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The Winter emotions and moaning thread


bobbydog

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

@Fendermaestro...of course it is dangerous but I am young and enjoy the snow and think it's magical....I do not enjoy all the rain that comes with the mild weather you talk that brings wind and rain that drowns people and ruins livlihoods, also mjild weather in winter does not kill bugs which as I am SURE you understand is not very benificial to the elderly people you care....

Yes well I'm not too stupid and have a job that I can walk to even in bad weather so I don't have that to use as an excuse for a snow day!!!

the elderly are most at risk in very cold weather not just because of cold, but flu and colds spread easier in cold weather,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12808-cold-weather-really-does-spread-flu.html

I may be in a minority here but I welcome this upcoming milder spell, this cold weather is boring the hell out of me, roll on spring/ summer and the big showers/cloudscapes/ thunderstorms

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

EDIT: Just to add that perhaps us cold lovers shouldn't feel too dispondent as it's not as if the hot summer lovers have had much joy during the last 5 years!

trouble is alot of people who love cold weather are the same people who also enjoy hot weather in the summer
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Well, I think we can pretty much give up on seeing anything remotely cold for the next 7 days at least, and the various runs just keep getting worse and worse from a cold lovers point of view.

I really can't see how were going to find a way out of it for at least 2 weeks tbh, taking us past Xmas and who knows we might have to endure a whole month of this tosh.

On the upside I saw a Sun Dog today, which I'm taking as a good sign especially given the date 12/12/12 ...should have made me a little wish.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Personally I think this more Atlantic spell we'll soon all be experiencing will see out December, it looks like the jet stream will be westerly and eventually south westerly, only positive spin I can put on it is that the Russian High will (in a weeks time) shoot it's bolt and we'll see a more mobile flow from the Atlantic and hopefully in turn see some heights to the NW or maybe even eventually a slacking off cyclogenesis and maybe more strong ridging either to Greenland or to the north of the UK. Just hope now the floodgates are about to open it doesn't take weeks and weeks out of the winter which can so easily happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

trouble is alot of people who love cold weather are the same people who also enjoy hot weather in the summer

I suppose but at least we've had three good winters out of the last five!

Personally I think this more Atlantic spell we'll soon all be experiencing will see out December, it looks like the jet stream will be westerly and eventually south westerly, only positive spin I can put on it is that the Russian High will (in a weeks time) shoot it's bolt and we'll see a more mobile flow from the Atlantic and hopefully in turn see some heights to the NW or maybe even eventually a slacking off cyclogenesis and maybe more strong ridging either to Greenland or to the north of the UK. Just hope now the floodgates are about to open it doesn't take weeks and weeks out of the winter which can so easily happen.

This is it. Many times in the past people have wanted a reset to the pattern hoping to see heights develop to the north west but often this just hasn't happened and instead like you say we get weeks and weeks of winter taken up by the zonal train. With the grim outlook up to and beyond Xmas and many seasonal models singing from the same hymn sheet and going for southerly blocking over the next few months, I think it's likely we'll see a zonal theme dominate most of the winter period. I'm even starting to wonder if the flurry I had last week was my snowfall for winter 2012/13!

I am absolutely staggered how the output has changed in 7 days I really am. Just think back to this time last week when we had that sensational ECM 12Z run to where we are now!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

lol oh i see the Mayan theory Posted Image

On seconds thoughts I'm starting think this is less likely now, the weather gods won't make things that easy for us, no doubt they'll allow us cold and snow lovers to continue suffering for years to come lol Edited by Anonymous21
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

I suppose but at least we've had three good winters out of the last five!

This is it. Many times in the past people have wanted a reset to the pattern hoping to see heights develop to the north west but often this just hasn't happened and instead like you say we get weeks and weeks of winter taken up by the zonal train. With the grim outlook up to and beyond Xmas and many seasonal models singing from the same hymn sheet and going for southerly blocking over the next few months, I think it's likely we'll see a zonal theme dominate most of the winter period. I'm even starting to wonder if the flurry I had last week was my snowfall for winter 2012/13!

I am absolutely staggered how the output has changed in 7 days I really am. Just think back to this time last week when we had that sensational ECM 12Z run to where we are now!

Yeah agreed on your thoughts - basically we weren't getting anywhere with the synoptics we are about to experience (end of this week and next week) and even if there was a form of undercutting that Siberian High the Atlantic looks just too strong for any strong ridge to retrogress and would only be transitory at best, so unfortunately a reset is probably for the best (like the way I'm talking as if the weather is a computer).

What's more annoying about the favourable SST's and Teleconnections, SSW etc for this month all going down the swanny basically through such a small feature as a short wave which really wasn't modelled at all until 5/6 days before hand - Steve Murr for one was dismayed about it and it's not the first time or the last time we will see such a small feature ruin a cold outlook.

Fingers crossed for the New Year!

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Not holding out much hope for the rest of December now. What a horrid pattern the modelling has us in. However,can't say as I'm surprised at what is being shown; I just wish we hadn't been teased by those charts a week ago!

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Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire

any chance they could turn colder as quickas its going to turn milder?

what you got to remember the models will always be a step behind mother nature never the other way round
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Not holding out much hope for the rest of December now. What a horrid pattern the modelling has us in. However,can't say as I'm surprised at what is being shown; I just wish we hadn't been teased by those charts a week ago!

