The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[liam300]

Absolutely nothing!.

No need to panic yet then haha,

What made you come to this conclusion as the models are all over the place?

[Terminal Moraine]

No need to panic yet then haha,

What made you come to this conclusion as the models are all over the place?

I'm not sure why but we seem to be talking at cross purposes here. The point I was making was not related to the fluctuations of model output but the fact that there was only about 14 hours left before 0900 on the 31st of January, and that it seemed very unlikely that we would get any snow in that time, sufficient to give lying snow here.

And as it turns out I was correct as it's currently cloudy and bone dry with no hint of snow, so no days this January with lying snow here. for the first time since 1989.

[leicsnow]

I have a horrible feeling that the new Atlantic takeover pattern set for next week cooked up by the models is a new trend, which will probably verify....

If the Atlantic does completely take over indefinitely after the first week of February, I think I will call it a day this winter.

Edited January 31, 2012 by Tellow

[leicsnow]

Time to let off some steam...

All the eye candy from the weekend looks wasted, as it looks like we will be back to mild indefinitely from the weekend onwards, with no second chance. I actually wish the models hadn't gotten our hopes up predicting deep cold for the entire run, and then reverted completely to mild zonal again.

So it looks like I probably won't see any more lying snow this winter, so just one day with 2cm which melted by lunchtime. Some people completely snowless.

[A Winter's Tale]

Rubbish! Absolute rubbish! There are too many intricate details in model forecasting. We've barely started February and the background signals look good for Scandi Hi retrogression to Greenland. And there is a trend for heights in the mid atlantic and GP who you should be listening too is remaining very upbeat about February. Anyway, it's the weather - just get out there and enjoy what ever it throws at you. And a Big Freeze can be possible in March if that's what you're looking for. By the I'll be looking out for cold spells and more snowfalls aswell as days full of sunshine and frost, some rain, the last winds and the first heat. Then April, I'll look for a snowfall to add to my Snow Diary and then look for sunshine, showers and heat.

So I think February has a lot to offer and the Atlantic will stop eventually, Spring could be very wintry and our largest snow events can happen in March. 3 out of the last 6 winters have seen Scotland's best snow event happen in March. I would also be interested for something a bit more prolonged and interesting but really I'll be looking for Spring weather for this Spring and yes that includes snow (maybe lots of it) and aswell as lots of sunshine, frost, heat in second half and other interesting types.

[Richard2901]

The last 3 days has been the worst spell, by far, of this sorry excuse for a winter. It's gone from being windy, very sunny and dry with little frost or snow and low diurnal ranges to being windy, grey and drizzly with no frost or snow and no diurnal range at all .

In the past 24 hours there's been a 0.6C range in temps from 3.2C at 4:22pm this afternoon to 3.8C at 11:19pm last night and it's currently 3.5C Overnight min of 3.3C was the joint mildest in the past 12 days and it hasn't even dropped below 1C since this easterly garbage set in. More of the same horrible rubbish forecast for overnight and tomorrow.

January has been another complete write off as far as snow goes. A grand total of ZERO days with snow lying for a ridiculous 4th time in 7 years and about the 10th time since 1988. Before that it was practically unheard of to have no snow cover in January, occurring just twice in over 40 years (1964 and 1973).

Days with snow lying in January for the past 8 years with max depth in brackets:

2005: 1 (2cm)

2006: 0 (0cm)

2007: 2 (2cm)

2008: 0 (0cm)

2009: 0 (0cm)

2010: 16 (19cm)

2011: 1 (<1cm)

2012: 0 (0cm)

An appalling set of statistics which show, with one obvious exception, why January no longer deserves to be considered a winter month. Definitely the least snowy month between November and March these days

Edited January 31, 2012 by Richard2901

[Aaron]

Hurry up Spring, so I can catch a decent storm - winter is a dud.

[A Winter's Tale]

winter is a dud.

