The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[Terminal Moraine]

That's why you do NOT go walking on the hills when it's blowing a gale.. it's actually dangerous!

It was hard work early this morning when I went out onto the moor at the back of the house with my trusty anemometer, I certainly wouldn't have wanted to walk along a narrow ridge.

Thankfully it's a wide open flat plateau so if I get blown over it's nothing more than an exhilerating nuisance.

[fromey]

Afternoon everyone,i think we will get something of a cold spell but it will to little to late, i wouldnt be surprised if we get the -nao and blocking right when we dont want it

[La Bise]

TM, what part of the PD are you based?

Last time I had the anenometer out was on Shutlingsloe on Xmas Eve, steady 35-40mph. It did not seem to bother a large party celebrating a birthday...

[rich1]

Going back out to tropicana on Sunday

My summary of the winter weather I have seen this year: the biggest load of absolute and utter jaff I have ever had the misfortune to witness in living memory

wind, rain and filthy mild weather destroying our xmas and new year festive feeling. 14c on both days, it was as if Sian Lloyd rubbed a lamp and got her 3 wishes. Absolute purgatory

still, at least when I am back next year hopefully, it cant really get a lot worse than this past year anyway. A ultimate low point for lovers of cold winter weather, this xmas holiday has been utter crap

[Snowy Easterly]

Once again next week we see synoptics that we would want in summer, like when we had the euro high in september and october, albeit this time the zonal train shoves the high out the way fairly quickly.

again i will say i bet we typically get nice winter synoptics come march or april when it is pointless unless you live on high ground.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

in the south, I dont really think this can be classed as winter, just been autumn really from around 5th 0ct

todays weather very similar to 12th Sep with hurricane katia

[Snowy Easterly]

in the south, I dont really think this can be classed as winter, just been autumn really from around 5th 0ct

todays weather very similar to 12th Sep with hurricane katia

We usually only get 2 seasons anyway spring and autumn.

[Tn9]

This might sound a bit ,i don't know indifferent maybe ,i love a bit of cold,we need cold ,like warmth ,but this is as it is ,The November average monthly temperature in Norway was 4.6°C (8.3°F) above average, making this month the country's warmest November since records began in 1900. The average temperature for Northern Norway was 5.3°C (9.5°F) above normal, also a new November record. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for November 2011 was the 12^th warmest on record at 13.35°C (55.81°F), which is 0.45°C (0.81°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.9°C (55.0°F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.07°C (0.13°F).According to the UK Met Office, November 2011 was the second warmest November on record for the United Kingdom, Behind 1994, at 2.9°C (5.2°F) above normal. Provisionally, Scotland recorded its warmest November on record.

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent — which is measured from passive microwave instruments onboard NOAA satellites — averaged for November 2011, was 10.01 million square km ( 3.86 million square miles). The monthly extent was 11.48 percent below the 1979-2000 average and ranked as the third smallest November Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent on record, behind 2006 and 2010. November 2011 is the 18^th consecutive November and 126^th consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent has decreased at an average rate of 4.7 percent per decade. The NSDIC reported that at the end of the month, the ice extent across the Chukchi, Barents, and Kara seas was below average. The Hudson Bay continued to be mostly ice free, which is typically ice covered at the end of November. Near-average ice coverage was observed in the East Greenland and Bering seas.

November's Southern Hemisphere

Sea Ice Extent plot

Southern Hemisphere November sea ice has increased at an average rate of 0.6 percent per decade, with significant inter-annual variability.

The Antarctic polar vortex is more pronounced and persistent than the Arctic one

May be ,its trying its hardest to keep things from falling apart

[feb1991blizzard]

We usually only get 2 seasons anyway spring and autumn.

Come on snowy, you do get a summer when we have a normal year, if you dont get a summer then we certainly dont!!! saying that, the less heat the better, by the way just run through the snow events you have had since and including feb 2009 please, i think you did tell me but i cant remember, im just curious if you have actually done that much worse than me snow wise.

[cheshire snow]

Nothing to moan about things starting to fall into place for the last third of January

sit back and enjoy the ride its going to get intresting.

C.S

[damianslaw]

I'm refraining from moaning about the weather this winter so far - yes the last two and a half weeks have been too mild and too wet and windy for my liking but I agree with others at least we are having some weather to talk about unlike the snorefest that was October and November with the horrendous limpet euro high seemingly trapped in situ.

But I will say the christmas week between 24th Dec and 1st Jan was very unseasonal one of the worst and it was sods law the colder set up of the first half of December came to a crashing end on the 20th. Whats the betting we see a white easter this year - certainly worth a flutter I say..

[leicsnow]

It seems to me that this is the time that everyone was talking about that patterns for the remainder of the winter would become more obvious...

[SnowObsessor90]

Now this could turn out to be complete and utter twaddle but does anyone else get that sinking feeling that the models might have already picked up the general theme for beyond next week i.e cool/cold zonal before reverting back to the dirge we've had over the last few weeks?

