The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[EML Network]

Well I think December 2012 will go down in history as the Month that promised so much and never really delivered.

Not once, but twice in the space of a week we had been led down the garden path.

I think we'll now have to wait until next year before we get another opportunity, but my fear is that we don't get too many opportunity's during winter, so that's 2 chances scuppered....are we going to get another one at all ??

In future years we will never believe in an Easterly until it's within + 72..I know I won't.

[stewfox]

Well I think December 2012 will go down in history as the Month that promised so much and never really delivered.

Not once, but twice in the space of a week we had been led down the garden path.

I think we'll now have to wait until next year before we get another opportunity, but my fear is that we don't get too many opportunity's during winter, so that's 2 chances scuppered....are we going to get another one at all ??

In future years we will never believe in an Easterly until it's within + 72..I know I won't.

So based on one model run thats December over and no Easterly till next year ? Come on we have seen so many times charts chop and change, lets not write off winter on the basis of a chart. Daily Express forecast cold supported by the 'BBC' this morning. Cant see the BBC telling fibs can you ??

Edited December 8, 2012 by stewfox

[IanR]

Severe cold will come at some point this winter. I am convinced (not that I personally want it ) but coldies should not give up yet , remember the mild winter of last year, then a potent snowy spell pop up as late as February, the snow didnt last long but if it had happened a little earlier , it might have been more protracted, the warming sun in late Feb didnt help , but it does go to show

[stewfox]

Severe cold will come at some point this winter. I am convinced (not that I personally want it ) but coldies should not give up yet , remember the mild winter of last year, then a potent snowy spell pop up as late as February, the snow didnt last long but if it had happened a little earlier , it might have been more protracted, the warming sun in late Feb didnt help , but it does go to show

It lasted 10 days (lying snow) IMBY and was early Feb but of course now we have the Epic Dec 2010 snow will have to be lying over 3 weeks to call it a cold snap. I'm old enough to remember the 1990s when a cold snap was defined as over 3 hrs long and long lasting lying snow cover use to be classed as over 3 hrs, how times have changed.

[TheWeatherGirl]

Feeling disillusioned. December 2010 has forever spoiled Xmas for me ...

[nanu]

Well I think December 2012 will go down in history as the Month that promised so much and never really delivered.

Not once, but twice in the space of a week we had been led down the garden path.

I think we'll now have to wait until next year before we get another opportunity, but my fear is that we don't get too many opportunity's during winter, so that's 2 chances scuppered....are we going to get another one at all ??

In future years we will never believe in an Easterly until it's within + 72..I know I won't.

whats the bets for an hat trick?? evens??

[nanu]

It lasted 10 days (lying snow) IMBY and was early Feb but of course now we have the Epic Dec 2010 snow will have to be lying over 3 weeks to call it a cold snap. I'm old enough to remember the 1990s when a cold snap was defined as over 3 hrs long and long lasting lying snow cover use to be classed as over 3 hrs, how times have changed.

also remember the 87/91 spell (sorry i know im bringing that up again) but they brought in a mighty big punch.. but lasted what! 5 days was it??? now we are all looking for 2 weeks worth..lol

[Thundery wintry showers]

The snowy weather of February 1991 lasted about a week (7th-14th) although there had been some marginal snow events from weak frontal systems around the beginning of February as well. Frontal disturbances generated some longer outbreaks of snow that penetrated well inland, in addition to the usual periods of sunshine and snow showers generated by convection over the North Sea. In January 1987 the main easterly blast lasted about 4-5 days, with three days of sunshine and snow showers followed by a more organised belt of snow, and some freezing rain for some on the southern flank. However, the persistence of cold meant that many central and eastern areas had 10-15 days of lying snow in both months.

I'm not too bothered about having a prolonged cold spell- from a "snow" perspective I would have happily settled for a few days of sunshine and snow showers followed by a snow-to-rain breakdown from the SW, and the main factor putting me off from a fast breakdown was more the potential for widespread flooding. However, the recent change on the model outputs has largely got rid of the North Sea convection as well, so realistically speaking I'm faced with four cold dry days followed by a brief snow-to-rain event and the inevitable flooding- the worst of both worlds really.