"Let's see how this winter has been doing at Glasgow Airport and comparing it to the all the winters that I can remember seeing:

First of all - let's see if we are in the longest cold snap of the winter so far!

* cold snap = max below 6c and min below 1 or 0c.

(Dec 4-6), (Dec 15-18), (Jan 13-16), (Jan 26-31....)

We've had 4 cold snaps this winter. That 31 days below average this winter without the other two or three single days below the average. We are now into Day 6 of a cold snap and the longest one this winter. Not exactly the best, the first one was the best for snow, the next one was equally good for snow and enjoyable for cold and the third was better for about as good as the second for cold.

Now let's see how this winter at Glasgow Airport has compared to previous winters since 1999/2000:

My Survey of official snow days in that time:

DECEMBER 1999: SNOWFALLS -7 (4th, 12th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (0/-8C)

JANUARY 2000: SNOWFALLS - 0 (HOWEVER I SAW SNOW THIS MONTH), COLDEST TEMP (2/-4C)

FEBRUARY 2000: SNOWFALLS -2 (12th, 16th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-4C)

OVERALL: 9, 0/-8C

DECEMBER 2000: SNOWFALLS - 5 (17th, [24, 25],26th, 27th, 28th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (-3/-11C)

JANUARY 2001: SNOWFALLS - 3 (1st, 19th, 21st), COLDEST TEMP (0/-9C)

FEBRUARY 2001: SNOWFALLS - 5 (4th, 5th, 24th, 26th, 27th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-7C)

OVERALL: 13, -3/-11C

DECEMBER 2001: SNOWFALLS - 2 (13th, 29th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-7C)

JANUARY 2002: SNOWFALLS -1 (25th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-10C)

FEBRUARY 2002: SNOWFALLS - 3 (22nd, 23rd, 24th), COLDEST TEMP (4/-5C)

OVERALL: 6, 1/-10C

DECEMBER 2002: SNOWFALLS - 2 (18th, 19th), COLDEST TEMP (-3/-8C)

JANUARY 2003: SNOWFALLS - 4 (1st, 8th, 30th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-11C)

FEBRUARY 2003: SNOWFALLS - 2 (2nd, 3rd), COLDEST TEMP (2/-7C)

OVERALL: 8, -3/-8C

DECEMBER 2003: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (-2/-8C)

JANUARY 2004: SNOWFALLS - 3 (13th, 28th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (3/-4C)

FEBRUARY 2004: SNOWFALLS - 2 (7th, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (3/-8C)

OVERALL: 5, -2/-8C

DECEMBER 2004: SNOWFALLS - 2 (24th, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

JANUARY 2005: SNOWFALLS - 3 (2nd, 17th, 18th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-5C)

FEBRUARY 2005: SNOWFALLS - 3 (21st, 23rd, 24th), COLDEST TEMP (3/-4C)

OVERALL: 8, 1/-5C

DECEMBER 2005: SNOWFALLS - 2 (29th, 30th), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-5C)

JANUARY 2006: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (-1/-7C)

FEBRUARY 2006: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (4/-6C)

OVERALL: 2, -1/-7C

DECEMBER 2006: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (3/-3C)

JANUARY 2007: SNOWFALLS - 3 (16th, 18th, 23rd), COLDEST TEMP (5/-4C)

FEBRUARY 2007: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (4/-7C)

OVERALL: 3, 3/-4C

DECEMBER 2007: SNOWFALLS - 1 (8th), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-5C)

JANUARY 2008: SNOWFALLS - 6 (2nd, 3rd, 10th, 21st, 24th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

FEBRUARY 2008: SNOWFALLS - 1 (2nd), COLDEST TEMP (5/-7C)

OVERALL: 8, -1/-7C

DECEMBER 2008: SNOWFALLS - 3 (2nd, 11th, 12th), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-7C)

JANUARY 2009: SNOWFALLS - 4 (14th, 18th, 19th, 20th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-8C)

FEBRUARY 2009: SNOWFALLS - 6 (2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 9th, 12th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-7C)

