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The Winter emotions and moaning thread


bobbydog

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Disappointing to see a change to a more typical Atlantic wind and rain pattern just as we approach Christmas.

Even a bit of crisp frosty weather under a cold high would seem more seasonal than whats before us now.

Us cold and snow lovers will have to wait into the new year now it seems and hope that the background signals disrupt the low heights to our north and any resultant blocking brings the UK some deep cold.

Edited by phil n.warks.
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

it's funny how the met or the ec32 not that good because its not showing people what they want, the met get it rite mor times then wrong peeps always talk about the summer that went tits up nw made a summer forecast with shades of 76 not long ago, im not having ago i've alot of respect for peeps like gp, jh, choeo, steave m and others. How ever these guys r not infalable they can get it wrong sometimes too. Anyway there's over ten weeks to go yet for winter. I make these comments after reading the mod thread today.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Cheesed off with this mild/damp and rainy weather we have at the moment. It feels like it did in October and November. It is 11.6c outside right now,with thick mist thrown in for good measure.

you live in Plymouth what do you expect??..even cold and snow wouldnt make Plymouth any less miserable and depressing
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and humid with some thunderstorms plus some snow too.
  • Location: Liverpool

What really annoys me is that fact that some posters both on this form and over on the TWO forum seem to be determined not to just write off the rest of December for cold, but the entire of January too - and going as far to say that will be mild and zonal and even confidently predicting more flooding - how can they be so sure of this yes some long range models are buying into the zonal solution but if those long range models where showing cold I am sure the same posters would be say "exercise caution" or "its FI, it's not going to happen - generally the near term models are accurate up to about 5 days and then after is FI. The most extreme example of this was a poster over on the TWO forum who at first predicted a very cold winter and with the changes in model output recently is now predicting that this winter will be similar to 1988/89 - that was one of the mildest winters on record I don't see any way that this december will be as mild as 1988 (the second mildest in 100 years - a CET of 7.5C so a 1 in 50 year event at least!) so to get a winter to rival 1988/89 January and February are going to have to be record mild - some posters seem to be too influenced by emotion over thier disappointment with the lack of cold (e.g. the failed easterly) rather than analysing things objectively - so thats my gripe.

I have posted a good example on the model thread of a month which had a mild and wet first 3 weeks - milder than this month and then a decent cold spell in the final week - December 2000 (which was in the so called "christmas pudding" as well btw) and many of the decembers of the 80s (e.g. 1986) were milder than this December and were followed by decent cold in January and February so why can't the same happen this time.

Luke

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

What really annoys me is that fact that some posters both on this form and over on the TWO forum seem to be determined not to just write off the rest of December for cold, but the entire of January too - and going as far to say that will be mild and zonal and even confidently predicting more flooding - how can they be so sure of this yes some long range models are buying into the zonal solution but if those long range models where showing cold I am sure the same posters would be say "exercise caution" or "its FI, it's not going to happen - generally the near term models are accurate up to about 5 days and then after is FI. The most extreme example of this was a poster over on the TWO forum who at first predicted a very cold winter and with the changes in model output recently is now predicting that this winter will be similar to 1988/89 - that was one of the mildest winters on record I don't see any way that this december will be as mild as 1988 (the second mildest in 100 years - a CET of 7.5C so a 1 in 50 year event at least!) so to get a winter to rival 1988/89 January and February are going to have to be record mild - some posters seem to be too influenced by emotion over thier disappointment with the lack of cold (e.g. the failed easterly) rather than analysing things objectively - so thats my gripe.

I have posted a good example on the model thread of a month which had a mild and wet first 3 weeks - milder than this month and then a decent cold spell in the final week - December 2000 (which was in the so called "christmas pudding" as well btw) and many of the decembers of the 80s (e.g. 1986) were milder than this December and were followed by decent cold in January and February so why can't the same happen this time.

Luke

it can...trouble is UK winter default setting is for it to be mainly mild and wet being located where it is...so it is much easier to forecast mild wet spells of weather than cold snowy ones..where i live cold and snowy is the default setting trying to predict future mild spells is very difficult and often they just dont happen...sound familiar?
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Posted
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow

Been a great argument going on over on the model output thread between snowballz and no balls.it has been on the wrong thread but thats another thing.

They both seem intelligent people but to me one is arguing for the models as a predictive tool and the other is not, Surely this is a non argument as the models are simply the scientific community's tool for trying to predict the weather, yes they have a long way to go but they are slowly, very slowly getting there. To write off the inaccuracy in there verification as simply the weather being the weather is missing the point altogether.

SS2

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

For those in the snow-starved south, you could always buy yourself a little bothy on Fiacaill a' Choire Chais in the Cairngorms?

