The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[Polar Maritime]

Well, I think most of the regular visitors know my emotions.

Hows this for one....this Winter is going to SUCK if you are looking for cold and snow, and I'll be only too happy to eat my words come March / April.

I think this Winter will be the mildest since 2007/2008 , dominated by High pressure to the South of the UK, the Azores High will set up shop, shift around from time to time, it will be wet, windy and god damn awful for anything remotely cold and snowy, give or take a few topplers and just maybe we'll get lucky and it'll have a sting in it's tail.

So are you saying it's "going to" ?

Or are you just having "thought's" ?

Nobody knows really.

Edited November 10, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Chris D]

Yes, i am not having a dig, i am all for free speech, its just that i think even this time last year it was too early to write off, it would have only needed a few hundred miles shift North in the wavelength pattern (feb) and we would have had an 87 on our hands, no one could have been that precise at 3 months, GP came closest, best LRF ive ever seen from the best LR forecaster ive ever seen, as explained in vid, no overriding signals for a strong jet this year.

Fair enough, yes GP did come close last year, although I think just the last part let him down I think, it was suppose to be a bit colder? Although we did have that much colder spell in Feb, so I suppose that is good enough! Haha, but yes, for a LRF that is astonishing.

And yes, all is open for the jet this Winter...although I think GP's forecast is right on the money this time. However, complicated situation evolving, so who knows.

Time will tell I suppose!

Edited November 10, 2012 by Chris D

[feb1991blizzard]

Fair enough, yes GP did come close last year, although I think just the last part let him down I think, it was suppose to be a bit colder? Although we did have that much colder spell in Feb, so I suppose that is good enough! Haha, yes for a LRF that is astonishing.

And yes, all is open for the jet this Winter...although I think GP's forecast is right on the money this time. However, complicated situation evolving, so who knows.

Time will tell I suppose!

Thing is i will go with the form horse, maybe a tweak or two but GP has never been wrong in winter yet, not spectacularly anyway, i will put up a forecast in late Nov, based on what the experts say, i will leave it until Nov 30 though, more chance of nailing Dec that way!!

[Floatylight]

I just cant understand how people use the words 'will be' and 'going to' regarding whats going to happen with the weather so far out?

I will admit i am rubbish at reading charts.

And do read all the information i can from members on here.

Anybody who uses these words no matter if they talking mild or cold i am just going to ignore.

unless they are that good they can give me tonights lotto numbers.

The last post i read in the mod thread was a prime example.

Yes i would be very happy at the prospect of some snow as i take my girls out in it and we have a smashing time.

So yeh i do get excited when i read there are some possible signs we might get some.

But the real excitment is when i see it falling,untill then i will just wait and wonder.

[Aaron]

This winter is looking good! Greenland high is stubborn.

UGH I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad winter is over, barlett high will rule.

Nevermind the Met mentioned wintry showers over northern hills.. winter is back on!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well, I think most of the regular visitors know my emotions.

Hows this for one....this Winter is going to SUCK if you are looking for cold and snow, and I'll be only too happy to eat my words come March / April.

I think this Winter will be the mildest since 2007/2008 , dominated by High pressure to the South of the UK, the Azores High will set up shop, shift around from time to time, it will be wet, windy and god damn awful for anything remotely cold and snowy, give or take a few topplers and just maybe we'll get lucky and it'll have a sting in it's tail.

Ian Brown?????????? by the way where is he, Nov certainly all mild (unless ecmwf model has a new trend developing of an inversion setup) but hopefully cold before Xmas

[Liam J]

Well the stratosphere temperature is near record minimum atm and continues to cool. Now I don't no all to much about the exact science & impact this may have have, however, what I have learned is that prolonged cold weather is much more unlikely to occur with the strat currently behaving like it is?

