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Just wondering if we had model watching and forums like this around during the 62/63 winter. if it would have actually spoiled the experience of that winter? There must have been many occasions when models would have been predicting massive breakdowns of cold, Lots people would have been stuck in front of computer instead of being out enjoying the daily experience,

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A Great post in the model thread by snow drift about a sudden uk cooling, dont think i am stealing your ideas SD but i think we should call it SSC - Sudden surface cooling and should be a standard definition by meteorological outlets of a complete reversal of zonal winds at 0W between 50 and 60deg N at 1000mb!!!!!! CAN WE GET ONE SOON IS THE QUESTION!!!!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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I'm starting to get excited now about the possibilities of a major cold spell for dear old Blighty, some very cold runs now showing up for next weekend. We could be looking at sub zero daytime temps from next Saturday.

Edit; I'm still half asleep, I was referring to Saturday 19th in two weeks, a long way out but the trend is there.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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The thought of a cold, frosty period makes me happy, but the thought of having a snowless January makes me feel slightly sick if I'm honest with you. Just one snowfall will do, like January and February 2011 or February 2010.

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Snow would be nice for many of us but, if it's not forecast it's no use getting all upset, nowt we can do about it, the day the models don't forecast ANY weather thats the day to panic

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Been following various Weather forums on NW since last October and after the rapid change from "Beast from East" to "Pest from the West" in December it might be case of Groundhog Day again with models backing away from Scandi High on latest model runs.The difference from then and now is that the SSW and other factors will give us another crack of cold developing this time next week.Is a bit disappointing, but most experts weren't expecting serious cold starting till around 20th Jan anyway.Some of the well and far more knowledgeable experts than me have gone abot OTT tonight.Lets be honest,probably 90 per cent of posters want snow and after the latest ECM and GFS runs backing away cold to just seasonable weather,everyone is disappointed.Don't be.If we were to get a 10-14 day cold period with snow from late Jan -early Feb i for one would more than take it.People need to calm down a bit and remember the normal winter weather we get and put things in perspective.Good things come to those that wait!!

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The thought of a cold, frosty period makes me happy, but the thought of having a snowless January makes me feel slightly sick if I'm honest with you. Just one snowfall will do, like January and February 2011 or February 2010.

frosty weather is more common than people think, i don't know why people get happy over it when we could have had so much better Aka yesterday's ECM, unless of course we get ice days with hard frosts, but if its just regular 6c or 7c with frost at night that is tedious
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That is tedious in your opinion, and quite frankly I couldn't care less. Sunny days with frosty nights is a winner for me.

Edited by Aaron
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yeah it would be a winner if the charts were showing zonal then it upgraded to a high over the top of us, but thats not the case is it, so frost is mere consolation, compared to what the GFS and ECM showed yesterday, but of course i must put my rose tinted glasses on and say the charts will change again for the better

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Latest ECM still shows heights trying to build and push north its not all bad, it would be worse if some how it sunk and left the door open to westerly's or southwesterly's.

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Personally I've largely given up on anything snowy before mid-January but am quite hopeful that the stratospheric warming could bring something more substantial after midmonth- a spell of messy synoptics followed by a cold snowy spell, like around New Year 1985 or mid-December 2009, is far from out of the question. At present, though, anything post T+96 appears to be pretty speculative.

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Personally I've largely given up on anything snowy before mid-January but am quite hopeful that the stratospheric warming could bring something more substantial after midmonth- a spell of messy synoptics followed by a cold snowy spell, like around New Year 1985 or mid-December 2009, is far from out of the question. At present, though, anything post T+96 appears to be pretty speculative.

Personally I've largely given up on anything snowy before mid-January but am quite hopeful that the stratospheric warming could bring something more substantial after midmonth- a spell of messy synoptics followed by a cold snowy spell, like around New Year 1985 or mid-December 2009, is far from out of the question. At present, though, anything post T+96 appears to be pretty speculative.

When is your monthly forecast out please?

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I've for the most part managed to hold myself together throughout the dross of the last few weeks but if this next supposed port of call round about mid month and beyond fails to materialise well let's just say my patience will pushed fully to it's limits. I just don't really fancy the idea of pining any of my hopes on February again after last years farce for this neck of the woods.

I still stand by what I said here, if come mid month we're still chasing cold in depths of FI or worse there's nothing showing at all then that's it I'm done, no ifs or buts. I can only be pushed so far....
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http://www.theweathe...her/latest.aspx

Look at this weather forecast.....Doesn't seem that promising, oh the joys of living on the atlantic! Posted Image And it'll be the southwest that gets mild first if it does go the way the forecaster is suggesting.....Posted Image

I think Brian is summing up what the models are showing very well, I still favour the atlantic to win this round.
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Looks like the snow drought will go on this weekend now here with snow stalling just south west of here Saturday, any easterly brings flurries at best, Sundays shortwave will slide through Ireland probably and then high pressure topple in or suffer an easterly pfft, so done with this winter.

Why does it always have to end up bone dry here, if it was rain the heaviest would be right over us.

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