The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[Eugene]

Spring frost is far more common than Autumn frost, due to the cool oceans keeping the land cool out of the sun, which is why in Spring the climate can become very continental, with warmish days and potentially frosty nights under constant clear skies. I've had a 17c afternoon followed by -1c overnight in April and it sort of reminds me of the Death Valley in Wintertime.

Yes a good explanation, spring is miles better for frosty nights than autumn and for snow as well actually, another reason for colder weather in spring along with slow warming of the cold sea is the cold arctic airmasses are also more prevalent to our northwest, north and northeast than in autumn, not unknown to get arctic air from a direct northerly in June even.

[A Winter's Tale]

And for the bit in bold, goodness gracious, why does it need to be as severe as the last 3?! 2009/10 was the coldest in 30 years, 2010/11 had the coldest december in 120 years and 2008/09 had a strong easterly delivering the most snow london had received since 1991. The last 2 winters especially have been rather abnormal... the thing that gets on my nerves is people expecting cold spells similar to the last few, which some of us will never see again (Jan 2010, Dec 2010).

I don't exactly mean an extreme cold spell. It could just be a cold snap lasting for 1 or 2 weeks with max temps of 3/4c and min values of -1/-2c with a few light snow showers, or a 4 day cold snap with quite a lot of snow. Basically a cold snap that's widespread, lasts for atleast a week, has everywhere see at least some snow and at least one or two snow events.

Now, February 2009 saw a lot of areas see quite a good deal of snow, but if I or anywhere were to experience what I had during that cold snap then I would consider that among the lines of the cold snap that I'm looking for: one day of heavy snow showers 3-5cm, rain and no lying snow, light snow and dusting, sun and chilly, sun and chilly, sun and chilly, frontal snowfall and 10cm.

[Froze were the Days]

It's not half way through winter and in my location 21 days that have recorded double figure maxes since the start of December! - must be the warmest start to a January for many a year, correct me if I'm wrong.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Froze were the Days

[Aaron]

Our local weather showing temperatures down to -4C and freezing fog.. yum!

And yes currently January 2012 is warmer then January 2007 but I suspect it won't be by months end.

Yes a good explanation, spring is miles better for frosty nights than autumn and for snow as well actually, another reason for colder weather in spring along with slow warming of the cold sea is the cold arctic airmasses are also more prevalent to our northwest, north and northeast than in autumn, not unknown to get arctic air from a direct northerly in June even.

Yeah, I've had some pretty wild temperature swings in April and May. Edited January 11, 2012 by Aaron

[jean91]

Just to say that i am glad to live in the suburbs of Paris : They only managed a 0.2c on the 19th december and for my area about 8 to10 miles south we managed a -2c on the 11th and the 19th december (Orly Airport).

So far it is close to being a record for Paris for the highest lowest temp so far into the winter!!!

Edited January 11, 2012 by jean91

[Summer of 95]

This winter I haven't yet seen what I'd call a proper frost. By that I mean

i) soil hard underfoot, any puddles frozen,

ii) a scraper/full blast heater not a wipe with the sleeve needed to clear ice from the windscreen at 8am

iii) ice crystals on all surfaces glistening in the sun/moon/stret light.

I have seen airfrosts, all 4 of them, but a 2011/12 airfrost seems to mean either ice forming at 11pm magically disappearing except for spilt Slush Puppies on cars at 8am (see above), or; a heroic drop to -1 just before dawn following a cloudy night, when frost hadn't formed before it was 5C by 9am.

Even 1994/95 had that week of frosty nights just before Christmas, and 1988/89 that cold November.

[Aaron]

If you've had air temperatures below freezing, you've had an air frost..

[Thundery wintry showers]

Anyway, the next few days are set to have bright frosty weather of the sort that characterised the third week of December 1994.

Still, it's worlds apart from the last three winters so far- a reality check perhaps?

[SnowObsessor90]

Anyway, the next few days are set to have bright frosty weather of the sort that characterised the third week of December 1994.

Still, it's worlds apart from the last three winters so far- a reality check perhaps?

To be perfectly honest if the general mild theme of this winter were to continue right through to the end then I'd just settle with a more typical british style one with mostly average temperatures and the odd colder interlude next year which says a lot really. Edited January 12, 2012 by Anonymous21

[reef]

Anyway, the next few days are set to have bright frosty weather of the sort that characterised the third week of December 1994.

Still, it's worlds apart from the last three winters so far- a reality check perhaps?

So far it has been as extreme as the last three winters but in the other direction. I keep a running winter index in my signature and so far with just 2 air frosts and no snow to speak of 2011/12 is scoring worse than even 1988/89.

Fortunately December was dry and very sunny, so thats a positive. Plus we've had a few periods of strong winds. However its undeniably a disappointing winter so far. Hopefully the second half will be an improvement and this winter wont take its place among the worst of the last 30 years.