If things did pan out that way then no It wouldn't be the end of winter but what it could very well do is push the date for a potential pattern change further and further back decreasing the chances of a proper sustained cold spell more and more as we go along possibly all the way to the back end of February/early March and this is assuming we get anything in the way of cold and snow at all which in itself might not even happen.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that but that possibility is one I fear and sadly a very probable outcome as things stand.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Richard2901]

Was forecast an air frost of -1C last night which is actually something to get excited about in this unrelentingly dire winter. However due to the wind all that happened was the temp got stuck on 3C all night with a late drop to 2.0C around sunrise http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sleep.png

Last air frost was 19^th December, 18 days ago and the outlook is for more of the same unrelentless zonal tripethat has made winter so far as interesting as a coma. Had practically nothing but west or south west winds since late November and this is reflected in an astonishing total of just 3 sunless days in over 6 weeks. All you ever get here with this zonal set up is wind and sun – very little rain, frost or snow. Nothing of interest for winter and an insult after another dire summer in which wind from the SW quarter was virtually absent.

Looks like we could easily make close to 4 weeks without an air frost which would be the worst spell of winter weather since 1988/89. In fact it’s probably even worse than that because back then it was far more pleasant -exceptionally mild with highs often in double figures and scarcely below 8C whereas this year few days have been that mild mostly 5-7C but even with maxes of 3C a frost hasn’t been achieved because of the unrelenting wind which has made this a horrible and unpleasant winter

I absolutely hate strong winds and can hardly recall a day in this vile season that has even seen moderate never mind light winds. Absolutely sick of it howling and rattling night after night and seeing static temperatures all night despite clear skies. Also lost count the number of times the temperature keeps rising after sunset making it milder at night than during the day

Something has to change fast if this winter is not to go down as the third season of rock bottom write-off dross on the trot

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Wind and rain,thats been the story of 'winter' here so far.

Im that desperate id be happy for a spell of dry weather i dont care if its mild.

[MP-R]

Your 5-6 year pattern is quite interesting the next on the list would be 88/89 or 89/90 certainly two very mild winters, and prior to these it would be 82/83 or 83/84 - mmm the pattern doesn't quite hold but both winters contained one notable mild month i.e. Jan 83 and Dec 83, going further back next on the list would be 76/77 or 77/78 pattern firmly broken.

The weather doesn't do patterns though and I think the second half of this winter will be a very different beast.

It's just an observation, granted haha and of course the weather doesn't choose patterns. Though I do hope the second half of this winter provides something of seasonal interest, preferrably before the final week of February. At least the majority of other notable winters such as those that I have listed contained a wintry spell of some kind in each month whether it be snow or inversion cold. This season however has shown nothing of the sort with only a brief below average period around the 16th December.

[Gord]

Have to admit, I'm now losing my faith in January seeing cold at the moment...at least for the next 2 weeks anyway.Just been reading some views of people who's knowledge and realistic outlook has helped me over the years, (I read their comments with interest as they have no bias towards any kind of weather, forecast what they see and hold their hands up if they got it wrong...and have called many events correct!). Not naming names but they are not necessary on this forum...but they see more of the same over the next week or two with little prospect of a change. When those people start mentioning cold, I'll start getting interested! Not to say the discussion in the model out thread on here doesn't interest me...it certainly does as it's a great tool for learning how to read the models. Some of you on here who have a preference towards a certain type of weather have been providing some really imformative posts which are well backed up and I hope they continue, (and those leaning towards a cold 2nd half of the month turn out to be correct!).

However, I'm still excited over the prospects for the very end of January, February and March. And what comforts me is when someone pulls up a chart for the 23rd January and say that it's still a long way away and much can change. Well if the 23rd January is still a long way away, then thats a good indication for me that we still have tons of time left!

So the majority of January is a write off for me....but Winter 2011/2012 isn't yet!

Edited January 7, 2012 by Gord

[Aaron]

I won't give up on cold and snow until April.. even in April I'll still look for some snow showers.

[conor123]

Why on why every single year do we get these high pressure systems that would be perfect for Summer at the wrong time of year haha, so gutting.

Also it seems here not only did we fail to get summer last year but winter seems to be bypassing us to now http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.png

[Eugene]

41 minutes ago

I won't give up on cold and snow until April.. even in April I'll still look for some snow showers.

You would of liked Feb 1978 and April 1978, i actually think we'll see more air frosts in April and May this year than last years November and December.

Conor HP gives the coldest nights in winter you know

I'm feeling more upbeat today about our late winter prospects

Edited January 7, 2012 by Eugene

[MP-R]

Well a crumb of comfort that I keep having to remind myself of is how late some cold spells have arrived. In 2006/2007, it was dire up until January 21st then there was a snowfall on the 24th then another on February 8th. At the other extreme, 1990/1991 didn't produce any meaningful cold here anyway until the final third of January with the first snow arriving here on January 30th and then we all know what happened after that.