Exactly that made it all the worse really! Ian Ferguson has also commented on the Met Office seasonal model being in agreement with other seasonal models pointing towards a broadly zonal winter. Tut.....

I'm now reminicsing about this time three years ago!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

any chance they could turn colder as quickas its going to turn milder?

The only chance we have is if we have a signifant warming up in the strat soon which has been as a possibility for new year period and even then that doesn't guarantee anything. I just hope we don't end up being put in a situation like last winter where we had rely on February to produce because I'm rather dubious whether it will if it comes to that. Edited by Anonymous21
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Exactly that made it all the worse really! Ian Ferguson has also commented on the Met Office seasonal model being in agreement with other seasonal models pointing towards a broadly zonal winter. Tut.....

Yes I was going to mention that. Agreement between them on a mild, zonal winter unfortunately. People keep saying that they're not reliable but when you have pretty much a full house of models going for this scenario it must have some credence.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Yes I was going to mention that. Agreement between them on a mild, zonal winter unfortunately. People keep saying that they're not reliable but when you have pretty much a full house of models going for this scenario it must have some credence.

It really is a shame, especially as earlier in the Autumn the majority including the Met Office were pointing towards a cold blocked winter, although i believe the ECM has been consistent since September with a mild zonal outlook. People say how poor last winter was and I know it was for some western areas and Ireland, but I feel this winter could be worse than last for southern and eastern areas. You mentioned that a SSW could de-rail these seasonal outlooks? I thinks that's our only hope.

EDIT: I think the CFS v2 was also consistent in pointing towards a zonal set up? I think this model is better than some think!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate suits me very fine.
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.

Il tell you what really annoys me is Tv weather men/women thinking everyone hates cold weather. " Your be glad to hear this is the last of the cold frosty mornings" i just heard the presenter on BBC breakfast say, Really left trouser leges me off when people moan about cold, when in reality even this cold is very mild compared to other places this far north as the Uk. Posted Image .

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I like looking at frosty mornings but walking to work on black ice I don't enjoy. If it going to be cold dump some snow as that's easier to walk on.

Anyway it's looking like the first Snow free December since 2002 here so pretty pathetic winter so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I'm not for one minute saying winters over, but I feel we'll be searching fro crumbs of comfort for the rest of this winter with regards to any cold. The zonal train is gathering momentum and the PV looks like it will be back from it's holidays very soon, the best I think we can hope for is a few Northerly topplers and maybe something longer towards the back end of February/March.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

That post suggests to me that winter is over. Nobody can say anything like that with any amount of confidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Just when you thought the charts couldn't get any worse from a cold and snow lovers point of view....the 00z GFS and ECM rolls out ...and ...well let's face it, it doesn't look good does it ?.

In desperation I have looked at the CFS run ...AND I CAN'T EVEN FIND A SINGLE DAY on that model either that is good for cold and snow...someone wake me up in the next solar minimum please

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Posted
  • Location: Bedford
  • Location: Bedford

Il tell you what really annoys me is Tv weather men/women thinking everyone hates cold weather. " Your be glad to hear this is the last of the cold frosty mornings" i just heard the presenter on BBC breakfast say, Really left trouser leges me off when people moan about cold, when in reality even this cold is very mild compared to other places this far north as the Uk. Posted Image .

yeah it annoys me too, esp when they have a big smile on there face when they say mild weather is on the way, but tv forecasts are for joe public and most hate cold and snow or not like it as much as us weather freaks
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Just when you thought the charts couldn't get any worse from a cold and snow lovers point of view....the 00z GFS and ECM rolls out ...and ...well let's face it, it doesn't look good does it ?.

In desperation I have looked at the CFS run ...AND I CAN'T EVEN FIND A SINGLE DAY on that model either that is good for cold and snow...someone wake me up in the next solar minimum please

It's starting to feel like we have gone back to 2006! I wouldn't be at all suprised to record temps of 13/14C over the Xmas period.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanwell, west London
  • Location: Hanwell, west London

I think some people on here need to give themselves a good bang on the head. It's December 13! How can you possibly predict what the rest of winter will hold? How many times do long-range forecasts go wrong - pretty often, yet people are now saying the rest of winter is going to be mild! It's like self-harm on these theads sometimes. Bedsides, even IN zonal winters there is potential for short spells of cold, snowy weather.

What do people want - a three-month countrywide freeze? Chasing the impossible dream.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Yes I was going to mention that. Agreement between them on a mild, zonal winter unfortunately. People keep saying that they're not reliable but when you have pretty much a full house of models going for this scenario it must have some credence.

The same models that predicted a BBQ summer in 2009. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Yes I was going to mention that. Agreement between them on a mild, zonal winter unfortunately. People keep saying that they're not reliable but when you have pretty much a full house of models going for this scenario it must have some credence.

These models were showing colder than average conditions not long ago! Sorry to say but the quality of posting on here is garbage recently. Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

Dont believe in the models. They dont work well at times of maximum and minimum insolation.....thats now and around the summer solstice too! ;)

Even the Met Office fall for the models....they should know better.

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