Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[summer blizzard]

Can someone clarify what the effect conditions in the Stratosphere have on our winter weather and how it's looking at the moment.

Thanks.

While not guaranteed a lot of the time stratospheric warming will produce -AO conditions afterward which correlate well with colder weather in the UK.

The stratosphere is running a little below normal at the moment which indicates no major cold spell on the horizon.

[phil nw.]

Latest view of the Strato Temp. at 30hpa at the Pole.

so we are still running slightly colder than average.

Looking at the ECM forecast temp. at T120

We have a warmer patch at mid-latitude forecasted in the next few days but nothing further north where we need it.

We have had these isolated warm patches forecasted before but nothing has grown from them up to now.

Maybe Chiono can confirm--nothing in the offing just yet that would disrupt the Vortex down the line.

[chionomaniac]

Maybe Chiono can confirm--nothing in the offing just yet that would disrupt the Vortex down the line.

No change in stratospheric conditions forecast today.

[picog]

I see the temperature has dropped rather more than we may want to see — hopefully just a blip.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[karyo]

I see the temperature has dropped rather more than we may want to see — hopefully just a blip.

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

The forecast is even worse so no just a blip I'm afraid!

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php

Karyo

[chionomaniac]

Don't worry. I have a feeling that it will pop like a balloon later on in the season.

[karyo]

Don't worry. I have a feeling that it will pop like a balloon later on in the season.

I hope so, The problem I have is that the best winters we had recently, had a warm(ish) stratosphere in November which helped with December cold. Now December looks like a lost month unless we get a mid latitude high for surface cold.

Karyo

[Mark Bayley]

Don't worry. I have a feeling that it will pop like a balloon later on in the season.

Lets hope so, judging by your sig are you expecting some sort of warming during the first half of January?

[chionomaniac]

Lets hope so, judging by your sig are you expecting some sort of warming during the first half of January?

Very few winters have managed to hold an extremely cold stratosphere the whole winter through and therefore there is always a chance.

Going in a warmings favour are the large Siberian snow cover that had built up by the end of last month, the repeated tenedency for Asian MTs and the increasingly favourable QBO as winter progresses. Aligned with this is the possibility that GP mentions of a stratospheric upwelling from around January onwards.

We shall see.

[Mark Bayley]

Very few winters have managed to hold an extremely cold stratosphere the whole winter through and therefore there is always a chance.

Going in a warmings favour are the large Siberian snow cover that had built up by the end of last month, the repeated tenedency for Asian MTs and the increasingly favourable QBO as winter progresses. Aligned with this is the possibility that GP mentions of a stratospheric upwelling from around January onwards.

We shall see.

Thanks for the reply, unfortunately i don't understand Asian MT's, QBO etc.. Still, i shall be following your updates with interest throughout the winter, hopefully making the odd contribution where i can!

[Glacier Point]

I think a warming event in January is a really good bet, and I suspect the noises coming out of Exeter are also picking up on this.

A lot of the analogues I'm working with suggest a tropsopheric disruption in January. We will also have a renewed burst of westerly winds across the eastern tropics timed for around late December, so some evidence for the factors which can help to bring about a warming event 'ganging up' for around this time.

The analogues also suggest a monster MJO in February which should really help things move along once or if the warming event is underway.

[picog]

I think a warming event in January is a really good bet, and I suspect the noises coming out of Exeter are also picking up on this.

A lot of the analogues I'm working with suggest a tropsopheric disruption in January. We will also have a renewed burst of westerly winds across the eastern tropics timed for around late December, so some evidence for the factors which can help to bring about a warming event 'ganging up' for around this time.

The analogues also suggest a monster MJO in February which should really help things move along once or if the warming event is underway.

That sounds like the really cold (snowy) weather may be reserved for very late in the winter time?

[kold weather]

The analogues also suggest a monster MJO in February which should really help things move along once or if the warming event is underway.

Interesting because La Nina's don't tend to produce much in the way of large MJO events, they tend to be subduded from what I've noticed over watching the tropics in the last 5 years or so.

I do agree with the chances of some sort of warming event in late December, I'm just not convinced the pattern will become conduisive in the Atlantic, we'll get blocking IMO...but in totally the wrong place for the UK. That's been my gut for a while for Feb. We'll have to wait and see, the first thing is to just try and get that warming then hope the o0ther factors play out nicely. If they do then the late winters of 54/55 and 55/56 may not be bad winters to compare it to.