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France

See the cold is starting to creep west now, sub zero getting to Berlin :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

See the cold is starting to creep west now, sub zero getting to Berlin Posted Image

Oh good, it reminds me of the last epic cold spell earlier this month, cold coming t+5000.Posted Image
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Posted
  • Location: iow england
  • Location: iow england

Thought Id share a personal view on how I view the winter period. During November expectation are running high and the model watching becomes quite intense and usually throws up some interesting outputs, along with that there is usually a few enormous ramps from the usual suspects witch adds fuel to my expectations. Also the shortening days gives the impression of a long cold winter ahead, and it doesn't matter to much if the models aren't showing cold, there is still plenty of time. The watershed for me is Xmas where I am distracted from model watching and take up looking s at the charts again in the new year. Suddenly time has seemed to run out, the models are showing Zonal all the way, the days are getting longer and a lot of winter is over posts start to appear. I keep telling myself that the winter of 1947 didn't start till mid Jan, but it to no avail, are well there is always next year, my thought turn to spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

So the general consensus seems to be that we have to wait until mid-January before any kind of change takes place. If that's true (and who knows to be frank!) that's fine by me. I can be patient.

However, if that means we have to put up with these soggy conditions until then, then that's not good. The relentless rain we've seen and are likely to see is already causing so many problems. Running out of grit must be a lot easier to cope with the amount of damage that this is causing. Hopefully, the dry couple of days we have coming up will help. And even more hopefully, the models and forecasts have got the run up to new year wrong and it won't be as wet as being suggested.

We may not like it, but the authorities and the transport companies would really love something in the style of Feb 98. 14c and sunshine doesn't really cause that many problems!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

February is more like early Spring nowadays so we have just over a month really for any substantial cold. Once mid February comes along snow never lasts for more than a day so that's when I start looking for warm weather again

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

i would second that mid feb onward i start looking for warm weather. Snow here after mid feb doesn't last long. As for up coming cold in jan although the met r giving hints lets just say il beleave it when i see it.

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Posted
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France

They are now talking about the east from east receding as far as Moscow, being pushed by the pest from the west, perhaps after it has receded it may advance again - I'd give it a month for this, so we may get lucky the end of Jan, otherwise I will be earnestly looking forward to spring.

That HP just off the coast of Iberia seems to be the cause of our problems - the Greenie and the Scandie have had a go but this one is a bit stubborn.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With little sign of the white stuff as Christmas draws near, I think it's time we take out the big guns...

post-6901-0-82167400-1356210908_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I still think people talking about spring in the model thread should at least give it a couple of weeks to see if an SSW occurs and what effect it has, if it fails and we are still looking at dyer NWP output in 2 or 3 weeks then whilst i still think talkimg about spring would be a little premature, i could probably understand the negativity, i think anywhere between the 20th jan - 10th feb is the tipping point for me in terms of me talking doom and gloom, depending on output, expert analysis and MO 30 dayers, however, i still dont give up until its physically impossible to get snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Rain Rain and more sodding Rain!

What a truely dire outlook currently, winter has a long way to go yet however we are currently looking at a potentially snowless winter which is rare in itself. Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

well I have just put a statement in on the comments column that spring is here ! (joking) now watch an arctic blast with deep cold, ice and snow now appear very soon lol

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I think we certainly have learnt one thing for definite this year and that's that lrf's are a complete waste of time.

All the pointers were too cold if not severe Winter, and what do we get instead only weeks of mildness.

I always feel the Christmas / New Year period as key for whether it goes down as a cold Winter or not.

This year looks like being up there with the worst of em

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Hmmmm....models looking pretty dire at the moment, just a succession of depressions wheeling there way across the British Isles with milder and less mild and plenty of rain theme. Too soon to write off winter but all too often when we see the jet stream powered up it can take weeks for some sort of let up. So in general nothing to shout about up till the early New Year.

As for the Teleconnection signals for this winter...dreadful.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

I read a post in the model thread which was asking where everyone was as the 12z was "better" or something like that. Frankly, and I think I speak for everyone who is suffering from waterlogging or worse, I could not give a damn about cold weather right now. All we care about is some sustained dry weather which will ease the misery of many people who are suffering as a result of the hateful and detestable pattern of weather we are being forced to endure.

Anyone who dares whinge in the coming months about "needing rain" after the months and months of crappy poxy rain we have had, can shove it in a dark place somewhere Posted Image

RANT OVER.

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

We're now fast approaching the half way mark for this winter and absolutely no sign of any intense cold on the horizon. Even the cold air in eastern Europe will be pushed to one side over the next few days, and the dreaded Bartlett high has made a reappearance.

What's killing this winter is that persistant high pressure over France and Spain,meaning low pressure systems are tracking well to the north of the UK.

This is shaping up to be a real stinker again.

Snowless and virtually no frost.

GRRRRRRRRRR

Yuk.

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