The Winter emotions and moaning thread

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Pretty much sums things up from my perspective Reef.

I would love some snow and frosts whilst the days are short,as old as i am.

I do find it sad that i have to wear my objectivity hat in the MOD thread-when analyising the Zonal outlook currently showing in the output.

I can understand some coldies picking on the slightest sign of cold output but it doesn`t change the current outlook i regret to say.

lol Phil i dont mind saying how it is in any thread although i fear my posts for the next 10days at least are going to belong in here so expect the post count in here to quadruple in number of the next week or so.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ian Brown did say, it would be one of the mildest xmas days ever, IB is miles more realistic than these fantasy forecasters like Mark Vogan, James madden and piers corbyn

[leicsnow]

Ian Brown did say, it would be one of the mildest xmas days ever, IB is miles more realistic than these fantasy forecasters like Mark Vogan, James madden and piers corbyn

I think it is a bit unfair to include Mark Vogan in that list (although I agree with JM and PC as 'fantasy forecasters'). Mark fully explains his methods, and actually timeframes things instead of saying 'snow and cold throughout' like Madden. He also fully admitted he got it wrong and explained why he got it wrong, while James for once did admit to being wrong but just said it was because he didn't forecast from the models and mild was what they were showing for Christmas.

[Isolated Frost]

I think it is a bit unfair to include Mark Vogan in that list (although I agree with JM and PC as 'fantasy forecasters'). Mark fully explains his methods, and actually timeframes things instead of saying 'snow and cold throughout' like Madden. He also fully admitted he got it wrong and explained why he got it wrong, while James for once did admit to being wrong but just said it was because he didn't forecast from the models and mild was what they were showing for Christmas.

Mark Vogan was not very realistic, he predicted cold and snow to gain attention... and then got it completely wrong. Even if he did admit he was incorrect he only said cold for attention... IB has done rather well, but I believe his 'even larger teapot' approach will mean that he will usually have a 60-40 mild-cold bias, when added to the charts... sometimes this is necessary to gain some focus on the models and some needed realism, but I believe he will be wrong this winter... I see notably cooler conditions in late Jan- early Feb.

[leicsnow]

Mark Vogan was not very realistic, he predicted cold and snow to gain attention... and then got it completely wrong. Even if he did admit he was incorrect he only said cold for attention... IB has done rather well, but I believe his 'even larger teapot' approach will mean that he will usually have a 60-40 mild-cold bias, when added to the charts... sometimes this is necessary to gain some focus on the models and some needed realism, but I believe he will be wrong this winter... I see notably cooler conditions in late Jan- early Feb.

I may just be being naive, but I generally don't believe he forecasted anything for "attention". In a friendly way I would like to ask you what makes you think he did? However, I agree with your verdict on Ian Brown. His outlook looks pretty accurate in the short term at least, probably mid term.

Also, I'm gathering from the fact that you see notably cooler condictions in late Jan/early Feb that you are predicting in a different way to your original forecast (which predicted a milder end to January, with the cold before)? I would be interested to see your updated forecast.

And sorry mods for not using this thread to moan (makes a change from you getting annoyed at people moaning on other threads eh?)

Edited December 26, 2011 by Tellow

[Isolated Frost]

I may just be being naive, but I generally don't believe he forecasted anything for "attention". In a friendly way I would like to ask you what makes you think he did? However, I agree with your verdict on Ian Brown. His outlook looks pretty accurate in the short term at least, probably mid term.

Also, I'm gathering from the fact that you see notably cooler condictions in late Jan/early Feb that you are predicting in a different way to your original forecast (which predicted a milder end to January, with the cold before)? I would be interested to see your updated forecast.

And sorry mods for not using this thread to moan (makes a change from you getting annoyed at people moaning on other threads eh?)

Yeah- I think that the cold will set in a couple of weeks later than I predicted, and will end later aswell giving a colder February, with a larger continental influence.

[Costa Del Fal]

I dont see why people seem to think Winter suddenly stops at the end of February. Wintry weather can easily be present in March and even the beginning of April. Impatience is peoples problem here.

Anyway, if this Winter is more normal or milder then perhaps we may return to better summers where the winters then seemed to be more similar to this one (Thus far).

Edited December 26, 2011 by Blizzards

[jean91]

I dont see why people seem to think Winter suddenly stops at the end of February. Wintry weather can easily be present in March and even the beginning of April. Impatience is peoples problem here.

Anyway, if this Winter is more normal or milder then perhaps we may return to better summers where the winters then seemed to be more similar to this one (Thus far).

Very true, i remember vividly March 2005 on the morning of the 1st March we had -9c, not sure if monthly record or daily record for Orly airport.The lowest winter spring( meteorological one) temp.And it was with snow too.I remember it also as we had 22c just barely 2 weeks later!!!!! also nearing record or daily record.

