The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[syed2878]

well guys charts 240-300h don't get me excited. The only reason peeps arnt liking the weather outlook winter forecast is because they not going for a siberian winter. Also i think peeps shouldnt foreget that we r in the u.k and not the arctic, i hope i dont afend any1 with my post im a coldy too and i would love to c a harsh winter.

[Bradowl]

I don't take charts for more than five days away all that seriously.

Been let down far too often over years.

Apart for higher parts further North I don't see anything to get excited about this coming week at moment.

[Liam J]

I do think a lot of people have unreal expectations considering we are in the UK where it certainly isn't commonplace to experience very long & harsh winters, but it's not impossible to see a more prolonged spell of severe wintry weather as the last few years have shown - 09/10 & 10/11 (exceptional) but we also had to endure a very sorry end to winter that year! It is as if many now expect something of a similar magnitude to occur each winter, which is very unlikely but again not impossible!

It does seem like we've been chasing cold cynoptics for weeks now, with a few folk having egg on faces..... Some fantastic teasing charts in FI at times but sadly they never manage to creep closer towards us, always post T240+ where the real awesome charts reside - more often than not during winter here on NW thats the only place they'll likely stay.

I'd love a very cold & snowy period (soon if possible) but, until the time I see these charts well within T144 pref T96 then I'll accept that the chances of them actually happening are very slim indeed and not really not worth getting excited or worked up about.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Liam J

[syed2878]

hardly supprising though liam when some people r going for 2010 sinoptics from charts wich r 240-300h out now i would give those charts lesthan 1percent chance of coming off. I hope im wrong, mor to the point if i go on talking like this when those charts comes off it wil be a nice supprise.

[AWD]

I do think a lot of people have unreal expectations considering we are in the UK where it certainly isn't commonplace to experience very long & harsh winters, but it's not impossible to see a more prolonged spell of severe wintry weather as the last few years have shown - 09/10 & 10/11 (exceptional) but we also had to endure a very sorry end to winter that year! It is as if many now expect something of a similar magnitude to occur each winter, which is very unlikely but again not impossible!

It does seem like we've been chasing cold cynoptics for weeks now, with a few folk having egg on faces..... Some fantastic teasing charts in FI at times but sadly they never manage to creep closer towards us, always post T240+ where the real awesome charts reside - more often than not during winter here on NW thats the only place they'll likely stay.

I'd love a very cold & snowy period (soon if possible) but, until the time I see these charts well within T144 pref T96 then I'll accept that the chances of them actually happening are very slim indeed and not really not worth getting excited or worked up about.

I agree with you about expectations. Some people expectations are unreal. Anything but what they want & its disastrous.

We have had a good start to winter & continue to have a reasonable forecast into mid month IMO.

After that it is anyone's guess. A lot of hopes being pinned on an easterly of epic per portions later in the month. I got a feeling some people are going to be very disappointed.

[camperstron]

I think one of the best things about living in the UK is that we can never really know what the weather is going to do. Regardless of the charts, the season etc curve balls are always thrown due to our geography.

IMHO (and experience) the best UK snow events/winters are the ones that pop up out of nowhere. It's reassuring (for us coldies) to see that the data suggests we may have a colder than average winter - but we can't say how that will pan out.

If we all knew that from November to February we were guaranteed 3 foot of snow EVERY YEAR we'd get bored. This annual rollercoaster is what makes winter fun. But we do need to keep a sense of perspective and keep our winter toys in our insulated prams.

[shedhead]

No shortage of 'jam tomorrow' charts again this morning, but in the reliable timeframe there remains little to get over exited about snow wise, unless you live high up on hills in the north.

[Tony Beets]

Dear me!!! What the heck do people want??? Some brilliant charts showing on most of the models now and all I've seen this morning on the model thread is moaning!!!! Some people are never happy, if it was snowing they would be on here crying about how long it would last and not enjoy it!! Get a grip the COLD IS Already here.

P.s please don't clutter up the model output with all that rubbish about what you think might happen do that on here or the chat page!! Moan over!

[shedhead]

06 again tries desperately to build heights in the right place to deliver a significant cold spell, but again it fails to do so and defaults back to the less cold NW'erly flow, which is now starting to look far more likely than a sustained E'erly.

[UV-RAY]

Some fantastic looking charts coming into range now however I'm not an Easterly fan. I recall all the Easterlies during the 80s and not one of them delivered anything in the way of snow until they broke down, so here's hoping to an Easterly that delivers more than cold, raw and cloudy days IMBY.

[Great Plum]

Some fantastic looking charts coming into range now however I'm not an Easterly fan. I recall all the Easterlies during the 80s and not one of them delivered anything in the way of snow until they broke down, so here's hoping to an Easterly that delivers more than cold, raw and cloudy days IMBY.

1987 didn't deliver for you then?

[kate1]

GP's latest thoughts in the MOD thread make for interesting reading - he is saying (and has said all along) that the most prolonged cold is going to come a little later, in January. Think we all have to be patient for a bit longer - anything cold in December is a bonus, anything white from the sky even more so - as long as we get at least one big dumping in January, I for one will be very happy!

[UV-RAY]

1987 didn't deliver for you then?

Unfortunately not, 78/79 was probably the only time I can remember when an Easterly did the business.

[shedhead]

Unfortunately not, 78/79 was probably the only time I can remember when an Easterly did the business.

The problem with Easterly derived snow is it can be all or nothing, but if you get the 'all' it can be spectacular and the bonus is temps generally remain sub zero in the wake of the snow, unlike many events from the north or northwest. I remember the blizzard (and it was a true blizzard not just a bit of snow and wind) around New Year 78/79, despite hours of snow much of the land was still green due to the strength of the wind, but the drifting was unbelieve. As far as the Channel Low was concerned it would have been impossible to draw a better chart for cold and snow, it was staggering and probably a 1 in 50, maybe even a 1 in 100 year event. I feel very lucky to have both witnessed it and enjoyed it.

