The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So your saying your worried about whats gunna happen over a week away, oh dear you need to be more patient give it a good few runs, things are changing all the time.

Yeah, he could get a snowstorm in January!

[SouthPennine88]

I also find it rather peculiar how you can be so confident when only 'several' charts are showing this ...

[Floatylight]

I thought you said last week that was gonna happen for next week js.

Alots going to happen next week according to the big 3,so lets just concentrate on that?

[Wilxy]

Yeah, he could get a snowstorm in January!

I dunno could be marginal

Seriously tho if things can change within 3 days from now god knows what the charts will look like by then, i find it rather intresting all this uncertainty.

[January Snowstorm]

I thought you said last week that was gonna happen for next week js.

Alots going to happen next week according to the big 3,so lets just concentrate on that?

I was one of the first to say last week that the failed Easterly may not happen.

Guess what ? It didn't happen.

Next week will be bitterly cold but dry away from favoured coasts.

That's my opinion so rather than jump down my throat lets wait and see what does happen?!

I also think that the breakdown is going to happen Sat week

Some dont agree so can we wait and see what happens there too.

EDIT - COLD!! And yes in the meantime we can all have fun building frostmen snowmen

[Wilxy]

I was one of the first to say last week that the failed Easterly may not happen.

Guess what ? It didn't happen.

Next week will be bitterly cold but dry away from favoured coasts.

That's my opinion so rather than jump down my throat lets wait and see what does happen?!

I also think that the breakdown is going to happen Sat week

Some dont agree so can we wait and see what happens there too.

EDIT - COLD!! And yes in the meantime we can all have fun building frostmen snowmen

The potential for snow isn't gone at all if the atlantic did wan't to put up a fight things could get intresting + the cold uppers could upgrade. the potential hasn't gone.

[Floatylight]

I was one of the first to say last week that the failed Easterly may not happen.

Guess what ? It didn't happen.

Next week will be bitterly cold but dry away from favoured coasts.

That's my opinion so rather than jump down my throat lets wait and see what does happen?!

I also think that the breakdown is going to happen Sat week

Some dont agree so can we wait and see what happens there too.

EDIT - COLD!! And yes in the meantime we can all have fun building frostmen snowmen

oh sorry was it ever meant to happen this week then??

Anybody?was it on the cards atall for this week?

I was unaware of a failed easterly this week,missed that!

I did build a small snowman yesterday.

Edited December 6, 2012 by Floatylight

[SouthPennine88]

I was one of the first to say last week that the failed Easterly may not happen.

Guess what ? It didn't happen.

Next week will be bitterly cold but dry away from favoured coasts.

That's my opinion so rather than jump down my throat lets wait and see what does happen?!

I also think that the breakdown is going to happen Sat week

Some dont agree so can we wait and see what happens there too.

EDIT - COLD!! And yes in the meantime we can all have fun building frostmen snowmen

So you're uncertain about next week but extremely certain about the week after next week?

I can guarantee you 99% that snow will fall away from the coast next week.

How much are you betting?

If I was you, I would just hide and stop commenting since next week we have potentially an Easterly that could bring heavy distruptive snowfall to large parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland. As for next weekend, it is impossible for snow and cold to last for ever, so before you jump on our throats telling us the Atlantic arrives next weekend, I think you should know that absolutely none of us are bothered about that whatsoever.

[SouthPennine88]

Well, that did keep him quiet.

Anyone new on here and not good with weather forecasting or model reading, I can promise you 99% that IF we get an Easterly/N Easterly next week, it would be virtually impossible to get Precipitation (most likely snow) just on the coasts.

It's probably never ever happened before to have PPN just on the coasts.

[Snowy Easterlies]

I was one of the first to say last week that the failed Easterly may not happen.

Guess what ? It didn't happen.

Next week will be bitterly cold but dry away from favoured coasts.

That's my opinion so rather than jump down my throat lets wait and see what does happen?!

I also think that the breakdown is going to happen Sat week

Some dont agree so can we wait and see what happens there too.

EDIT - COLD!! And yes in the meantime we can all have fun building frostmen snowmen

agree the 500mb charts flatter to deceive, where is the strong windflow for next wed and thur? some places might get something on tues when the flow is stronger, as for next weekend im not going to speculate on that right now, quite often these lows end up further south and we end up staying cold and dry. Edited December 6, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[SouthPennine88]

agree the 500mb flatter to deceive, where is the strong windflow for next wed and thur? some places might get something on tues when the flow is stronger, as for next weekend im not going to speculate on that right now, quite often these lows end up further south and we end up staying cold and dry.