The end of February was cold too.

Edited December 26, 2011 by jean91

[Mark Neal.]

I think febrrruary will be the month for sustained snow and cold

[syed2878]

happy new year every1. I see lot of people on here going for cold and snow in jan and feb. Looking at some of the models and met 30day outlook they not forecasting any cold accept the north i hope we get out of this mild weather soon. It doesn't fiel rite for this time of year. This kind of weather should be kept for march to september.

[Mark Neal.]

happy new year every1. I see lot of people on here going for cold and snow in jan and feb. Looking at some of the models and met 30day outlook they not forecasting any cold accept the north i hope we get out of this mild weather soon. It doesn't fiel rite for this time of year. This kind of weather should be kept for march to september.

As much as this weather is more settled than having heavy rain and low pressure systems in the South, its been considerably cloudy for last 5 days now. Would much rather have showery conditions at least there's some sunshine then.

[A Winter's Tale]

I may just be being naive, but I generally don't believe he forecasted anything for "attention". In a friendly way I would like to ask you what makes you think he did?

NO NO NO Tellow! He was quite obviously trying to get attention and his extreme forecast was just his way of make or break by risk taking (however I do agree that he's far better than Corbyn and Madden and more like a normal forecaster with regular updates on daily weather, however his Freeze forecast was just an improvised go at the lottery).

But Tellow, there needs to be some common sense here!!!!!

Extreme cold on same month three years running - HAS IT EVER HAPPENED? [answer] = errr, NO!.

HOW MANY TIMES HAS IT BEEN -20C IN SCOTTISH CITIES? [answer] = hmmmm, Once!

HAS TEMPERATURES OF -30C EVER BEEN OFFICIALLY RECORDED? [answer] = No, -27.?C is the coldest!

IS FORECASTING EXTREME WINTER WEATHER WHEN NO MODLES SUPPORT IT FEASABLE? [asnwer] = NO!

DOES EXTREME COLD LASTING FOR A LONG TIME COMMON? [answer] = NO!

It's obvious that he was trying to get attention and to please cold and snow fans and certain gullible people that I can Think off.....

There was nothing to support it, it was a risk of something that had no support with just a case of coming out of the blue.

Is he a Good Forecaster? He's more normal and respectable than Madden and Corbyn.

GET IT!?

[leicsnow]

NO NO NO Tellow! He was quite obviously trying to get attention and his extreme forecast was just his way of make or break by risk taking (however I do agree that he's far better than Corbyn and Madden and more like a normal forecaster with regular updates on daily weather, however his Freeze forecast was just an improvised go at the lottery).

But Tellow, there needs to be some common sense here!!!!!

Extreme cold on same month three years running - HAS IT EVER HAPPENED? [answer] = errr, NO!.

HOW MANY TIMES HAS IT BEEN -20C IN SCOTTISH CITIES? [answer] = hmmmm, Once!

HAS TEMPERATURES OF -30C EVER BEEN OFFICIALLY RECORDED? [answer] = No, -27.?C is the coldest!

IS FORECASTING EXTREME WINTER WEATHER WHEN NO MODLES SUPPORT IT FEASABLE? [asnwer] = NO!

DOES EXTREME COLD LASTING FOR A LONG TIME COMMON? [answer] = NO!

It's obvious that he was trying to get attention and to please cold and snow fans and certain gullible people that I can Think off.....

There was nothing to support it, it was a risk of something that had no support with just a case of coming out of the blue.

Is he a Good Forecaster? He's more normal and respectable than Madden and Corbyn.

GET IT!?

Ok, thanks for the points. I have to admit his minima 'possible temperatures' shown in his original forecast did get me a bit, and he still thinks these are possible? Hmmm. I'm glad you agree he isn't as bad as Madden or Corbyn, because he really isn't.

[Snowy Easterly]

so frustrating watching the models atm churning out this zonal rubbish, that polar vortex will not shift, i bet typically we will have plenty of northern blocking in the spring or summer like the past few years have had.

:wallbash:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

so frustrating watching the models atm churning out this zonal rubbish, that polar vortex will not shift, i bet typically we will have plenty of northern blocking in the spring or summer like the past few years have had.

:wallbash:

yes its sooo frustrating and its pouring down with rain today just to add to the misery.if i were a better id wager a zonal distgusting jan(to go with the zonal dec)and you watch come mid to late feb the purples and blues over greenland will miraculously turn into oranges and yellows.

After the disgusting summer here i though maybe a decent winter would balance the books,what an idiot.

BREATHES.

Thats better,for now.