I had always said, "wait till Saturday- don't trust an easterly till it gets inside T+72", but I can't deny that I was "taken in" a little around Thursday and early Friday when the models were very consistent in having a few days of snow showers near the east coast and possibly further inland at times. However, it's worth trying not to get too worked up about it, because it's something we have no control over.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[Hotspur62]

Like most others, disappointed that potential cold spell,was,well,just potential,and that we will now just have just a "cold snap" with maybe a few wintry showers affecting Eastern coastal areas.Amazing how from Thursday night how things looked probably 70% sure that cold spell would develop from next week and maybe last 10-14 days, has turned around with mild Atlantic doing its usual and starts charging in from as early as next Thursday.Now seems 80% certain that this time next week vast majority of UK will be relatively mild and think we will see temps of 10 degrees in South.

Good thing is it is only 8th December and we still have 90% of winter left, so plenty of time for cold to establish itself and come back in a few weeks time.Historically,with exception of December 2010,it is very rare indeed for big Scandi High to bring us Beast from East so should we be surprised by Models from last 24 hours?..Probably not.

On a positive note,least we will all save a few bob on our heating bills if(when) milder weather pushes through.Handy for me as i have had no heating for 2 weeks and my house is B---dy freezing.New boiler coming Monday so will be ready when next cold spell comes!!

[Froze were the Days]

Well who couldn't be taken in, everything was in our favour - teleconnections, SSW event SST's favourable and fairly consistent modelling in the medium term for blocking to the north etc and it has been (or looks to be) a complete turnaround with somewhat of a +ao now. Very difficult not to be suckered in by it all - there's going to be a large amount of sceptics on easterlies now unless it's within 3/4 days range. Not once but twice within a couple of weeks is hard to take, at least we might see something in the way of a brief north easterly and the possibility of some convectivity around Monday/Tuesday.

[Gord]

Good to see some optimism in some of the posts. All is not lost by a long way. Even when the Atlantic comes back things could all change again by the New Year. I also admit that I was getting sucked into the model output this week. I'm not sure the pre-2009 of myself would...but because we've had some success in recent winters it became easier to get sucked into it.

Need to get back to early 2000's thinking...I was much more critical and analytical of the weather then. In the same way that August 2003 distorted my view of future summers (which of course has very much bumped back down to Earth since then!)...I think I'm in danger of December 2010 doing the same for winter.

A good wake up call this week.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Gord

[Terminal Moraine]

Well I think December 2012 will go down in history as the Month that promised so much and never really delivered.

Not once, but twice in the space of a week we had been led down the garden path.

I think we'll now have to wait until next year before we get another opportunity, but my fear is that we don't get too many opportunity's during winter, so that's 2 chances scuppered....are we going to get another one at all ??

In future years we will never believe in an Easterly until it's within + 72..I know I won't.

I think it only promised so much because these days we have almost too much information at our disposal and it's all too easy to look at charts hundreds of hours into the future and be lulled into thinking it's what will happen.

20,30 or more years ago we would have been looking no further ahead than about 3 days as we listened intently to the weather forecast on the radio or tuned in to the t.v and would have had no idea what the charts were 'promising' a week or more into the future.

I'm not in the least concerned that the current chilly spell will break down towards the end of the week. There have been plenty of Decembers in my time, and well before, where the Siberian high has been nosing about early in the winter, only to retreat for a while before coming back later.

In fact it's a rare winter when prolonged cold in December leads to a cold winter, often it works in reverse, and most of the classic winters of the past didn't get started until around christmas at the earliest.

I don't profess to fully understand all the different teleconnections but the overall look of the synoptics, the behaviour of the jet etc leads me to think that there will eventually be a cold and snowy spell, possibly several, later in the winter.

While we wait let's all try to remember that excellent looking model output is only a snapshot of the future if a lot of variables all come together rather than a present we are promised, only to have taken away

[leicsnow]

Save your head. You're dealing with half-wits who wouldn't know mild weather from a teapot. As I have said a few times already. In the great words of Bishop Brennan an 88/89 winter would soon teach these fools what mild weather is.