2001 even produced a notable cold spell for a lot of March with a considerable snowfall as late as the 21st during the day! However, by late February/March it really needs to be a cloudy spell if lasting snow is what someone is after.

Meanwhile - today feels like spring!

[damianslaw]

Suspect this thread will become clogged up by more moaning threads in the next week as the models continue to suggest no hints of colder weather in the reliable timeframe - however, I very much expect peoples' moods to start changing markedly through the third week of the month as the models finally start to react to longer term northern hemispheric pattern changes and hint at some colder evolutions at long last. For those who have the faith and remain patient -I'd refrain from reading this thread in the next week or so - it will only test your own patience in a very different way, I know I'll not be reading this thread.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Conor HP gives the coldest nights in winter you know

Generally speaking it does- indeed the coldest spell of January 1963 across the CET zone occurred via "inversion cold" under an anticyclone. We can also get very cold nights under slack low pressure areas as happened during the second of our cold spells last December, but this does tend to require a relatively blocked pattern.

2001 even produced a notable cold spell for a lot of March with a considerable snowfall as late as the 21st during the day! However, by late February/March it really needs to be a cloudy spell if lasting snow is what someone is after.

Cloud cover certainly helps towards retaining snow cover at that time of year, but it's worth noting that in the March 2001 spell, here in Cleadon we had an 8cm accumulation on the 2nd March and about half of it was still lying at dawn on the 5th despite two days of almost unbroken sunshine, and it was a similar story across the Scottish Lowlands, Aberdeenshire, and in parts of eastern England as far south as East Anglia. The phenomenon occurred more widely in early March 1970 when a major snowfall in southern England was followed by a week of snow cover despite sunshine.

The two conditions that we need for snow cover retention in sunshine in March are a deep snow cover (a thin snow cover will tend to get "gaps" exposed in it which accelerates thaw rates, especially in strong sunshine) and an airmass cold enough to prevent the strong sun from lifting the temperature more than a few degrees above freezing. However, it's true that most bright snowy spells in March are characterised by rapid thaws in the sun- both ends of March 1995 in Tyneside were characterised by accumulations during snow showers and thaws during subsequent sunny intervals, and Easter 2008 was similar.

I recall a few cloudy snowy spells in recent Marches but they tended to be marginal, such that the dew point crept above freezing during the daytime and initiated a thaw. The one notable exception occurred in the second week of March 1996, but Cleadon only got a couple of centimetres from that so it still didn't last long.

[damianslaw]

Generally speaking it does- indeed the coldest spell of January 1963 across the CET zone occurred via "inversion cold" under an anticyclone. We can also get very cold nights under slack low pressure areas as happened during the second of our cold spells last December, but this does tend to require a relatively blocked pattern.

Cloud cover certainly helps towards retaining snow cover at that time of year, but it's worth noting that in the March 2001 spell, here in Cleadon we had an 8cm accumulation on the 2nd March and about half of it was still lying at dawn on the 5th despite two days of almost unbroken sunshine, and it was a similar story across the Scottish Lowlands, Aberdeenshire, and in parts of eastern England as far south as East Anglia. The phenomenon occurred more widely in early March 1970 when a major snowfall in southern England was followed by a week of snow cover despite sunshine.

The two conditions that we need for snow cover retention in sunshine in March are a deep snow cover (a thin snow cover will tend to get "gaps" exposed in it which accelerates thaw rates, especially in strong sunshine) and an airmass cold enough to prevent the strong sun from lifting the temperature more than a few degrees above freezing. However, it's true that most bright snowy spells in March are characterised by rapid thaws in the sun- both ends of March 1995 in Tyneside were characterised by accumulations during snow showers and thaws during subsequent sunny intervals, and Easter 2008 was similar.

I recall a few cloudy snowy spells in recent Marches but they tended to be marginal, such that the dew point crept above freezing during the daytime and initiated a thaw. The one notable exception occurred in the second week of March 1996, but Cleadon only got a couple of centimetres from that so it still didn't last long.

March 2004 also saw long lasting snow cover on low ground in the opening days of the month. I was working in Sunderland at the time and living in Newcastle and I remember after a good fall of snow on the 28th - up to 6 inches in Sunderland itself the snow stuck around until the 4th/5th with only a limited thaw and that was under bright clear skies. Uppers were cold thanks to an arctic airmass. It was a notable snowfall for the Sunderland area I seem to remember.

[conor123]

You would of liked Feb 1978 and April 1978, i actually think we'll see more air frosts in April and May this year than last years November and December.

Conor HP gives the coldest nights in winter you know

I'm feeling more upbeat today about our late winter prospects

Well it hasn't this winter and it never last winter after December, I was on about those high pressure systems that would bring sunny warm weather in the summer but bring the low cloud and drearyness.

Even most of the clear nights this winter have been frostless!