Thank goodness for that, someone with brains!

I can also say this ...

I'm 80% certain that, from Monday - Friday next week, on average (for the effected areas of the UK), there will be more dry than PPN.

But January Snowstorms though, think about it ... we are potentially under the influence of bitterly cold temperatures next week Monday to Friday (more so Tuesday - Thursday) ... which is equivalent to 5 days ... How ON EARTH are we going to get PPN JUST on the coasts?

It's completely impossible!

[joggs]

Seen and remember similar set ups in the 1980s, and no matter what the big 3 are showing now after t144 lots of changes to come. Also this cold/blocked pattern will NOT shift that easy We will also recieve on the spot suprises(snow) and most of the british isles WILL have seen snow in the next 10 days. The cold IS locked and here to stay for a good while, ableit a day or 2 mild blip here n there but with cold pattern re-setting. In these set ups and i know its hard, but DONT look further than t120 tops and watch the 500mb charts for longer term,the met office extended updates and listen to GP,CHIO,JH,SM and in my eyes whose input is valuble it TEITS. You cant go to far wrong and i'll be back to say i told you so in a few month

[SouthPennine88]

Some astonishing runs all over the board then for next week.

Getting rather exciting now!

Some of these charts showing up are amazing, virtually no flaws.

Odds on!

Edited December 6, 2012 by SouthPennine88

[Ian Brown]

Thank goodness for that, someone with brains!

I can also say this ...

I'm 80% certain that, from Monday - Friday next week, on average (for the effected areas of the UK), there will be more dry than PPN.

But January Snowstorms though, think about it ... we are potentially under the influence of bitterly cold temperatures next week Monday to Friday (more so Tuesday - Thursday) ... which is equivalent to 5 days ... How ON EARTH are we going to get PPN JUST on the coasts?

It's completely impossible!

It is possible SP, because there pressure is not low enough close to the UK and there is nothing to drive showers very far inland. I've run through many classic easterlies on the archive charts and none of them had such a slack flow as being progged by the models for next week.

[SouthPennine88]

It is possible SP, because there pressure is not low enough close to the UK and there is nothing to drive showers very far inland. I've run through many classic easterlies on the archive charts and none of them had such a slack flow as being progged by the models for next week.

Still, it's impossible to get PPN just on the East coast for 5 days and NOTHING anywhere else.

Think about it.

Virtually impossible.

[Mark Neal.]

Still, it's impossible to get PPN just on the East coast for 5 days and NOTHING anywhere else.

Think about it.

Virtually impossible.

In regard to what you are talking about, I was also struggling to see a real powerful easterly with snow showers going very far inland, however Ian Fergusson has just posted some interesting stuff (Mod Thread) for Tuesday where 5-10cm is possible in some Eastern areas and showers penetrating as far in as Central Areas for some. Now that is Encouraging to here :-)

Edited December 7, 2012 by Mark Neal.

[chionomaniac]

I was one of the first to say last week that the failed Easterly may not happen.

Guess what ? It didn't happen.

Next week will be bitterly cold but dry away from favoured coasts.

That's my opinion so rather than jump down my throat lets wait and see what does happen?!

I also think that the breakdown is going to happen Sat week

Some dont agree so can we wait and see what happens there too.

EDIT - COLD!! And yes in the meantime we can all have fun building frostmen snowmen

This may appear a bizarre concept to you, JS, but an easterly can't be classified as having failed because mother nature doesn't work like that! The weather will be what the weather will be and is certainly not controlled by mankinds ability to forecast it!

[nanu]

will somebody (pref an expert!!) tell me why the bloody hell models are swinging from one day to the next with mild.,cold..,nope its mild again... sorry cold now!! these millions pound computers from around the world to me are crap,, dont think we see this during summer time.. ok il admit it was most probably just one way traffic of wet.. but surely these systems are designed and programmed to know what the hell is likely to happen otherwise they wouldnt be there to tell us. Yet once again its one day this then tomorrow its mild then etc etc as far as i can tell it can only they can only see 2 days ahead, and to me that is a complete waste of money!!. Forecasting beyond that its like a shrug of the shoulders!! The reason i want know is because i have a dad who i have to take to hospital every now and then and i would just like to plan out roughly a week in advance over this xmas period to know what to expect.. at the moment i may as well just look out of the window and a glance of the radar and make a dash for it

[Great Plum]

The thing is Nanu, it is incredibly difficult to mode the unusual, such as an easterly...

