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Hmmmm....models looking pretty dire at the moment, just a succession of depressions wheeling there way across the British Isles with milder and less mild and plenty of rain theme. Too soon to write off winter but all too often when we see the jet stream powered up it can take weeks for some sort of let up. So in general nothing to shout about up till the early New Year.

As for the Teleconnection signals for this winter...dreadful.

Agreed.

Why couldn't the models have been like last spring ?

It's rubbish.

When I think of classic real winters like 78/79 or 81/82,, without even mentioning 62/63

Even the Net weather winter forecast appears to have been badly out

Edited by Peter H
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Christmas Day 1995 still stands as my favourite Christmas Day weatherwise (just edging out Christmas Day 2010) for at Cleadon I was well-placed to catch the heavy and frequent snow showers that ran down the east coast of England that day, started the day with about 3cm on the ground (from a decaying polar low on Christmas Eve) and ended it with about 8cm. Christmas Day 2010 had a deeper covering there (11cm) but no more than the odd flurry.

However, snow showers were rather less widespread in inland areas on Christmas Day 1995 than was originally forecast, even on the evening before by the looks of it, so some will have ended up disappointed.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Yep, '95 and 2010 were good here too. Almost a foot of lying snow on Christmas day is unheard of, but the winter of 2010/11 ended on Boxing Day. January 2011 had a few frosty days, but the rest of the winter was mild, especially February, which was very strange. 2009/10 was a much better winter overall, in my opinion.

We've had no snow of any sort since December 2010, which is really quite a long time without the white stuff.

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Looking at GFS and ECM both indicate we will be well into Jan without any signs of any cold weather. Playing with the CFS indicates a mostly zonal outlook throughout Jan with only the briefest of pauses so again looks snow free. The signs of hope are in the Stratosphere watch thread and even then there's no guarantee that any block will be in the right place. At the moment for Jan the odds seem to be slightly in favour of another Snow free month for us.

Well at least the sun is out today which is nice and pleasant.

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I want snow or at least a huge windstorm not rain and just'windy'

Show us what you've got, for pete sake!!

Why do we always luck out...especially in the southwest?!

For the record...I am not paying ANYMORE attention to long range weather forecasts, most have been extremely wrong and they can shove they're excuses as to why it didn't pan out like they said where the sun doesn't shine...I remember reading one long range forecast that said mild and very wet especially southwest but I can't remember which website...they were spot on!!

At least if the long range forecast for next winter points to a mild wet one we should all dust the sledges off!!!! Lol

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Indeed it has been confirmed to us this year that lrf's are a complete waste of time, something most of us have known for years anyway. Though the Met Office 16-30 day outlook is not without some value.

Zonal for my location is fun because we can at least get some wind storms.

As for the high moving in over the new year with a southwesterly wind...............sorry but the stuff of nightmares imo.

I do undertand the point of view that places need to dry out though.

Lesson to be learnt really is mild winters are the norm and the '09 and '10 Winters were most likely 1 in a 100 type occurences

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Us summer lovers have been waiting six years for anything decent that end of the year. It was only 10 months ago we (in Nottingham) had the last 'decent' snowfall (Feb) or Dec 2010 for everyone else (but not here with it being just cold & dry) so it hasn't really been _that_ long... If we're still in the same boat in 2016 then its time to really moan http://forum.nwstatic.co.uk//public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.png

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Becoming very clear there is zero prospect of snow for most out until the 2nd week of Jan at the earliest.

I honestly thought this winter would be much better than last year but low and behold still waiting for the 1st flake here,and none on the horizon.

fed upsville.

It's funny because even I in Liverpool saw some lying snow last December which was milder than this month - and this month I have not seen a single flake of snow falling at all - and that is not just the case in Liverpool but also in parts of the country who see snow more frequently than we do - even Scotland have not seen much snow at all.

Even here in Liverpool (in which it is difficult to get snow on the ground) it is unusual to go though an entire winter season without any snow at all - normally we do get lying snow at least once during the winter season.

Luke

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Not had a snowfall here since December 2010 either, just a few slushy wet flakes is about the best we've had. So 2 years since I saw lying snow, we better get something this winter! Very unusual to go 2-3 years without a good snowfall here, we normally get at least good snow event a year.

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cant help but felling we are in the same boat as last winter with a monster PV sitting in eastern canada firing low after lows at us.last winter was one of the mildest on record for this area from december to march my area only got 2 days of snowfall in early december yes even at 1000ft asl this winter looks identacal.the seasons are definitely changing in march we had temps at 23c but in june and july the temps got barely above 14c with non stop rain.the models are strongly hinting of 8-10c uppers heading our way in early january we never got uppers like that in june or july for instace the temps here today are 9c yes 1000ft asl and could well reach 13c in a weeks time and to make thing worse i have not seen one glimpse of the sun for 3 weeks now and doesnt look likely i will see it for the next 3 weeks either for my area

Edited by igloo
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Models for the next two weeks look rubbish. Mild southwesterlies on the back of a dreaded bartlett high all the way until January 13th, almost the halfway stage for this winter. Clearly the weather is in a real rut, unfortunately. Once it gets like this it really is hard to change, especially when it extends quite a bit into Europe as well. Next week looks particularly mild and almost spring like

What a stinker this one has turned out to be, yet again.. More like continuous spring rather than winter.

I wish people would stop issuing wildly innacurate winter forecasts. At least the Met Office have had the sense to give uip.

Edited by Peter H
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I wish people would stop issuing wildly innacurate winter forecasts. At least the Met Office have had the sense to give uip.

Long-range forecasts aren't meant to be taken as gospel. Anyone who does so is a fool.
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And I can't actually remember how we got into this mess, December was doing okay until the 14th.

Indeed, while the very cold air was just to the East I did live in hope.However, that's gone now so I'm not optomistic.

Edited by Peter H
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Long-range forecasts aren't meant to be taken as gospel. Anyone who does so is a fool.

Long-range forecasts aren't meant to be taken as gospel. Anyone who does so is a fool.

Indeed, but it fills you with a false sense of optomism at the start of the season.

When nothing materialises it does make you feel very despondent.

I'd have a look again at the Net Weather winter forecast just to see how badly wrong it was.

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ugh what ugly charts, though im not surprised, the azores high hasn't been around much since last winter so it was due at some point, as its a common synoptic, we had loads of blocking this year, did anyone honestly expect it to still be carrying on now, if we were getting these charts in late feb i would welcome it but not in the middle of winter, it could not happen at a worse time, ah well i suspect high ground in the north will get a pasting in march or april like they did this year, snow in march and april is overrated esp down south. can't remember many times where i have seen lots of snow in those months

thats me being negative, me being positive is hoping this SSW delivers brutal cold for us, but i generally am not a part of the blind faith brigade

also i would like to say im not writing of winter, but if we have to wait till late feb for snow, that won't really make a winter will it, this years early feb cold spell was good for some parts but most people still said it was a crap winter

if only the days were longer i could start my crops 2 months early, they won't die if it stays like this

Edited by Snowy Easterlies
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winter so far has been nothing but crap. Yes it was cold but cold with out snow doesnt do it for me. I enjoy all kind of weather how ever in winter i look forward to cold and snow. I know lot of peeps going for cold mid jan and feb i'm not convince, i hope i'm wrong getting fedup of this rain. Haven't seen any snow since feb and that wasn't much to sing about ither for this part of brum anyway.

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