OVERALL: 13, -1/-8C

DECEMBER 2009: SNOWFALLS - 11 (14th, 17th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th, 29th, 30th), COLDEST TEMP (-4/-10C)

JANUARY 2010: SNOWFALLS - 7 (2nd, 5th, 9th, 13th, 14th, 24th, 29th), COLDEST TEMP (-6C/-12C)

FEBRUARY 2010: SNOWFALLS - 5 (2nd, 3rd, 24th, 25th, 27th), COLDEST TEMP (0/-9C)

OVERALL: 23, -6/-12C

DECEMBER 2010: SNOWFALLS - 10 (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th, 9th, 16th, 18th, 19th, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (-8/-15C)

JANUARY 2011: SNOWFALLS - 4 (5th, 7th, 8th, 12th), COLDEST TEMP (-2/-7C)

FEBRUARY 2011: SNOWFALLS - 4 (7th, 14th, 19th, 20th), COLDEST TEMP (4/-3C)

OVERALL: 18, -8/-15C

DECEMBER 2011: SNOWFALLS - 6 (4th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 16th, 17th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

JANUARY 2012: SNOWFALLS - 3 (20th, 24th, 26th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

OVERALL: 9, 2/-5C

Now let's compare how this winter already compares against others:

1. 2009/2010 - 23

2. 2010/2011 - 18

3. 2000/2001 - 13

4. 2008/2009 - 13

5. 1999/2000 - 9

6. 2011/2012 - 9

7. 2002/2003 - 8

8. 2004/2005 - 8

9. 2007/2008 - 8

10. 2011/2012 - 6

11. 2001/2002 - 6

12. 2003/2004 - 5

13. 2006/2007 - 3

Some without February, this winter is already one of the snowiest that Glasgow Airport has experienced in the past 12-13 years.

Let's see the snowiest and least snowiest month including Autumn, Spring and Winter:

My Snowiest Months - TOP 10:

1. December 2009 - 11

2. December 2010 - 10

3. December 1999 - 7

4. January 2010 - 7

5. December 2011 - 6

6. February 2009 - 6

7. January 2008 - 6

8. December 2000 - 5

9. November 2010 - 5

10. March 2006 - 5

Least snowiest winter months:

1. December 2003 - 0

2. December 2006 - 0

3. February 2007 - 0

4. January 2006 - 0

5. February 2006 - 0

6. January 2001 - 0

7. January 2002 - 1

8. December 2007 - 1

9. February 2008 - 1

10. December 2002 - 2

11. February 2003 - 2

12. February 2004 - 2

13. December 2004 - 2

14. February 2000 - 2

15. December 2005 - 2

16. January 2007 - 3

17. February 2005 - 3

18. January 2005 - 3

19. January 2004 - 3

20. February 2002 - 3

21. January 2003 - 3

22. December 2008 - 3

23. January 2011 - 3

January 2011 is somewhere between 16th and 23rd on the least snowy winter months in my lifetime so It's not even in the top 15. Infact, it's closer to being one of the snowier months! There have been 15 less snowy months than this month in my life time. So really, this winter has been a success in having already been one of the snowiest since I can remember.

Now let's make things a bit more interesting in looking at Winter seasons interms of Autumn to Spring:

1. 2010/2011 - 27

2. 2009/2010 - 24

3. 2008/2009 - 17

4. 2000/2001 - 16

5. 2007/2008 - 13

6. 2004/2005 - 10

7. 1999/2000 - 9

8. 2011/2012 - 9

9. 2005/2006 - 9

10. 2002/2003 - 8

11. 2001/2002 - 8

12. 2011/2012 - 6

13. 2003/2004 - 6

14. 2006/2007 - 5

Only 6 of these periods have been snowier than this one which has a third of winter to go and an entire Spring. 5 entire snow seasons were less snowier and 3 are equall. So it's more than likely that 2011/2012 will be a snowy season for Glasgow.