[SnowObsessor90]

One thing is for sure if the second bite of cherry does end up going bottom up with us being putting put in a milder flow and ruling out the best part of December(which cannot be ruled out even if the current signals mostly point towards cold) then my patience will be all but up with models and any wintry prospects in general at least for a few weeks.

Hopefully it won't come to that though.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Richard2901]

Some fantastic looking charts coming into range now however I'm not an Easterly fan.

Same here - I despise easterlies. They are revolting. If I see any easterlies in the model output I hope and pray that they disappear as I loath the featureless overcast, drizzle and static temperatures they bring.

Any time we get easterlies these days they often result in a daily mean above average as it barely goes any lower at night than the raw 4-6C maxes achieved during the day.

The period 11th - 28th January 2010 perfectly sums up how detestable easterlies are. There were only two sunny days and one air frost during that 18 day spell of easterly dross and that only came about as the wind temporarily switched to a westerly around the 17th/18th.

[TAFKAP]

Here are some emotions and moaning, as this thread requires. Having a read through the mod thread at the moment is a case of having to sift through huge piles of crap to find the few jewels of wisdom worth reading. Might I say what a bunch of childish, pathetic infants seem to post that thread. The level of pre-adoloscent petulance and infantile toy throwing is truly a sight to behold. Ironically the half-wits doing this either have about the same level of weather knowledge as my cat and have expectations so high that they must think we live in Oymyakon (no doubt the morons will need to look that up). I'd like to name the band of idiots but don't fancy getting banned. Also I want to make it clear that there are many good model thread posters, it is just the window lickers seem to be out in force at the moment.

[TAFKAP]

I'm not going to identify anyone but just thought I'd share one of the ridiculous model thread posts I've seen. Thought you might fancy a laugh at a truly pathetic and childish individual. Someone needs to grow up and stop being such an infant.

"Try living down in the south then maybe your opinion would be different. Yes you saw snow yesterday but most of the country DID NOT.

Two weeks ago the models were showing along with other strong signals the UK to be in an easterly flow by now bringing frequent snow showers to the East and SE.

Today? Nothing of the sort.

Every good looking chart is in la la land whether you like it or not - so yes it's perfectly acceptable for folk to get frustrated. Certainly not as you say tedious."

[shedhead]

Models step back once again this morning, in fact finding any 'jam tomorrow' charts is looking increasingly difficult at this stage. Synoptically though this is a complex situation and it's perhaps no wonder the models continue to struggle with a clear path forward, so hope in a decent cold spells still exists via the background signals.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The earlier "easterly" runs were suggesting an east to north-easterly type at 7+ days out with sunshine and snow showers (perhaps marginal near the east coast) but this morning's runs have shown a clear step towards a dry cloudy south-easterly scenario. It is often fiendishly difficult to get the Scandinavian blocking high to ridge far enough west, with enough low pressure development to the south, to give us an E'ly rather than SE'ly. For this reason I am a much bigger fan of Greenland blocking than Scandinavian blocking- when the winds are from the NW/N/NE, at least if it isn't snowy, chances are it will be sunny and dry rather than dull and dry.

Of course nothing is finalised yet- we do still have the ECMWF operational run sending in an ENE flow- but the trend is notable.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[shedhead]

The earlier "easterly" runs were suggesting an east to north-easterly type at 7+ days out with sunshine and snow showers (perhaps marginal near the east coast) but this morning's runs have shown a clear step towards a dry cloudy south-easterly scenario. It is often fiendishly difficult to get the Scandinavian blocking high to ridge far enough west, with enough low pressure development to the south, to give us an E'ly rather than SE'ly. For this reason I am a much bigger fan of Greenland blocking than Scandinavian blocking- when the winds are from the NW/N/NE, at least if it isn't snowy, chances are it will be sunny and dry rather than dull and dry.

Very much agree TWS...both GFS and ECM have a propensity to develop Easterlies at T+168hrs and beyond with what looks like relatively clean evolutions, which is the main reason why we always seem to be chasing them 'carrot and stick' stylee. Once inside this timeframe we frequently see them back away towards a more SSE/SE flow, more often than not due to pressure not falling sufficiently to the S and SW, not irronially pressure failing to rise sufficiently to our N and NE. On the plus side this evolution should still plunge much of Europe into the freezer though, so hopefully developments further down the line will enable us to tap that more easily.

EDIT: The 06 GFS is starting to suggest that those who get emotionally strung out by the models should probably consider taking a break, because the Atlantic is fighting back big time...

Edited December 4, 2012 by shedhead

[Mark Neal.]

Moaning Thread:- Shortwaves- Nuff Said!!

[joggs]

Whos to say that what the models are showing now post 144 hrs will come to fruition?, lets face it these easterlies never make it so i doubt the latest output past 144 will be true.

[shedhead]

Moaning Thread:- Shortwaves- Nuff Said!!

They are the bane of cold lovers life Mark, always have been and probably always will be! The transition to any winter Easterly has almost always included a period of shortwave drama, but the bottom line is until the eye candy synoptics show up inside T+120hrs and ideally inside T+72hrs it really is best to assume it won't happen, otherwise you are likely to be disappointed/frustrated 9 times out of 10 and probably 19 times out of 20.

[UV-RAY]

I'm still far from convinced we'll see an Easterly within the next 10 days and even then I expect the usual cold, raw and grey conditions to prevail. The NH Synoptics may look fantastic, but that still means zilch for this tiny island with regards to an Easterly. I think after Xmas when we see the effects of any strat warming, will be the time for any deep cold.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Seven of Nine