[Snowy Easterly]

yes its sooo frustrating and its pouring down with rain today just to add to the misery.if i were a better id wager a zonal distgusting jan(to go with the zonal dec)and you watch come mid to late feb the purples and blues over greenland will miraculously turn into oranges and yellows.

After the disgusting summer here i though maybe a decent winter would balance the books,what an idiot.

BREATHES.

Thats better,for now.

Well mid to late feb is still ok for snow, but come march i am not interested in it as it is pointless to me, the snow will be gone by lunchtime.

we always get nice summer synoptics in autumn or winter, and nice winter synoptics in spring or summer, why can't they just come at the right time of year lol.

what a shock the GFS 06Z is mild zonal mild zonal mild zonal

Edited December 29, 2011 by Snowy Easterly

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

yes its sooo frustrating and its pouring down with rain today just to add to the misery.if i were a better id wager a zonal distgusting jan(to go with the zonal dec)and you watch come mid to late feb the purples and blues over greenland will miraculously turn into oranges and yellows.

After the disgusting summer here i though maybe a decent winter would balance the books,what an idiot.

BREATHES.

Thats better,for now.

Isn't such a thing as 'balancing the books' in weather - but unfortunately looking at the GFS model outputs over the last month it is becoming very tedious viewing with a very positive NAO, as we've had 3 colder than average winters in a row I thought we'd be pushing it to have 4, something which I think wasn't experienced even in the 50's and 60's (I think). Fingers crossed though, we've got a lot of this winter to see out.

[chiller]

Well here goes my moan about the winter thus far! I had hoped that the last 3 winters, well 2008 > 2010 had broken the horrendous cycle that we had to endure between 1991 and 2007 (16 years of pain, at least in the SE!) Having glanced in the Model Output thread earlier today I was most upset as it seems we will have to put up with mild mush (or zonal) until mid Jan at least which then really only leaves 4 weeks potential (in the SE at least). I must have jinxed us cold fans back in early November when I thought "what the heck" and bought a snow shovel and a car that looks remotely like a 4x4 - just in case! What I am most surprised about is just the lack of any frosts in my location. Last Christmas I was walking in snow and looking at ice packs off the Kent coast - this year...... well there you have it, rant over. Roll on a mid Jan beasterly pleeeez lol !!!

[toggerob]

This time last year the whole UK was covered in a blanket of Ice and snow. Temps dropped to -19.6'c, ice froze in water pipes and water queues were all over Northern Ireland as people's taps simply froze up with the cold. What a contrast now to +14 degrees over Christmas and today gusts of 60mph battering northern & central parts, the only snow to be seen anywhere on the extreme scottish highlands.

I don't know wether it's a moan or a observation, but you've just got to love the variables between our winters sometimes. even though this one is far from over with...yet.

[leicsnow]

This time last year the whole UK was covered in a blanket of Ice and snow. Temps dropped to -19.6'c, ice froze in water pipes and water queues were all over Northern Ireland as people's taps simply froze up with the cold. What a contrast now to +14 degrees over Christmas and today gusts of 60mph battering northern & central parts, the only snow to be seen anywhere on the extreme scottish highlands.

I don't know wether it's a moan or a observation, but you've just got to love the variables between our winters sometimes. even though this one is far from over with...yet.

If it's an observation, it's not a very good one as the intense cold and snow ended around the 27th.

[conor123]

Spot the difference really between now and 174hrs time, charts are virtually identical with these breezy lows with no potential for any wintry spells south of Scotland and no high pressure to bring some pleasant sunshine either.

Everytime the potential for some decent cold air is close by e.g Sunday Night there's the next low out in the atlantic shooting north to blast it away unfortunately.

[Tn9]

Maybe,just maybe,the systems that be,are trying to keep the vortex strong,like a self preservation thing,to be honest,if so much bottled up cold floods out,warm has to be pumped back in,relatively speaking,and the arctic needs that deep cold at the moment for its self,be too greedy and there might be no arctic left to draw cold from,that's my way of looking at it,lol believe a strong vortex is the the last tool in the box.

[January Snowstorm]

This year so far has to be up there with the worst.

I just hope we dont get GP's Winter too late and instead of a mighty freeze there's drip, drip, drip

Winter 11/12 needs to happen mid Jan at the latest or else it might aswell stay away imo

[A Winter's Tale]

If it's an observation, it's not a very good one as the intense cold and snow ended around the 27th.

That's a bit....literal. Give the guy a break, he was only 24 hours out! lol

[feb1991blizzard]

so frustrating watching the models atm churning out this zonal rubbish, that polar vortex will not shift, i bet typically we will have plenty of northern blocking in the spring or summer like the past few years have had.

:wallbash:

I hope we do have plenty of Northern blocking in spring and summer, im a Northern blocking man all seasons, scandi in winter, greeny in other seasons though.