Also, I've yet to see a mild chart within 180hrs!

[TAFKAP]

will somebody (pref an expert!!) tell me why the bloody hell models are swinging from one day to the next with mild.,cold..,nope its mild again... sorry cold now!! these millions pound computers from around the world to me are crap,, dont think we see this during summer time.. ok il admit it was most probably just one way traffic of wet.. but surely these systems are designed and programmed to know what the hell is likely to happen otherwise they wouldnt be there to tell us. Yet once again its one day this then tomorrow its mild then etc etc as far as i can tell it can only they can only see 2 days ahead, and to me that is a complete waste of money!!. Forecasting beyond that its like a shrug of the shoulders!! The reason i want know is because i have a dad who i have to take to hospital every now and then and i would just like to plan out roughly a week in advance over this xmas period to know what to expect.. at the moment i may as well just look out of the window and a glance of the radar and make a dash for it

They have not been showing mild. They have been showing variations on a cold theme within the reliable.

[Tony Beets]

Stop saying mild!!!!!!!! It's average/ less cold but still cold!! Jesus!!! Brick wall and head come to mind!!!!!!

[TAFKAP]

Stop saying mild!!!!!!!! It's average/ less cold but still cold!! Jesus!!! Brick wall and head come to mind!!!!!!

Save your head. You're dealing with half-wits who wouldn't know mild weather from a teapot. As I have said a few times already. In the great words of Bishop Brennan an 88/89 winter would soon teach these fools what mild weather is.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

To me it looks like a short cold snap giving pretty much all eastern coasts a dusting of snow then the atlantic pushes back in which gives a few cm's in some lucky places before melting the next day then its mild southwesterley's all the way through the winter, mild air with a strong southwesterly wind, oh yes.

Edited December 7, 2012 by I Cumbria Marra I

[cheeky_monkey]

To me it looks like a short cold snap giving pretty much all eastern coasts a dusting of snow then the atlantic pushes back in which gives a few cm's in some lucky places before melting the next day then its mild southwesterley's all the way through the winter, mild air with a strong southwesterly wind, oh yes.

is it?...even looking from my side of the pond i couldn't see any sw winds and mild conditions...then again i cant see any raging cold either Edited December 7, 2012 by cheeky_monkey

[Snowmad79]

6 years a member of the forum yet only 41 posts. Why so few ? Because in my eyes theres nothing worse than spouting hero words then looking a complete numpty when it all goes pear. Some of the members here need a good long hard look at themselves. They are bordering 'Coco the Clown' with some of their predictions and chart analysis. Its quite embarrassing to be honest. Ramp, ramp, ramp and then when it doesn't look good theres always an excuse. Here's the reason, not the excuse. NO ONE can predict what will happen weather wise 10 days+. Hell, the Met had trouble forecasting over 2 days in Dec 2010, gave up and did nowcasts.

You can waffle and baffle me with charts galore, hey, chuck in some folklore for good measure just make sure theres some accuracy in the content ! We've gone from 'beast from the east' to 'atlantic batlle ground and then 'atlantic surge' all in 3 days. Shocking. Oh but its ok cause the 'beast' returns just in time for crimbo in FI. I want snow more than anyone here like you wouldn't believe but please, stop spouting tripe over events that are 10 days away

Sorry thats 6 years of ramping frustration coming out probably leading to a deleted post and a ban !

TMSIG

I am quite amazed at how such a whine (one of the biggest I've read so far this season) was even allowed to stay in the model output thread long enough to get "1 like" let alone 24. It's the bleeding model output thread not the Meto Forecast page. Model Output goes out to 10 days or so and is never going to be straight cut even at 72hr so viewing or taking part in that thread expecting an accurate 10 day forecast is madness.

If the mid term and FI show the Beast, why shouldn't it be discussed ?.. it is open to discussion much as heatwaves in summer are! I'd be pretty gutted if ramp kings like Steve Murr stopped posting here just because what is discussed doesn't come off, people like that make the forum an exiting read whilst also giving good example of what "could happen" if such synoptics "did verify".

People just need to get a grip and realize that what the "model output" shows post now casting... is 100% debatable and can change many times and not to overreact when things don't pan out as shown or discussed previously.

If you don't want people discussing things 10 days out, either don't come to the thread in first place or close the thread altogether. Closing the thread isn't really an option though is it, because it's the excitement of chasing the beast and discussing mega winter synoptics thats bring alot of the members here in the first place, especially during winter!.