[Eugene]

Spring is my favourite season, summer and winter seem so dull nowadays and autumn ridiculously warm at least in spring even in warm ones you get alot of cool to cold nights and like aaron says you get wild temperature swings we don't see in other seasons anymore, would love a day of 21C in April followed by a cold front bringing snowfall and air frost at night so much more interesting than the dullfest of this week.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Eugene

[Thundery wintry showers]

Actually I've found winter more interesting than spring in recent years (a notable exception being 2007/08, which had quite a variable spring). The past three springs have been dominated mainly by warm anticyclonic weather, with the only eventful months being May 2010 (contrasting temperatures) and April 2011 (exceptionally warm and sunny). Meanwhile, we can hardly claim that the winters of 2008/09 through to 2010/11 didn't have more than their fair share of noteworthy weather events.

Perhaps this season could turn out similar to 2007/08 in the sense of having a relatively uneventful winter and then an eventful spring, but anything more than 10 days out is very speculative as per usual.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[leicsnow]

So far it has been as extreme as the last three winters but in the other direction. I keep a running winter index in my signature and so far with just 2 air frosts and no snow to speak of 2011/12 is scoring worse than even 1988/89.

Fortunately December was dry and very sunny, so thats a positive. Plus we've had a few periods of strong winds. However its undeniably a disappointing winter so far. Hopefully the second half will be an improvement and this winter wont take its place among the worst of the last 30 years.

Could I ask how you calculate winter index? I would be interested to know.

Thanks.

[Eugene]

The models are pants tonight after next tuesday, yes ECM 12Z is great but its completely on its own, nobody would take notice of one run if it was the only mild run so the same should apply to this one cold run.

[Eugene]

But usually very pessimistic about cold charts retron is more confident of something nearer to ECM's evolution, brave call because after T+144 hrs it could easily go wrong.

[Bottesford]

Ah the moaning about winter thread... here goes...

"Oh winter you are so cold & dark you make me sad to get out of bed. Why can't you get me going like your nemesis summer?"

[SnowObsessor90]

Well I've more or less come to terms that nothing of real note is going to happen next week now.

As for the rest of the winter well I really do not care not care any more, if it snow's then great but if not no big deal, if its not as if we should be really expecting anything more anyway bar the last few years which seem to have fooled us.

Who's willing to bet that we'll finally get our much sought after northern blocking in the summer followed by endless southerlys/south-westerlies in the autumn and winter again lol.

Edited January 15, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Snowy Easterly]

Well I've more or less come to terms that nothing of real note is going to happen next week now.

As for the rest of the winter well I really do not care not care any more, if it snow's then great but if not no big deal, if its not as if we should be really expecting anything more anyway bar the last few years which seem to have fooled us.

Who's willing to bet that we'll finally get our much sought after northern blocking in the summer followed endless southerly s/south-westerlies in the autumn and winter again lol.

yep northern blocking will come back at some point and i bet it will be in summer again, then come winter raging mild zonality will strike back.

[Aaron]

Now this 'mild blip' looks like being not-such-a blip after all - I really need to book a holiday to Greece or somewhere cold and snowy

Edited January 17, 2012 by Aaron

[rich1]

Looking at the general theme of the outputs I would say that cooler/coldish snaps in the second half may be more apparent than in the tedious first half

but on the whole I am strongly leaning towards this winter being succinctly described in future years as 'dump' by which I dont mean the amount of snow kind of 'dump', more the tip at the other end of town/stuff that comes out of people's bottoms kind of 'dump'

hoping next year will be an improvement, but have to say am not sorry I aint in the UK at the moment. Christmas was a real Milan Jovanovic of a festive period for weather, and January this year has been pretty poor really

Edited January 17, 2012 by rich1

[SnowObsessor90]

Well if you look at the METO update then all might not be lost just yet.

Had my belly full of the model's though particularly the ECM, we had several people going on here about how reliable it was in the closer time frame well it's turned out to be anything but, the GFS hasn't exactly covered itself in glory either where it's flipped from first cold, to very mild then somewhere in between and then mild again and so so forth.

To sum up they've been as useful as a plank of wood other the last week or so and I will be a lot more wary of giving them much credence when it comes to any potential pattern change in the near future unless they can successfully bring it into the reliable rather than just showing us something for a bit before reverting back to zonal like they have been doing.

Who know's that time could be right around the corner but if I were to hedge my bets then it would be more towards a continuous jam tomorrow scenario.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Anonymous21

[keithlucky]

Its a bloomin disgrace how the met can print 2 possible weather forecasts possible rain possible snow possible mild possible cold what are they paid for ?In 30 yrs of weather watching i have never seen a forecasts like these.

Edited January 17, 2012 by keithlucky

[conor123]

This month is heading for being worse than last January now, at least last year we had some heavy snow even if it did turn to rain by the afternoon on Friday 7th.

Friday 16th December is the only day to produce something wintry so far and that was only 15 minutes of sleety snow which never stuck..

[Gord]

I'm doing my very best to stay optimistic this winter.

But I'm finding it more and more difficult. There is a huge part of me that wants to rant about how rubbish this winter is and how nothing seems to be coming to fruitition and winter is over etc etc. But I feel it's too early yet...

Maybe today's gloom has got to me.

[Froze were the Days]

After initial optimism this morning with a possible easterly showing it's teeth it's all gone rather pear shaped again (that didn't take long). We'll see what tomorrow brings.