Now let's see how years compare:

2011 had 14 which is a lot. 2012 has 3, that's higher than 2006 already!

So all in all, this winter has been more than a success for Glasgow but I'm sure if you were to use the data from wunderground historical data bit for Edinburgh that you'd find massive contrasts between the two cities.

[A Winter's Tale]

There are too many intricate details in model forecasting. We've barely started February and the background signals look good for Scandi Hi retrogression to Greenland. And there is a trend for heights in the mid atlantic and GP who you should be listening too is remaining very upbeat about February. Anyway, it's the weather - just get out there and enjoy what ever it throws at you. And a Big Freeze can be possible in March if that's what you're looking for. By the I'll be looking out for cold spells and more snowfalls aswell as days full of sunshine and frost, some rain, the last winds and the first heat. Then April, I'll look for a snowfall to add to my Snow Diary and then look for sunshine, showers and heat.

So I think February has a lot to offer and the Atlantic will stop eventually, Spring could be very wintry and our largest snow events can happen in March. 3 out of the last 6 winters have seen Scotland's best snow event happen in March. I would also be interested for something a bit more prolonged and interesting but really I'll be looking for Spring weather for this Spring and yes that includes snow (maybe lots of it) and aswell as lots of sunshine, frost, heat in second half and other interesting types.

Winter my friend is not over yet! And Spring is a fantastic time of year with such fantastic variaties of winter. I fancy catching a wintry march frost, snow (battleground) and cold sunny days packed full with other weather, an April with the odd snowfall and some frost and lots of sunshine, showers and some heat. And a warm May with some of the elments of April. Spring my friend, has got a lot more to offer than storms. The transition from winter to summer, the sunshine and the cloud, the showers and the wind, the snow and the heat, the chill and the warmth - Spring is a great time for weather indeed! But enjoy the final chapter of this winter - it could prove to be interesting @Aaron.

[Aaron]

Lowland Scotland has had up to 7inches of snowfall - this has not occurred anywhere else in the UK - we're not so lucky, winter here has been a dud with no settling snow and isn't looking likely - I'm genuinely fed up with it now.

[Spurry]

anybody up for a bit of banter.

18z is rubbish.im sorry to say

At the risk of totally alienating myself and opening myself up for lots of criticism...all i have to say is "Roll on Summer".....this winter is turning out to be the mildest and most snowless for a few years...last weeks charts were forecasting 'the deep freeze' for a couple of weeks , now however we are looking at a 5 day cold spell which is nothing spectacular... as a cold fan(in winter) i am now throwing in the towel and praying for spring to arrive

[Andrew snow hope]

Is this set in stone for the no snow now event this weekend?

[andy100]

the winter is over

[greybing]

I feel ,with all due respect,that this thread is not healthy.In fact,to go one further, I think basing ones emotional state on something utterly out of our control stupendously dumb.Hey .I do it ,I,m not guilty of this,I have in the past been able to detach myself from the weather,and other stuff ,[i dont mean not be interested on in them,weather for eg] .I think what we need to is to detatch ourselves from be it weather,people,anyhing out of our control as it ultimately leads to an un balanced emotional stare which,I believe is not healthy.Much better to be detatced and then when sonmething like say snow happens ,[since this is weather thread then we enjoy it more when it happens from not living in a maybe future.as oppossed to a definate ,now...............................how very taoist of me,oh how wise I am ,[yeah right]......it is easier to say these words than act on them but ,[i try though] there is certainly wisdom within them.Maybe I should have started a thread ,'weather psychology'.