Edited November 10, 2012 by Liam J

[bobbydog]

it will be mild for at least the next three weeks until the ridge moves into greenland. low pressure will slip south giving us a cool north easterly flow with a little snow on northern hills, feeling a bit chilly everywhere for a week or so. then the ridge will break through the vortex, opening up a cross-polar flow, which will become stuck in position until february. snow cover will advance rapidly over northern europe and the trans-siberian express will give the whole of the UK, relentless snow for 2 months.....

if carlsberg did weather forecasts.....

[AderynCoch]

No sign of any snow here either. Harumph.

[EML Network]

?

Is this based on anything other than pessimism?

Nope, it's based on reverse Psychology,If I expect the worse, then everything is a bonus.

I should remember not to come on here and post when I am a wee bit tipsy and in a bad mood.

My main reasoning behind my thoughts are due to the sheer number of times since about May, that I have thought to myself "If ONLY we were seeing this during the Winter" , and because the NAO has been in a negative phase for so long now, we all know that eventually at some point it'll tip back into a persistent + phase, because that's what the NAO does, this added to the fact that we have had HLB for such a long period of time, and take al those together and I guess I just feel that things are bound to tip the other way, which we are starting to see the signs of already.

[snowstorm445]

Nope, it's based on reverse Psychology,If I expect the worse, then everything is a bonus.

I should remember not to come on here and post when I am a wee bit tipsy and in a bad mood.

My main reasoning behind my thoughts are due to the sheer number of times since about May, that I have thought to myself "If ONLY we were seeing this during the Winter" , and because the NAO has been in a negative phase for so long now, we all know that eventually at some point it'll tip back into a persistent + phase, because that's what the NAO does, this added to the fact that we have had HLB for such a long period of time, and take al those together and I guess I just feel that things are bound to tip the other way, which we are starting to see the signs of already.

Fair enough. I suppose you won't be disappointed if the winter is a complete flop. Still, its nice to have a bit of optimism, because if the snow does finally turn up, you feel like a right fool having been negative beforehand.

My gut feeling is probably not to dissimilar from yours in that I expect this year to be mild (or at least above average overall), with some potent but not prolonged intermittent cold snaps. Of course, I'd do hope I am wrong, which I may easily be. In reality I have no clue what the rest of winter will hold but holding a moderate view will ensure you don't come out feeling let down.

The problem I have with some on this forum is that people are so vocal in their pessimism, and the hostility and general repulsion to even a hint of mild really baffles me. Yes, I agree, snow is lovely and leaves you with happy memories, and I'd have it every winter if I could, but it isn't the end of the world if it doesn't show up. Mild weather is hardly torturous and it is in fact fairly mundane when you think about it (except obviously for the windstorms), hence why its called "mild" as opposed to "extreme". We don't even really need snow, and its mainly an interest. Like most interests, if you can't do it (or if you don't witness it in this case), its disappointed, sometimes upsetting, but it doesn't ruin your life in any significant way. And its very likely that you will see it in the future

[SnowObsessor90]

Just had a look at some old Model threads from 2009 and just wow..., what I would give for a cold spell even half as good and prolonged as that one this winter. In reality however it's unlikely we'll see anything of the sort anytime soon if the rather ominous signs in the upper atmosphere continue unwavered at least not until late Dec/New year at the very earliest but I can always dream

Edited November 10, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Eskimo]

Developing S.A.D

[Jayces]

Currently drunk contemplating the ironing whilst I await my curry.........whatever emotion that us.

[Dorsetbred]

Currently drunk contemplating the ironing whilst I await my curry.........whatever emotion that us.

Dont leave the iron in one spot for too long Edited November 10, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Terminal Moraine]

Did anyone rate this easterly from December 1997?