[Glacier Point]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198501.phase.90days.gif

Here you go Darren..1984/5 in all its glory. Check that one out for a doozy.

[chionomaniac]

I think a warming event in January is a really good bet, and I suspect the noises coming out of Exeter are also picking up on this.

A lot of the analogues I'm working with suggest a tropsopheric disruption in January. We will also have a renewed burst of westerly winds across the eastern tropics timed for around late December, so some evidence for the factors which can help to bring about a warming event 'ganging up' for around this time.

The analogues also suggest a monster MJO in February which should really help things move along once or if the warming event is underway.

Here is a newer study that suggests that an increase in NA ocean-atmosphere heat flux through November to January gives an increased chance of an SSW (as well as the snow cover often cited) Do you know anywhere we can measure this?

The variability in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is analyzed in a multi-century simulation under constant forcing using a stratosphere resolving atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. A wavelet-analysis of the SSW time series identifies significantly enhanced powers at a period of 52 years. The coherency of this signal with tropospheric and oceanic parameters is investigated. The strongest coherence is found with the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere heat-flux from November to January. Here, an enhanced heat-flux from the ocean into the atmosphere is related to an increase in the number of SSWs. Furthermore, a correlation is found with Eurasian snow cover in October and the number of blockings in October/November. These results suggest that the multi-decadal variability is generated within the ocean-troposphere-stratosphere system. A two-way interaction of the North Atlantic and the atmosphere buffers and amplifies stratospheric anomalies, leading to a coupled multi-decadal mode.

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From here:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010GL045756.shtmle

[kold weather]

http://www.bom.gov.a...hase.90days.gif

Here you go Darren..1984/5 in all its glory. Check that one out for a doozy.

Probably not a bad match as well in terms of La Ninas strength to this one...interesting! That was one winter I used myself when I did try and find a good match in terms of the ENSO signal. We'll just have to wait and see how the stratoshpere evolves in the next month and how cold it ends up going.

[Glacier Point]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

try meridional and zonal wind fluxes - they seem to bring the Eurasian snowcover and North Atlantic factors together quite nicely.

[chionomaniac]

Cheers Stewart. Now I have to work out which are the best years to correlate.

[Gavin P]

I think a warming event in January is a really good bet, and I suspect the noises coming out of Exeter are also picking up on this.

A lot of the analogues I'm working with suggest a tropsopheric disruption in January. We will also have a renewed burst of westerly winds across the eastern tropics timed for around late December, so some evidence for the factors which can help to bring about a warming event 'ganging up' for around this time.

The analogues also suggest a monster MJO in February which should really help things move along once or if the warming event is underway.

I've been thinking for a while something like 55/56 could happen this winter.

Edited November 15, 2011 by Gavin P

[coldwinter]

Sorry to sound naive but can someone point me towards the analougues, the ones that GP uses or are they not availabile to the general public, and how can you predict when a renewed burst of westerly winds will hit. Also any other information will be most apprieciated.

Many thanks, Ryan.

[summer blizzard]

Cheers Stewart. Now I have to work out which are the best years to correlate.

I don't know about that particular measure however i can tell you that over the August-October period the closest analogues for the MEI, QBO, PDO and AO were 2007, 1970, 1967 and 1962.

With the exception of winter 2008 they were all pretty good stratospheric winters, especially late on.

Did any of the see SSW's?

[minus 9]

A quick question. Can we still get cold spells without a warming in the stratosphere.

[chionomaniac]

A quick question. Can we still get cold spells without a warming in the stratosphere.

Yes, the GFS FI evolution shows how.

Also there is a chance from continental cold.

Sustained northern blocking is less likely.

I don't know about that particular measure however i can tell you that over the August-October period the closest analogues for the MEI, QBO, PDO and AO were 2007, 1970, 1967 and 1962.

With the exception of winter 2008 they were all pretty good stratospheric winters, especially late on.

Did any of the see SSW's?

2007/2008 SSW in Feb after colder stratosphere Dec/Jan,

1970/71 SSW in Jan after colder stratosphere Nov/Dec,

1967/68 SSW in January after cold stratosphere November,

1962/63 SSW in Jan, CW in Nov.

Spot the theme?

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

Edited November 15, 2011 by chionomaniac

[minus 9]

Thanks chio

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Look at RJS winter forecast closely, one might see this fits

BFTP