I'm not totally convinced it would. Before 2009, people had given up on cold winters, not because they had experienced one extremely mild one, but because they had experienced a long run of benign winters throughout the 90s and 00s. If an 88/89 were to happen again, people would simply be back cold ramping the next winter.

[UV-RAY]

Now that we know we've been led up the garden path again, my thoughts turn to this being the first Calander year in which I may not see snow falling. Even during some of those awful winters of the past, they all produced a few slushy deposits in my forty nine years.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Snowy Easterlies]

what are the odds on the next couple of weeks being milder than some days we had in june this year ? like the queens jubilee when it was cold and wet with temps of 8c

a shocking turnaround in the models, even though i wasn't totally taken in by the charts, at the back of my mind i had some hope we would see a decent cold spell, i was wrongly shot down in the model thread yesterday for saying it has all downgraded, im afraid in life more often than not things don't go right and i will never be a member of the blind faith brigade, and i will usually be realistic/negative

i don't expect the atlantic to barrel through totally, what might happen is the usual NW/SE split courtesy of a pressure rise to the south, the usual plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzz

who knows though, i have about 10% faith that things might turn for the better, as i said im mostly a half glass empty kind of bloke but at the back of my mind i always have faint hope on something decent coming, otherwise i wouldn't be on here watching these charts all the bloody time

Edited December 8, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[SnowObsessor90]

I don't mean to get your spirits down further folks but this may well have been our last shot. Afterall December 21st is literally just around the corner lol

[Eugene]

I don't mean to get your spirits down further folks but this may well have been our last shot. Afterall December 21st is literally just around the corner lol

I hope you mean for December, if you mean winter as a whole you really are setting yourself for one almighty fall.

[Ninman]

My wife is watching speed auction tv and they are selling snow shovels, with the presenter going on about the 'big freeze' thats 'imminent' with lots of snow - what a plonker!

[SnowObsessor90]

I hope you mean for December, if you mean winter as a whole you really are setting yourself for one almighty fall.

lol you do know I was being ironic right? what conspiracy theory's for the end of the world and everything.

[Eugene]

lol oh i see the Mayan theory

[SnowObsessor90]

Looking on the bright side at least if this winter ends going completely the way of the pear (which I wouldn't rule out based on this weeks farce) then at least it'll serve as a proper wake call for quite a few people on here myself included seeing as last winter seemingly failed to do that job. Perhaps that's being overly optimistic though

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think everyone is expecting cold too early, the cold charts never came out of FI, a bonus really coming up to get 3 dry days in a row coming up mon-wed, in a completely normal mild autumnal Atlantic dominated month

I think now thats 4 out of 5 GFS runs, that has brought the easterly in FI, might well happen but not as soon as 22 Dec like GFS shows, never get snow before Xmas anyway, wasnt GP's forecast for winter to start very early Jan? and cold spells throughout Jan and Feb

[Bumpkin]

I think people allow themselves to get sucked into believing what the models show a week or 2 ahead if its something that they want to see. I follow the models with great interest and look for trends but don't take anything as more certain until we are a couple of days out.

Several have moaned about being 'led up the garden path' but you are willingly holding out your hands and being taken along by the models. Look for trends by all means, just realise that things change and nothing is certain.

[Aaron]

I think everyone is expecting cold too early, the cold charts never came out of FI, a bonus really coming up to get 3 dry days in a row coming up mon-wed, in a completely normal mild autumnal Atlantic dominated month

I think now thats 4 out of 5 GFS runs, that has brought the easterly in FI, might well happen but not as soon as 22 Dec like GFS shows, never get snow before Xmas anyway, wasnt GP's forecast for winter to start very early Jan? and cold spells throughout Jan and Feb

Sorry, but why do you always post false information?

[Snowy Easterlies]

here we go again, chasing snow and good synoptics at T180 + who knows we might be third time lucky, i think i need to recharge the batteries

no doubt when/if we do get snow falling i will probably be asleep during it due to exhaustion of chasing it in the models and typically miss it, or it will snow when im at work

Edited December 9, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies