but more like the Atlantic losing a bit of puff this week in my opinion. A weak sleety /snow 24 hours broken into two sections followed by a few below freezing nights shouldn't be sniffed at I suppose, but you'd have been forgiven for thinking we were on the verge of something monumental by reading some of the stuff on here this past week! Oh well, better luck next time perhaps, but what was forecast on the local BBC outlook earlier was broadly what I expected. With those upper temps chopping and changing on the ECM for the forseeable, anything more substantial looks to be a bonus at this stage from the Midlands south.

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But most importantly, should you ever been in the position of thinking a cold snap might be Coming to an end because that's how you might interpret the models, make sure you put on your suit of armour before posting anything! My experience of lurking over the years is that the 'snow junkies' who would sell their kids X-Box 360 for a flake of snow, tend to leap on anyone who dares to mention that dreaded weather related word 'r**n' or types anything about the possibilities of temperatures raising above 4 degrees celcius between the months of October and April. Still, it's often worth watching the aftermath when it's gone the way you thought and observing them turn on each other before the top addicts rush off to the fridge freezer to partially leave the door open in anticipation of the severe ice build up to take them through to the next modelled cold snap Posted Image Entertainment at its best to go along with some realistic model watching!

n.b. please correct me if a snow junkies maximum temperature before they explode is 4c. It may of course not be acceptable to have anything but ice days in their world! Posted Image

Moving on, snow now turning to rain yet again by the looks of things this weekend around here at some point, the timing of which is still uncertain. Not so much a cold block but more like the Atlantic losing a bit of puff this week in my opinion. A weak sleety /snow 24 hours broken into two sections followed by a few below freezing nights shouldn't be sniffed at I suppose, but you'd have been forgiven for thinking we were on the verge of something monumental by reading some of the stuff on here this past week! Oh well, better luck next time perhaps, but what was forecast on the local BBC outlook earlier was broadly what I expected. With those upper temps chopping and changing on the ECM for the forseeable, anything more substantial looks to be a bonus at this stage from the Midlands south.

My first post here for a few years, but I'm curious as to what exactly the point was in typing that utter drivel? It's a model watching thread, FYI.

Weather users posts are ramping cold weather or not, as long as the posts are informative and relatively realistic and factual in nature, what's the problem?

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This may be unrelated to model-watching (and will therefore probably be deleted) but, if the severity of the potential snow is as predicted, surely the Met Office should be upgrading their alerts. In my area they are forecasting light snow on Friday and nothing on Saturday

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This may be unrelated to model-watching (and will therefore probably be deleted) but, if the severity of the potential snow is as predicted, surely the Met Office should be upgrading their alerts. In my area they are forecasting light snow on Friday and nothing on Saturday

i think there holding fire while say this evening post todays further out put to be honest
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This may be unrelated to model-watching (and will therefore probably be deleted) but, if the severity of the potential snow is as predicted, surely the Met Office should be upgrading their alerts. In my area they are forecasting light snow on Friday and nothing on Saturday

Yep just off the phone, frost and then high thin cloud for Warwickshire, sorry this time, AT LEAST it will be cold though.

BFTPPosted Image

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I need a good moan.

Models continuing to look better and push the lows further south through next week, probably amounting to a great snowy set up with slider lows bringing repeated snows, all in the 1 week of winter I have to be out the country!

This of course comes after the biggest weather event of the summer and year so far coming the one bloody week I was out the country then too!, and a major event in September coming 2 days after I had left for uni! in fact it feels like in the last year nearly every major weather event has tried pretty successfully to happen when I'm not there.

Of course, I have been predicting this week since August, when I realised I would not be in the country after the 18th. Once again I have been proved correct. Best LRF technique ever.

My only hope is milder air mixes into the south so it is a bit too marginal and we don't get big snow dumpings while I'm gone. I guess luckily I get to see any snow on Friday.

Ah charts like tonights ECM that look ready to bring in milder air just as I come back on the 26th are bound to be correct! lol

Edited by Stormmad26
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And now the models are trying to bloody remove Fridays event! my only chance of seeing anything decent! not bloody amused!!

You in East Devon or Surrey? Move to Plymouth and you'll see what rubbish weather is like. Lowest temp i've recorded all winter is 1.8 and that was a complete one off. Next lowest 3 degrees. Even this week it hasn't dropped below 3. Snow?? Heavy rain forecast for the weekend. and 7 degrees plus What i would do for a crisp cold morning and a negative reading on my thermometer.

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I try to ignore the models they are not always right. I am trying to not get too excited but the forecast for my area on Friday and Saturday is the best I have seen in a long time. It has been upgraded a few times I just hope it doesn't get downgraded the day before like usual.

And now the models are trying to bloody remove Fridays event! my only chance of seeing anything decent! not bloody amused!!

Edited by Sean19
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Now that the cold has arrived most have stopped moaning and the cold is a long awaited treat for most and I don't begrudge it,But on a personal level and being a mildly I am not impressed by the current conditions, I have not seen the sun since the start of this spell last weekend. Coldies always moan about the lack of sunshine in Atlantic based weather , but day after day its been leaden grey skies plus temperatures at 1c , At least in mobile Atlantic weather the sky can break and give sunshine and you can see the cloud formations . This is just tedious grey stratus. Just to add to my dislike, the snow is just a brown and grey slushy mess and making the streets look unsightly. at least we are on the right side of winter, I dont mind cold spells in Feb if they occur as spring is knocking on the door , March can bring winter weather too , but its rarely severe, and snow tends to be banished quick in any sun.

Looking forward to spring now and cumulonimbus showers, blue sky and milder temperatures, Just off to watch some thunderstorm videos on you tube to transport me to summer, and forget about the grey cold slushy drabness outside Posted Image

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Now that the cold has arrived most have stopped moaning and the cold is a long awaited treat for most and I don't begrudge it,But on a personal level and being a mildly I am not impressed by the current conditions, I have not seen the sun since the start of this spell last weekend. Coldies always moan about the lack of sunshine in Atlantic based weather , but day after day its been leaden grey skies plus temperatures at 1c , At least in mobile Atlantic weather the sky can break and give sunshine and you can see the cloud formations . This is just tedious grey stratus. Just to add to my dislike, the snow is just a brown and grey slushy mess and making the streets look unsightly. at least we are on the right side of winter, I dont mind cold spells in Feb if they occur as spring is knocking on the door , March can bring winter weather too , but its rarely severe, and snow tends to be banished quick in any sun.

Looking forward to spring now and cumulonimbus showers, blue sky and milder temperatures, Just off to watch some thunderstorm videos on you tube to transport me to summer, and forget about the grey cold slushy drabness outside Posted Image

I enjoy snow but I'm certainly not viewing this spell as a treat. It's a diabolical, abysmal spell of tediously dull and depressing rubbish. A spectacular flop.

The temperature has not gone below 0C here since the early hours of Thursday morning which is ridiculous given uppers of -10C. It's just a joke of a cold spell. I have snow lying at the moment but that is left over from last Monday/Tuesday and it looks horrible. Since then there has only been the odd flurry with thawing exceeding any further accumulation. Much of the more central parts of the city have no lying snow at allPosted Image

This is the second sunless slate grey weekend in succession. It's grim and the worst winter cold spell I've ever experienced. Can't wait for it to end but it looks like even worse to come before that happens.

I got three frosts during the mild Christmas and New Year period, including -1C on New Year's morning following a max of 10.5C the previous day, yet the past three days have not seen one frost despite the temperature not exceeding 3C. It's pathetic and proof that easterlies are no longer capable of delivering the proper cold, snowy spells that they could bring in the pastPosted Image

Edited by Richard2901
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I enjoy snow but I'm certainly not viewing this spell as a treat. It's a diabolical, abysmal spell of tediously dull and depressing rubbish. A spectacular flop.