Edited February 1, 2012 by greybing

[Snowy Easterly]

the winter is over

yep winter is over but i wouldn't rule out snow in spring

lovely easterly on the GFS maybe we will get lucky at at 7th bite of the cherry

Edited February 1, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[leicsnow]

I feel ,with all due respect,that this thread is not healthy.In fact,to go one further, I think basing ones emotional state on something utterly out of our control stupendously dumb.Hey .I do it ,I,m not guilty of this,I have in the past been able to detach myself from the weather,and other stuff ,[i dont mean not be interested on in them,weather for eg] .I think what we need to is to detatch ourselves from be it weather,people,anyhing out of our control as it ultimately leads to an un balanced emotional stare which,I believe is not healthy.Much better to be detatced and then when sonmething like say snow happens ,[since this is weather thread then we enjoy it more when it happens from not living in a maybe future.as oppossed to a definate ,now...............................how very taoist of me,oh how wise I am ,[yeah right]......it is easier to say these words than act on them but ,[i try though] there is certainly wisdom within them.Maybe I should have started a thread ,'weather psychology'.

I think the emotion that seems to be felt on this forum is rather different to the emotion felt by many people when it rains, or is cold, etc. The interest we have is for exciting weather because many of us are weather geeks, but for most people sunny would be the best option.

[leicsnow]

What a hateful, horrible 0z run

[La Bise]

The weather remains the same in the bedroom where most people spend their time staring intensely at charts on a screen, relax...what happens outside is almost irrelevant

[Weather-history]

It must be an easterly weather fan's frustration that there is a very cold pool to the east, its almost within grasp, there is an easterly flow but there is no oomph to it and it then sinks. It must be hair pulling for fans of the easterly. Its almost there but not quite. You can almost see it now that when there is an easterly with some oomph that it will be like early January 2010 and little cold pool!

Edited February 1, 2012 by Mr_Data

[SnowObsessor90]

Dire just dire model run's this morning.

So is this all we get? a brief 5 cold and frosty snap followed by the usual rubbish yet again taking full charge?

Gosh what a good awful winter this has been and is still turning out to be.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Anonymous21

[UV-RAY]

A poor excuse for a cold spell if the models verify this weekend, a few days of cold frosty weather is no better than what we have had to endure for the whole of this winter. Will the teleconnections lead us to a lengthy cold spell anytime soon, watch this space. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.png

Edited February 1, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Thundery wintry showers]

It must be an easterly weather fan's frustration that there is a very cold pool to the east, its almost within grasp, there is an easterly flow but there is no oomph to it and it then sinks. It must be hair pulling for fans of the easterly. Its almost there but not quite. You can almost see it now that when there is an easterly with some oomph that it will be like early January 2010 and little cold pool!

The scenario that you describe reminds me of January/February 2006- three or four separate instances of extremely cold continental air almost making it over to our shores, and then when we did get an easterly spell at the back end of February it was even tamer than the one in late February 2005 (although it did lead into a notably potent northerly outbreak- which might end up being the story of this month given signals for building pressure over Greenland).

I had an extensive browse of the synoptic archives for the winters of 1870 through to 1910 on Wetterzentrale recently and it revealed that this sort of thing was a common occurrence even then- I came across a number of instances with a strong Russian high centred that little bit too far east, and then a full-on easterly a couple of weeks later with an anomalously warm continent.

[KTtom]

Its almost laughable what we have ended up with compared what was shown a few days ago.A Russian high is just useless for us as were just too far west and end up right at the end of the track at best...easterlies are only going to be any good here if we get some sort of link up to the north of us so we actually get into the proper easterly flow....just hoping the Russian high will foxtrot off quickly so we have enough time to get a northerly!

[MP-R]

If there isn't any snow by Sunday then I will have a serious moan about this winter/autumn whatever you want to call it. I think this spell is as frustrating as the 14day+ one at the start of January 2009 which just gave way to milder southwesterlies with no breakdown.

[snow freak]

This winter is just turning out to be an extension of a normal 'autumn'. When they are having lying snow in north africa and we get nothing here, there is something seriously wrong going on. The jet stream and the azores high are being real trouble makers this winter. They are spoiling it for everyone. No doubt they will disappear for the summer and then reappear in time for next winter. The weather in this country is so unreliable and usually depressing.