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=omMQlzjufk0

5cm of snow from that, the only snowfall that month, and it couldn't even last until the following morning. A dismal month.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Im not getting to down we still got plenty of time yet for a bit of cold n snow

[Thundery wintry showers]

The problem I have with some on this forum is that people are so vocal in their pessimism, and the hostility and general repulsion to even a hint of mild really baffles me. Yes, I agree, snow is lovely and leaves you with happy memories, and I'd have it every winter if I could, but it isn't the end of the world if it doesn't show up. Mild weather is hardly torturous and it is in fact fairly mundane when you think about it (except obviously for the windstorms), hence why its called "mild" as opposed to "extreme". We don't even really need snow, and its mainly an interest. Like most interests, if you can't do it (or if you don't witness it in this case), its disappointed, sometimes upsetting, but it doesn't ruin your life in any significant way. And its very likely that you will see it in the future

I don't like the hostility towards the slightest hint of 'mild' either. I think it reflects a popular interest only in one or two types of weather, which is fine in itself, but I find it difficult when it is made clear that interest in other types of weather doesn't have a place in the discussion.

The sense of disappointment at not getting snow is a different matter though- it's like the disappointment most of us feel when we've been invited to a special event and have really looked forward to it, only for last-minute complications to prevent us from attending. The pain may be only short-lived but it can be pretty intense at the time of the setback. That's part of the reason why I advise against getting too carried away prior to a possible forthcoming snow event, for if expectations are initially high, then subsequent disappointment is often particularly high (and I've been bitten by this many times in the past).

[Aaron]

I like various types of weather - I just detest mild south-westerlies. Hate 'em. There are far more important things in life, and I won't spend my time worrying about it, but I really cannot express my hatred for mild winters strongly enough - I find them disgusting, ugly, boring and pointless. It's like people hating cold, wet summers and find them depressing - same for me with mild winters. A green and muddy Christmas is also very depressing.

Edited November 10, 2012 by Aaron

[bobbydog]

The sense of disappointment at not getting snow is a different matter though- it's like the disappointment most of us feel when we've been invited to a special event and have really looked forward to it, only for last-minute complications to prevent us from attending. The pain may be only short-lived but it can be pretty intense at the time of the setback. That's part of the reason why I advise against getting too carried away prior to a possible forthcoming snow event, for if expectations are initially high, then subsequent disappointment is often particularly high (and I've been bitten by this many times in the past).

well next time i get invited anywhere i won't get excited in case i can't go lol

[SnowObsessor90]

Last winter was the biggest sucker punch for me especially after the last few, when we had that brief Northerly toppler round about the 16th December I really thought that it would be a taster of better things to come later on in Jan/early Feb but as it happened that was the best we ended up getting.

Edited November 10, 2012 by Anonymous21

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I like various types of weather - I just detest mild south-westerlies. Hate 'em. There are far more important things in life, and I won't spend my time worrying about it, but I really cannot express my hatred for mild winters strongly enough - I find them disgusting, ugly, boring and pointless. It's like people hating cold, wet summers and find them depressing - same for me with mild winters. A green and muddy Christmas is also very depressing.

Im sure I saw on here you hate easterlies as well? surely fantastic for Leeds in winter? Dec 10, you must have had more snow than me? 9cms max around 2nd, then 8cms on 18th to 23rd

[Aaron]

Most easterlies from my experience do not deliver here. December 2010 was fantastic though. Then again, a few poor easterlies that only delivered for the SE have probably coloured my image permanently, and probably incorrectly.

Edited November 10, 2012 by Aaron

[Bumpkin]

The sense of disappointment at not getting snow is a different matter though- it's like the disappointment most of us feel when we've been invited to a special event and have really looked forward to it, only for last-minute complications to prevent us from attending. The pain may be only short-lived but it can be pretty intense at the time of the setback. That's part of the reason why I advise against getting too carried away prior to a possible forthcoming snow event, for if expectations are initially high, then subsequent disappointment is often particularly high (and I've been bitten by this many times in the past).

I think that comes with age and experience. When you don't see any proper snow for 12 years, you learn not to expect it and if it comes then that is a bonus.

[Liam J]

Winter is over

In March....

Edited November 11, 2012 by Liam J