The temperature has not gone below 0C here since the early hours of Thursday morning which is ridiculous given uppers of -10C. It's just a joke of a cold spell. I have snow lying at the moment but that is left over from last Monday/Tuesday and it looks horrible. Since then there has only been the odd flurry with thawing exceeding any further accumulation. Much of the more central parts of the city have no lying snow at allPosted Image

This is the second sunless slate grey weekend in succession. It's grim and the worst winter cold spell I've ever experienced. Can't wait for it to end but it looks like even worse to come before that happens.

I got three frosts during the mild Christmas and New Year period, including -1C on New Year's morning following a max of 10.5C the previous day, yet the past three days have not seen one frost despite the temperature not exceeding 3C. It's pathetic and proof that easterlies are no longer capable of delivering the proper cold, snowy spells that they could bring in the pastPosted Image

wah wah wah, just wait til feb

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I've quite enjoyed this cold spell so far, particularly the last two days when I got enough snow to build snowmen and go sledging. However, I won't deny that it's been a rather grey spell of weather here and, consequently, less enjoyable than the bright snowy spells that I experienced during the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11. Scandinavian highs are often associated with a shortage of sunshine over central and eastern Britain.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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No appreciable snow this winter unlike seemingly everywhere else.We here have had a couple of 2cm coverings which lasted not very long and this is so galling when places quite widely have had many inches of the stuff.Currently watching the slow thaw of a very patchy thin snow cover ,ah well,moan over.

Edited by greybing
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I enjoy snow but I'm certainly not viewing this spell as a treat. It's a diabolical, abysmal spell of tediously dull and depressing rubbish. A spectacular flop.

The temperature has not gone below 0C here since the early hours of Thursday morning which is ridiculous given uppers of -10C. It's just a joke of a cold spell. I have snow lying at the moment but that is left over from last Monday/Tuesday and it looks horrible. Since then there has only been the odd flurry with thawing exceeding any further accumulation. Much of the more central parts of the city have no lying snow at allPosted Image

This is the second sunless slate grey weekend in succession. It's grim and the worst winter cold spell I've ever experienced. Can't wait for it to end but it looks like even worse to come before that happens.

I got three frosts during the mild Christmas and New Year period, including -1C on New Year's morning following a max of 10.5C the previous day, yet the past three days have not seen one frost despite the temperature not exceeding 3C. It's pathetic and proof that easterlies are no longer capable of delivering the proper cold, snowy spells that they could bring in the pastPosted Image

I think Richard the problem for your area has been the lack of Atlantic/Greenland heights which bring northerlies to the UK, this spell has not been easterly, it's really been a continental South Easterly and I can't imagine that ever being decent for Aberdeen.

The disappoint for me from this spell is that most significant snowfalls that haven't thawed quickly have usually been followed by some clear nights and sunny days, whereas with this it's now been full cloud cover for 5 consecutive days.

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Been great for me, but yeah it has been unusually grey, no clear skies at all here, but have seen snow falling and sticking mostly for 5 days in a row, so better really

0pposite to normal, the next time sun shines is likely when mild mush arrives, although real mild mush dosent arrive until monday

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No appreciable snow this winter unlike seemingly everywhere else.We here have had a couple of 2cm coverings which lasted not very long and this is so galling when places quite widely have had many inches of the stuff.Currently watching the slow thaw of a very patchy thin snow cover ,ah well,moan over.

Yep, same here.

Finally, it snowed most of the day last Friday but was completely gone by the morning..

Another couple of inches on Saturday evening but more or less thawed out by Sunday morning. Snowed all day yesterday but didn't lie. Sleet in the evening. Sleet all day today but light dribblly rain from 5 pm. Snow completely gone now.

.

This is very similar to Feb. 2009 when places not too far away from here had loads of the stuff and we had very little.

I'll be glad when this one ends

The intense anticipation and then nothing is killing me

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